Padres Report - September 30th

Padres Report - September 30, 2006

The Padres clinched a playoff berth on Saturday. On Sunday they have the chance to wrap up the NL West for the 2nd consecutive year and secure home-field advantage for the first round in the playoffs.

You know that already…

You and everybody else also already knows that Jake Peavy will start Game 1 on Tuesday (whether it’s in New York against the Mets or in San Diego against the Cardinals or Astros) and everybody also knows Chris Young will pitch Game 2. Now what none of us know, is whether the Padres will go with a 4-man rotation or a 3-man rotation and who will be the odd man (or men) out…

Let us look at the other three San Diego starters (alphabetically):

Clay Hensley

Season statistics:

11-11, 3.71 ERA, 187.0 IP, 174 H, 82 R, 77 ER, 15 HR, 76 BB, 122 SO, 5.87 K/9, 2.19 G/F, .259 BAA, 1.34 WHIP

We knew Clay was an extreme ground-ball pitcher… And with the Padres’ defense, that could be a huge advantage against lineups like the Mets throw out there or any lineup with a guy named Pujols in it… However, Clay does not have the experience that Wells or Williams have.

Other relevant numbers:

Since the All Star break:
6-5, 2.47 ERA, 83.2 IP, 74 H, 25 R, 23 ER, 4 HR, 36 BB, 66 SO, 7.10 K/9, 1.31 WHIP

And… In those five post-All Star Game losses, Clay allowed 2, 4, 1 (0 earned), 4, and 2 runs. So even when Clay loses, he usually pitches well.

David Wells

Season statistics:

3-5, 4.42 ERA, 75.1 IP, 97 H, 41 R, 37 ER, 11 HR, 12 BB, 38 SO, 4.54 K/9, 1.44 G/F, .338 BAA, 1.45 WHIP

David Wells has not pitched well this season. Despite Saturday’s win, I don’t see how anyone could conclude that he was a successful pitcher this season. Robinson Cano, the Yankees second baseman, is having a great year. He’s hitting .341/.364/.523. Cano is a very good hitter. Opposing hitters are batting .338/.363/.517 (very Cano-like numbers) off David Wells. Wow! Yet, David Wells has that “big game cachet” that players and media-types like to talk about…

Now even though David cost an arm and a leg, his presence may have been what the Padres needed (since his arrival the Padres have gone 19-9). Furthermore, while he has been ineffective, don’t forget the Glenn Hoffman-waving Boomer home in Wells’ first game as a Padre. It didn’t come up since then, but Wells did sprain his ankle. And it was only since Wells’ gout-induced game off that he said he felt 100% healthy from his bum ankle.

So if we only look at Wells first start and first healthy start since then, we’ve got:

Other relevant numbers:

Statistics from Wells' first and last games as a Padre:
1-0, 0.75 ERA, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, O HR, 2 BB, 5 SO…

David likely won’t continue to post 0.75 ERA, but then maybe there is something to that “big game cachet,” Robinson Cano or not…

Woody Williams

Season statistics:

11-5, 3.57 ERA, 138.2 IP, 146 H, 64 R, 55 ER, 19 HR, 35 BB, 72 SO, 4.67 K/9, 0.86 G/F, .268 BAA, 1.31 WHIP

Williams has been solid all season. And Sunday he’ll face Diamondbacks’ ace, Brandon Webb with a chance to clinch Padres’ second consecutive NL West title (and possibly derail Webb’s Cy Young chances). On September 1st, the Padres were four games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. While many players have come up big for San Diego in the final month, none have delivered as consistently as Woody has. In September Woody has gone 4-0 (with one “no decision” in a game the Padres did win).

Other relevant numbers:

September statistics:
4-0, 2.51 ERA, 28.2 IP, 28 H, 13 R, 8 ER, 5 HR, 9 BB, 12 SO…

Conclusion:

I don’t think the Padres will go with a 3-man rotation. I don’t remember the statistics, but last year when the Padres were in the playoffs, I heard or saw what Peavy’s statistics were when he’s pitching on 3 days rest. They weren’t pretty. When a team has the kind of depth the Padres have, it makes sense to take advantage of it. Now if the Padres sweep in the Division series, I think they’d skip the Game 4 starter and go back to Peavy in Game 1 of the NLCS (he’d likely have a day off while the other series wrapped up).

I think three why Hensley will be in the bullpen for the playoffs. One, Clay’s a rookie; and he’s not Justin Verlander or Francisco Liriano. He’s not carrying the ballclub. As such, the Padres won’t feel like they’re dependant on him to win a series. Two, Clay was “nails” last year out of the bullpen. If the Padres get into a game where the opposition cuffs around the Padres’ starting pitcher, the Padres would probably feel most comfortable handing the ball off to sinkerball pitcher, Clay Hensley. Third, while the Padres may never officially acknowledge it, they may feel pressure to allow their pricey trade acquisition, Wells, “earn it” in the post-season.

***

One last thing… I’ve talked (in Ducksnorts.com’s IGD’s, to friends on the phone and in person, etc.) about different playoff scenarios either as the Wild Card or as the NL West champion… Going “Ghost Busters” here and clearing my mind, I refuse to think of the “Marshmallow Man” and offer an “I hope the Padres face…” prediction/desired opponent. There are reasons to fear Houston, St. Louis, and New York. Under the headline, “Be Careful What You Wish For,” I don’t wish for anything. If the Padres keep winning, they’ll win the World Series. It’s as simple as that.

Go Pads!

Padres Report - September 28th

Padres Report – September 28, 2006

The Padres win combined with the Phillies loss guarantees the Padres of at least a tie in the Wild Card standings.

I was up when the Philadelphia-Washington game ended at about 11:00 PM Pacific Time (keep in mind, that's 2:00 AM East Coast Time). After the late start and later finish, the Phillies still had to get on a plane and fly to Miami for their 3-game season-ending series with the Marlins. Just a hunch, but I bet Charlie Manuel cancels batting practice to give the team some extra rest.

***

On April 25th, having pitched in his last game of the month, Jake Peavy’s ERA stood at 5.17. In May Jake posted a 3.32 ERA, in June it was 5.28, and in July it was an abysmal 7.13. Jake’s out of body experience ended and he posted a 2.87 ERA in August and a 2.43 ERA here in September. At the All Star break, Jake’s ERA was a disappointing 4.46 and two rough post-All Star games his ERA reached a high-water mark of 5.15. Tonight his season ERA ended up at 4.09.

Jake’s final line:

11-14, 4.09 ERA, 202.1 IP, 187 H, 93 R, 92 ER, 23 HR, 62 BB, 215 SO, .243 BAA

***

As you know the Padres and Dodgers each knocked around their opponents on Thursday. The difference, while the Dodgers scored 19, they also allowed 11. The Padres, on the other hand, scored 12 but held the Diamondbacks to 4 runs.

The Dodgers needed the following contributions:

Brad Penny 1.0 IP (left with back spasms)
Chad Billingsley 2.2 IP (gave up 6 ER)
Joe Beimel 0.0 IP (gave up a hit and walk and 1 ER)
Aaron Sele 0.1 IP
Mark Hendrickson 2.0 IP
Brett Tomko 2.0 IP
Eric Stults 1.0 IP

So while the Padres got 6.0 innings of 2-run ball out of their ace, the Dodgers had to scramble to get the win. The Padres bullpen badly needed a break and got one. With the typical expanded September rosters, Dodgers manager Grady Little did not have to unload the bullpen, he did have to use a few precious bullets heading into the Dodgers heated rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

"On a Mission" Takes on New Meaning

It’s Official…

The Padres have moved their Double-A affiliate from the Southern League Mobile Bay Bears, to the Texas League San Antonio Missions.

The Southern League is known to be kind to pitching and Texas League to known be hitter-friendly. Nelson W. Wolff Stadium, where the Missions play, has fairly ordinary dimensions (310” to the LF foul pole, 402” in CF and 340” to the RF pole – power alleys are unknown) but according to the 2005 Baseball Prospectus, it plays as quite the hitters park. According to their “Park Factor” matrix, a 1000 score is a neutral park, and 1000+ are pitchers parks, where sub-1000 scores are hitters’ parks. Wolff Stadium posted an 898 PF in 2002, an 897 PF in ’03, and an 893 in ’04 (I didn’t have the data for ’05 or ’06). Conversely, Mobile played as a slight pitchers’ park posting PFs of 1021, 1013, and 1002.

Padres Report - September 27th

Padres Report – September 27, 2006

Wednesday evening I told a family friend that it wouldn’t bother me too much if the Cardinals beat us… The way I saw it, I’d rather face a slumping Cardinals in the playoffs than the red-hot Astros.

Under the heading: Be Careful What You Wish For

The Padres lost. Now our comfortable 2-game lead is a much less comfortable 1-game lead after the Dodgers beat the Rockies.

Now, I’m wondering if I might rather face the Astros than see more of Pujols.

Heading to Thursday’s contest against the Diamondbacks, the Padres now face the daunting task of holding off the Dodgers (I still don’t expect the Dodgers to win all their remaining games) while resting a weary relief threesome. Hoffman had Wednesday night off, but Cla Meredith has pitched in the last four games and an obviously gassed Scott Linebrink has pitched in the last three…

The Padres need a win, they don’t want to allow the Dodgers to tie the NL West race Thursday, and they need to rest their primary relievers.

…It bothers me that the Cardinals beat us…

Padres Report - September 26th

Padres Report – September 26, 2006

The Padres’ .540 winning percentage equates to 87.6 wins… We obviously cannot win .6 games and with 5 games remaining, if I were betting man, I would predict two or three wins the rest of the way… Back to my September 21st comment, “I think 88 games will definitely win the division and 87 will probably win it.”

It’s time to start thinking about playoff match ups.

The Mets have clinched the East and let’s assume the Padres win the West. There are two potential NL Central winners: St. Louis (who holds a 1.5-game advantage) and Houston. And there are two potential Wild Card opponents: Los Angeles (who owns a 1-game advantage) and Philadelphia.

Let’s get greedy for a second (I ran out for groceries after the game and heard the Coach and Scanlan talking about this on the post-game show on Mighty XX, so I can’t get all the credit):

If the Cardinals and Astros finish within a half-game of each other, the Giants will have to travel to St. Louis for a make-up game on Monday, October 2nd. Then, if the game results in such a way to tie-up Houston and St. Louis, the Astros would play St. Louis on Tuesday to determine the NL Central champions… Wow… If all that happens (and at this point it’s not far-fetched) St. Louis could limp into the playoffs more than a little worn down…

Likewise, if the Phillies and Dodgers end up tied the Phillies would travel to Los Angeles to determine the Wild Card winner.

Now who plays who?

Glad you asked… The Mets have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With the best record in the National League, they would play the Wild Card team unless the Wild Card team hails from New York’s division. Thus, if Los Angeles wins the Wild Card, Los Angeles would travel to New York to face the Mets. If Philly wins the Wild Card, the Mets would face the division-winner with worst record (either St. Louis or Houston). San Diego (again, assuming they hold onto their division lead) will host either Philadelphia or Central division champs.

Whew…

A few thoughts on tonight’s win…

First, I thought the umpiring was horrific. There were bad ball/strike calls, the home plate umpire also was wrong on the Terrmel Sledge slide at home call… It was pathetic. And the Padres still won!

Second, our ‘pen is nails. Those guys are money. In 1996 the New York Yankees were facing the defending World Series Champion Braves in the World Series… No one gave New York a chance. Atlanta won it the previous year and had an even better season that year… The Yankees, behind some solid defense, decent starting pitching, patient hitting, and a killer relief corps beat the Braves.

Third, our offense is playing with a lot of confidence. Facing Chris Carpenter and trailing 2-5 in the seventh, it would be real easy for the Padres to mentally shut it down and say, “We’ll get ‘em tomorrow.” One two-run double by Josh Bard and another two-run double by Mike Cameron later and the Padres are up 6-5. I don’t expect the Padres to finish off a sweep on Wednesday nor do I expect the Padres to sweep the D’Backs to finish the season… But neither (or both) would surprise me.

The Padres, circa-2006, do not have as much offense as New York did that year, yet I can’t help but think about that New York team as I watch our Padres.

PRD Interview: David Freese

I had the opportunity to talk to David Freese, Padres’ 2006 9th round pick on Monday evening… I don’t write up interviews in a Q&A format, instead I’ll give you a recap of our conversation and sprinkle in a few quotes…

***

According to Baseball America, David Freese’s South Alabama team went to the playoffs preventing him from negotiating with teams as a fifth-year senior thus sending him back into the draft. I asked David which teams he was talking and if he was talking to the Padres?

He replied that he was talking to a “good amount of teams” including the Padres. He made a point to say that he was “really happy” his South Alabama Jaguars made the playoffs but not happy they didn’t make it out of the “regionals.”

Freese told me he was a Sports Management major in college and he still has “a couple” classes until he graduates. David stressed that his family takes education seriously and that he plans to finish soon.

The St. Louis area native (Wildwood, MO) attended Meramec Community College and was a 2nd team NJCAA All American his sophomore season. I asked David if he had playoff experience and if he had won championships at any level.

He excitedly told me that as a high school junior his team finished 2nd in the State Playoffs and the following year his team lost in the District Finals. He also reached the regional finals as JUCO player… He truly seemed excited about his team’s successes, which is always refreshing.

When I asked how he felt about being a part of the Padres system, he said he, “couldn’t be happier, I love it.”

We talked about the Padres’ system and he said Grady Fuson was stressing patience to the hitters. In fact, Grady Fuson was at the Padres’ Instructional facilities the day David and I talked.

When talking about things the Padres wanted him to work on, Freese said that he often would see a pitch he “thought he could drive but couldn’t.” And said that was something he was working on in instructs. I also asked David about what he thought his strengths and weaknesses were. He told me his work ethic was something that separated him from other guys. He said, “Playing everyday is more mental than physical.” He also said he took it as a challenge that he came in as a “player without a position.” But he does not want to move off 3B, “I love third base,” he said.

Heading into the draft, Baseball America reported that at least one (unnamed) team wanted to convert Freese to a catcher. He said the Padres have not spoken to him about a position change and that he has “worked his butt off” to get better and is taking “hundreds of ground balls a day to get better.”

David has hit 21 doubles, 3 triples, and 13 home runs in only 262 professional at-bats. I asked him if had any memorable home runs or big hit as a professional. He laughed and told me his first was memorable for a couple reasons. First, and most importantly, down by two, the three-run shot won the game for his team. Secondly, “I wasn’t supposed to be hitting.” The coaches wanted one player to pinch-hit and David went to the on-deck circle thinking he was supposed to hit. Well, all’s well that end’s well.

We talked a little more about “instructs” and David said that the biggest thing for him was just “gelling with the pitchers and other infielders and getting to meet the coaches.”

Lastly, David and I talked a bit about his off-season. He said he’s currently 216-220 and would like to be a little lighter so he can be faster yet “not lose my strength.”

He didn’t know if he would be back in Fort Wayne or in Lake Elsinore, though he said he did hear rumors…

***

I had a lot of fun talking to David. He was real down to earth. On a slightly humorous note, David grew up in the St. Louis area and grew up a huge Cardinals fan. We spoke as the first game between San Diego and St. Louis was getting underway. I asked he if was torn. Chuckling, he admitted he was…

The Pujols Strikeout

After the Padres took the lead in the top of the 7th, Allan Embree came in to work against Chris Duncan (who had already homered). After Embree struck out Duncan, Cla Meredith came in to finish off the seventh. The first batter Cla faced would be Albert Pujols.

Here is that at-bat:

• Channel 4 broke away from the action to put up a chart and as they came back, we saw that pitch 1 was a ball outside (I’m unable to determine what type of pitch was thrown here).
• 1-0 Cla throws a back-door sinker that comes back and catches most of the plate, Pujols takes – 1-1
• 1-1 Cla throws another back-door sinker that starts further off the plate and stays off the plate, Pujols takes – 2-1
• 2-1 Cla throws another sinker, this one starts on the upper-inside part of the plate and heads south and back towards right-handed batter’s box, Pujols swings and chops it foul behind him – 2-2
• 2-2 Cla throws what looks like a hanging slider (or a change – does Cla throw a change) that stays up and out of the strike zone, amazingly Pujols stays on top of the pitch and pulls this one foul down the third-base line… - 2-2
• 2-2 Knowing that Cla throws a slider, having yet to see a good one, and realizing that he’s set up for one, Pujols swings awkwardly at a sinker that starts on the upper-inside corner of the plate dives towards Pujols back leg. As I said last night, Pujols looked more uncomfortable on that pitch than I’ve probably ever seen him look.

Amazing!

Padres Report - September 25th

Padres Report – September 25, 2006

Earlier on Monday I wrote:

Assuming the Padres do win tonight, the Dodgers would have to finish 2 games better than the Padres out of the remaining six (i.e. if the Padres finish 4-2, the Dodgers would need to go 6-0 – or if the Padres went 3-3, the Dodgers would need to go 5-1). I think the Padres will the division, but a win tonight would take a lot of wind out of the Dodgers’ sails.

I do not see the Dodgers catching the Padres now.

SI.com’s John Donovan ranks the AL and NL bullpens among likely playoff participants. San Diego’s get top billing in the NL (Minnesota is #1 in AL).

***

Speaking of good bullpens, have you ever seen Pujols swing so uncomfortably at a pitch so close to his belt buckle that he has to let go of his top hand to get it out of the way? Cla Meredith may be banned in multiple states he’s so nasty… Right-handed hitters are “hitting:” .106/.131/.144 against him. Sick!

Sunday the Padres used Meredith in the 7th and 8th innings and Hoffy (obviously) in the 9th. Monday, the Padres used Meredith in the 7th and 8th (Cla came in with one out in the 7th and left with 2 outs in the 8th) and Linebrink to get the final out in the 8th and finish off the Save in the 9th. I’m guessing Meredith gets a much-needed day off on Tuesday.

By the way, Giles & Gonzales went a combined 2-5 with 4 walks, 3 doubles, 2 runs, 2 RBI, and 0 strike outs. Nice.

***

The Padres have a .538 winning percentage and are on pace for 87 wins. On September 21st I wrote, “I think 88 games will definitely win the division and 87 will probably win it.” The Padres are a 4-2 finish from getting 88 wins. 88 wins sounds about right…

Dodger Day Off

The Los Angles Dodgers have played 156 games. The San Diego Padres have played 155. Today the Dodgers have a day off while the Padres send David Wells (2-5, 4.80 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Cardinals’ Jeff Suppan (12-7, 4.07 ERA).

The matchup is not inspiring but the Padres need to come through with a win. Remember, when the Padres win the first game of a series, they’re 7-0 (in series wins) since the All Star break, furthermore, if the Padres win, they would lead the Dodgers by a resounding 2 games with only six to play. On the other hand, if the Padres lose tonight, they would fall to only 1 game up. A 1-game margin with six games remaining is not confidence inspiring. Only one game more however, provides quite a bit of confidence.

Assuming the Padres do win tonight, the Dodgers would have to finish 2 games better than the Padres out of the remaining six (i.e. if the Padres finish 4-2, the Dodgers would need to go 6-0 – or if the Padres went 3-3, the Dodgers would need to go 5-1). I think the Padres will the division, but a win tonight would take a lot of wind out of the Dodgers’ sails.

Manny in LF?

Manny may be available... Think they'd ask for Cla Meredith?

From CBS.Sportsline.com

Manny being Manny: It's cute when he plays and, say, stumbles into the Green Monster mid-game to take a leak. But it's turned into a mockery now, with Ramirez having sat out 23 of 32 games since quitting on the Red Sox by removing himself from the fifth game of the Yankees' sweep on Aug. 21. The MRI on his knee came back clean, yet Manny continues to not play on. He didn't play in the World Baseball Classic, he consistently skips All-Star Games and he's now disrespecting the Red Sox organization, players and fans daily. Boston has to trade him this winter, and it will be a fascinating story because no way can a potential trade partner fork over a marquee package based on Ramirez's huge contract and 12-year-old mentality.

I'm interested...

Padres Report - September 24th

Padres Report - September 24, 2006

I wasn’t planning on going AWOL while Hoffy made history, but my cable-modem died on me Friday afternoon. The good folks at Cox communication just got me back up running again.

I’m not going to get into the Hoffy-discussion. He’s amazing. He’s a Hall of Famer – easy. We’re lucky to have him.

***

I’m re-watching Sunday’s game and Steve Quis mentioned early in the game that Clay Hensley is not a strikeout pitcher.

Um, well, let’s look at some numbers…

2002 (Salem-Keizer - NWL): 82 IP, 84 SO (9.22 K/9 IP)
2003 (Hagerstown – SAL): 68 IP, 74 SO (9.79/9)
2003 (San Jose – Cal): 29 IP, 25 SO (7.76/9)
2003 (Lake Elsinore – Cal): 44 IP, 40 SO (8.18/9)
2004 (Mobile – SL): 159 IP, 125 SO (7.08/9)
2005 (Portland – PCL): 90 IP, 71 SO (7.1/9)
2005 (San Diego – MLB): 48 IP, 28 SO (5.25/9)
2006 (San Diego – MLB): 181 IP, 118 SO (5.87/9)

In every level except the majors, Clay has had a K/9 rate above 7.0… Now Clay isn’t ever going to challenge Jake Peavy for the team strikeout lead, but I do expect Clay to increase his strikeout rate next year.

Let’s look at some more numbers

July: 29.2 IP, 27 SO
August: 29.2 IP, 21 SO
September: 30.1 IP, 26 SO

In these last three combined months, Clay has compiled a 7.43 K/9 rate. That 7.43 rate is near what he compiled as a minor leaguer (7.97/9).

Earlier this season I theorized that the Padres would likely trade Clay this off-season. I’m beginning to hope that doesn’t happen. Clay, 27 years old, is heading into his prime. I think Clay can be a rotation-mainstay for years to come.

I expect next year’s rotation to look like:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. free agent
4. Clay Hensley
5. Woody Williams/Chan Ho Park

And I don’t expect that free agent to be Barry Zito (nor do I want it to be).

By the way, if you want to read a detailed account of the specifics involving free agency, check out Jamey Newberg's column over at MLB.com.

***

Now, let's go out and get game 1 against St. Louis!

Padres Report - September 21st

Padres Report – September 21, 2006

On Tuesday, after the Padres beat Pittsburgh in game 1 of the now completed series I wrote:

On Monday, July 17th, the Padres beat Philly in Philly
On Monday, July 24th, the Padres beat the Dodgers in LA
On Friday, August 18th, the Padres beat Arizona in Arizona
On Monday, August 21st, the Padres beat the Dodgers in LA
On Monday, September 4th, the Padres beat Colorado in Colorado

And the Padres went out and won game 1 of the series; for the first time at home since the All Star break and 6th time overall since the break.

Then, after Wednesday’s loss, I wrote:

The Padres made the task MORE difficult by not getting a win tonight. Thursday night, the Padres get the joy of facing Brandon Webb.

After losing game 2, I was a bit nervous about facing Brandon Webb with the series on the line. The Padres have still won every series they’ve played since the All Star break in which they won game 1.

Well as you know the Padres won Thursday night (hey, if you’re coming to my site for news, wrong site, I provide insight and analysis) to keep their half-game advantage (the Dodgers won too as you know). And like I told you back on September 14th, at that time, if the Padres won each series they’d win 88 games. Well they didn’t win the LA series, the split it, so if they win each of the remaining series, that’s 87 games. I think 88 games will definitely win the division and 87 will probably win it.

Woody was brilliant. I love how he knows what he wants to throw and when he has the chance to give Piazza the sign, he does. That take-charge attitude combined with his intelligence is fun to watch.

Woody’s line from Thursday:

5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR, 79 pitches

Typically, Bochy used Meredith in the leverage situation… Typical; Meredith came through. And Linebrink and Hoffy were Linebrink and Hoffy…

***

477. 477! Man! What a career! When Hoffy broke 400 I said that he was NOT a lock for the Hall of Fame (especially not because of his 400 saves). I argued that he was a strong candidate because of his 960 strikeouts compared to only 248 walks in 879.1 innings. He is a strong candidate because of his career 2.71 ERA. He is a strong candidate because of his save-conversation rate. Since the beginning of the 1999 season, Trevor has converted 91.1% of his save opportunities (I wasn’t able to find blown-save data from 1998 or earlier).

So now, that Trevor is on the precipice of tying Lee Smith’s Save record and he still has that sub-3.00 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched, and nearly four strikeouts for each walk.

Yeah, he’s a Hall of Famer…

***

Now, let go out and win game 1 against the Pirates!

Padres Report - September 20th

Padres Report - September 20, 2006

Some baseball experts will tell you that you can’t evaluate a trade after the fact. You have to give an evaluation when it happens. To do it weeks/months/years later is unfair, you’re evaluating the trade with information that those who made the trade did not have… While I usually agree with that sentiment, I think there are exceptions.

On August 31st I wrote, “…After initial frustration, I’ve come to the opinion that if the Padres are able to get deep into the playoffs, this might end up being worth it.”

David Wells’ 2006 Padres statistics:

0-2, 4.43 ERA, 22.1 IP, 29 H, 11 R, 11 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 11 SO

(The Padres are 1-3 in games Wells started.)

First, we obviously don’t know at this point whether the Padres make the playoffs, let alone make it deep into the playoffs… However, should we conclude that Wells’ production was worth our top prospect, George Kottaras?

Now I will admit that Wells has that big game cachet and his acquisition led to a 5-1 streak (the Padres are 11-7 since Wells arrived). And while a lot of fans look at statistics, there is an element of psychology to the game. So the players may have needed a “pick-me-up.”

On to tonight’s game:
I can deal with a loss (I didn’t expect them to go 13-0 & I don’t expect them to win the final 12), I can deal with the hard-charging Phillies who may make it necessary to win the NL West, I can deal with the inevitable mistakes that happen like Branyan’s throw from 3B in 7th that Gonzales couldn’t quite pick, what gets me going is the mental errors:

• Cameron not charging the shallow pop that Blum missed
• Wells not hustling to 1B on the cover
• Cameron and Ben Johnson not communicating and each holding up as a possibly-catchable ball dropped between them

The NL West is ripe for the taking. The Padres made the task MORE difficult by not getting a win tonight. Thursday night, the Padres get the joy of facing Brandon Webb.

Notes From BA’s AZL Chat

John Manuel, with whom I’ve exchanged many e-mails over the years, answered questions about the Arizona League (Rookie-ball) today on Baseball America.

I want to highlight a couple gems.

When asked about Cedric Hunter’s power and future lineup slot, Manuel said,

Best-case scenario may be a Mike Greenwell-Rusty Greer type, maybe below-average HR power for an OF corner offset by high OBPs and heady play. Getting a manager to nitpick and say something negative about Cedric Hunter was difficult. He earned a lot of respect.

I haven’t posted my Padres’ Top 25 yet, but I’ll give you my a quote from what I’ve written about Hunter.

While [Cedric’ power] could be an issue, if he continues to display the patience and strike zone control that he did in Arizona, he could hit 5 HR and be an asset.

Finishing off the chat, Manuel said, “The Royals and Padres had the most talented teams in the league, with the Mariners and Angels also right up there.”

Nice.

Padres Report - September 19th

Padres Report – September 19, 2006

Big win. BIG win!

Now step on their throat and finish it.

On Monday, July 17th, the Padres beat Philly in Philly
On Monday, July 24th, the Padres beat the Dodgers in LA
On Friday, August 18th, the Padres beat Arizona in Arizona
On Monday, August 21st, the Padres beat the Dodgers in LA
On Monday, September 4th, the Padres beat Colorado in Colorado

There are a few things worth noting here.

1. In the second half, when the Padres win the first game of a series, they win the series.
2. Yes, Tuesday’s win over the Diamondbacks is the FIRST time since the All Star break that the Padres have won a series-opener at home.
3. In those five series the Padres have gone 13-2 overall (before Tuesday’s win).

***

In the final game before the All Star break, Clay Hensley laid an egg allowing 7 runs in five innings. Then, in the first game back, the Padres were in a slugfest with the Atlanta Braves. Having burned through eight pitchers, Bochy called on Hensley. Hensley gave three runs, two earned, in his inning of work and Padres opened the second half with a loss.

Since then, Hensley has posted the following numbers:

5-4, 2.51 ERA, 71.2 IP, 63 H, 22 R, 20 ER, 3 HR, 35 BB, 53 SO

Clay is averaging right at 6 innings per start (5.97 to be exact) and allowing 1 & 2/3 ER per start and 1 HR for every 4 games started since the break…

If you were listening, I told you Clay would be an effective starter for the Padres this season (but I’d be lying if I said I expected this level of success).

***

On another note, I read Peter Gammons’ comeback/thanks for the support article on ESPN.com and noticed the following innocent comment, “Now that Mulder knows he was hurt from mid-2004 on and is having the problem repaired, he may be one of the most intriguing free agents.” Hmmm… If he is healthy, he might look good in a Padres uni.

Controlling Your Own Destiny

At the end of the Scott & Billy Ray Show this morning, they talked about the Padres controlling their own destination…

Scott correctly said (though I’m not giving him credit, he merely stumbled onto a correct answer) that the Padres control their own destiny. B.R. said that couldn’t be because the Dodgers were in first place…

However…

Current NL West standings:

Dodgers 78-71
Padres 77-71
Giants 74-75
D’Backs 71-78
Rockies 70-80

Notice that the Padres have played one fewer game than the Dodgers. On Monday, September 25th, the Dodgers have a day off while the Padres open their series with the Cardinals. The Padres have 13 games remaining while the Dodgers have 12… At the conclusion of that Monday’s game, then we talk about how many games ahead/behind the Padres are…

Padres Report - September 18th

Padres Report – September 18, 2006

That sucked…

4-0 lead in the 1st
6-4 lead in the 8th
9-5 lead in the 9th
10-9 lead in the 10th

The Padres can either sack-up or put their tale between their legs and wait for ’07.

Come on Clay, we need a big one!

Expanded Soriano Commentary

A couple days ago I said we should not` dismiss Soriano as a future Padre. He isn't the prototypical San Diego (Moneyball) type guy, but he could flourish here. Ken Rosenthal posted an article today mentioning Soriano’s impending free agency. In discussing potential 2007 suitors for Soriano Ken mentions the following teams: Cubs, Orioles, Giants, White Sox, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Astros, and Dodgers.

Here are four reasons why San Diego may be interested:

• He's a pull hitter. And as tough of a place as Petco is to hit, right-handed pull hitters actually do well.
• Secondly, with $20m+ coming off the book the Padres have money to spend.
• Third, while everyone expects SD to chase the hometown guy, Zito, the Padres lead the NL in runs allowed right now without a bunch of big name, big price tag pitchers, where the Padres need help, is in offense. And while Soriano doesn't take many walks, he does have 66 BB and has the 2nd highest VORP among LFers in all of baseball (Manny has 60.1 rating compared to Soriano's 53.2).
• Fourth, while SD has gone after a bunch of Red Sox' "idiot"-type good-clubhouse guys since Alderson's arrival, Bochy has a history of effectively managing guys with questionable clubhouse demeanors (Kevin Brown, Greg Vaugn, Nevin, Ricky Henderson, Klesko, etc.)...
  

Food for thought…

Padres Report - September 17th

Padres Report – September 17, 2006

Uncle Mo is on our side. Let’s track his journey.

Game 1 – Dodgers win 3-1 – Any time you win the first game of a series, they have the advantage; Uncle Mo dons Dodger blue.
Game 2 – Padres win 11-2 – Evening up a series is big, treating the opposing pitching staff this harshly is huge. Uncle Mo shows up at a Padres party, but doesn’t get too comfortable.
Game 3 – Padres win 2-1 – Uncle Mo buys a Peavy jersey.

***

I hadn’t really thought about it this way, but the ESPN.com (AP) recap from Sunday’s game begins with following gem:

“If it weren't for playing the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Diego Padres might be lagging in the NL West.”

San Diego's divisional records:

vs. Arizona: 5-7
vs. Colorado: 9-10
vs. Los Angeles: 13-4
vs. San Francisco: 7-12

…and the rest:

vs. NL Central: 21-11
vs. NL East: 16-18
vs. AL: 7-8

You know what though, it still adds up to 78-70. And last time I checked, that was good for 1st place in the NL West.

***

I’m actually somewhat glad that Cla Meredith’s streak is finished. The only way his streak could have ended better, was Cla had a 2+ run lead instead of a single run. But either way, we won… The point is, I don’t want Cla out there thinking, “This is going to end sometime, I sure hope it doesn’t end now.” Psychologists tell us that doing something for the greater good is easier than doing it for you. Now that the streak is finished, Now Cla’s effort won’t be divided by team vs. self (I do not think Cla was thinking of himself first, but I do believe he could have been distracted). And that is a good thing.

***

On July 26th, Jake faced the Dodgers. Including that start Jake has pitched ten times. Other than his disaster start in Colorado on August 27th when he was sick, Peavy has posted the following numbers in his other nine most recent starts:

5-3, 1.89 ERA, 62 IP, 39 H, 13 R, 13 ER, 20 BB, 59 SO, 1.11 GO/AO

Wow! Jake is averaging nearly 7.0 innings per start (6.89) in those nine games. Of course we omitted that one game in Colorado so let’s throw that one back in (it did happen after all):

5-4, 2.45 ERA, 66.1 IP, 47 H, 19 R, 18 ER, 23 BB, 64 SO, 1.20 GO/AO

No matter how we dice it up, since mid-July, Jake has dominated. It's good to have him back.

Look for Uncle Mo in Dodger stadium Monday night. I think he’ll be wearing that Peavy jersey.

Padres Report - September 16th

Padres Report - September 16, 2006

In the second inning after the Padres led 9-1 and Mike Piazza had just walked, Mark Grant astutely said that the Dodger’s manager, Grady Little, needed to save the bullpen for the rest of series. “He’ll try to get a couple innings out of certain guys,” Mark said (I did not verify that I have Mark quoted accurately, but that is approximately and contextually accurate).

The reason I bring that comment up, is that last night, when the Padres were down, Padres manager Bruce Bochy didn’t use any of his “key” guys to keep it close. Even better, Bochy was able to rest those same “key” guys Saturday night.

Scott Linebrink may not be the sexiest player on the Padres (he has been ripped by fans right and left and I know I have been guilty of feeling more than a little nervous when Linebrink entered a game) but he’s actually pitching quite well.

Let’s look at some of Scott’s monthly splits.

(Bear with me, I haven’t figured out how to put tables in here. And I want to reveal a few key stats not just show you the whole ball of wax.)

ERA

April – 3.75
May – 2.08
June – 3.09
July – 6.08
August – 3.38
September – 3.00

We all know ERA doesn’t tell the whole story, so let’s look at some other numbers.

IP - BB/SO

April – 12 - 3/9
May – 13 - 4/12
June – 11.2 - 2/16
July – 13.1 – 7/7
August – 10.2 – 2/10
September – 6 – 1/4

Anyone wonder if Linebrink was distracted by all the trade rumors?

OK, that was telling, let’s look at some more.

HR – WHIP

April – 2 – 1.17
May – 3 – 0.92
June – 3 – 0.80
July – 1 – 2.06
August – 0 – 1.47
September –0 – 1.00

Scotty has not allowed a home run since July 28th in Colorado. Hmmm…

I already showed you IP but let’s look at it again with the monthly hit totals.

IP - H

April – 12 - 11
May – 13 - 8
June – 11.2 - 7
July – 13.1 – 20
August – 10.2 – 13
September – 6 – 5

I was actually surprised how effectively Scott has pitched since July.

Back to my original thought, being able to rest the Meredith/Linebrink/Hoffman trifecta in games 1 & 2 of the 4-game set with the Dodgers was huge. The Padres now have a well rested ‘pen for the last 2 games of the set.

Linebrink may end up being the key to the rest of the Padres’ season.

***

Was anyone aware that Alfonso Soriano (.940) only trails Manny Ramirez (1.048), Barry Bonds (.991), and Matt Holliday (.954) in MLB LF (rating: OPS)? If we look at VORP Soriano moves into 2nd place among MLB left fielders (Manny has a 61.0 VORP rating and Alfonso has a 53.2 rating). How about this, was anyone aware that Soriano has 62 BB (granted 15 are intentional, but still)?

I think I would support going after Alfonso this off-season for a LF power bat.

Padres Report - September 14th

Padres Report – September 14, 2006

Tuesday: 6-7 vs. 5-10
Wednesday: 3-8 vs. 1-4
Thursday: 4-5 vs. 3-11

What’s that? Glad you asked, for the series the Padre hitters walked 13 times while striking out 20, the Reds 9 walks and 25 strikeouts. While on a game-to-game basis the higher walk or strikeout total won’t ensure victory or defeat, over a series and more importantly, a season, walking more puts more stress on the opponent’s bullpen and striking out less puts more stress on the opponent’s defense.

As we come down the final stretch of the playoff run the Padre hitters need to keep working the count, taking their walks, trying not to strike out all while the Padre pitchers try to prevent free passes and rack up a few strikeouts.

***

For kicks and giggles, I wanted to look at the complete list of series and whether or not the Padres “won” the series. The thinking behind the list is, if the Padres “win out” (not win every game, but win every series) they will reach the playoffs; heck, they’ll win the division.

Completed post-All Star game series (wins and losses in parenthesis):

Atlanta 0-3 (L)
Philadelphia 2-1 (W)
@ San Francisco 1-3 (L)
@ Los Angeles 3-0 (W)
@ Colorado 1-3 (L)
Houston 1-2 (L)
Washington 2-1 (W)
@ New York 0-3 (L)
@ Houston 2-1 (W)
San Francisco 0-4 (L)
Arizona 2-1 (W)
Los Angeles 3-0 (W)
@ Colorado 1-2 (L)
@ Arizona 2-1 (W)
Cincinnati 2-1 (W)
Colorado 3-0 (W)
@ San Francisco 1-2 (L)
@ Cincinnati 2-1 (W)

Upcoming series:

@ Los Angeles (4 games)
Arizona (3 games)
Pittsburgh (3 games)
@ St. Louis (3 games)
@ Arizona (4 games)

Right now the Padres have a .524 winning “percentage” which works out to 84.88 (ok, 85) wins… To get to exactly 85 wins, the Padres would win 9 of the 17 remaining games.

The Dodgers face the Padres, Pirates, and Diamondbacks at home and end with Colorado and San Francisco on the road. The Dodgers are currently 77-69.

Philadelphia hits the road for Houston and comes home for Chicago, Florida, and a 1-game makeup with Houston, then ends their season in Washington and Florida. Philly is currently 74-72.

San Francisco heads to St. Louis then Colorado and lastly to Milwaukee for four games before finishing their season at home with Arizona and Los Angeles. San Francisco is currently 74-72.

Florida goes to Atlanta, New York, and Philadelphia then comes home for Cincinnati and Philadelphia. The Marlins’ record stands at 73-73.

I think the Padre will get to (at least) 85 wins. Let’s assume they split with L.A. (2), win two out of three against the D’backs (4), two out of three against Pittsburgh (6), one out of three against the Cards (7), and split the final four with Arizona (9). That’s nine more wins for eighty-five total. Philly and San Francisco each would need to find 11 wins (out of 16) to match that, and Florida would need to win 12 of their final 16 to equal 85 wins… Keep in mind that the Phillies and Marlins still need to face each other 6 more times this season. If they split those six, the Marlins could only afford to lose one more non-Philly game this season while the Phillies could only lose 2 other games to get to 85. In San Francisco’s favor, the two teams above them (yes, the Padres and Dodgers) face each other for four and Dodgers still have to go to SF to visit, but I still think it’s too little, too late.

Now let’s look again at the remaining series for the Padres…

@ Los Angeles (4 games)
Arizona (3 games)
Pittsburgh (3 games)
@ St. Louis (3 games)
@ Arizona (4 games)

The Padres have won 10 of the 18 series since the All Star break… I think we’ll win the majority of the remaining series as well.

CBS.Sportsline.com’s Scott Miller was on Mighty XX Thursday evening and predicted that both San Diego and Los Angles would reach the postseason. I agree. As I look at the remaining schedules, there’s just too much ground to make up for both the Phillies and Marlins especially considering they had six games head-to-head and in his words, ‘Frisco “sucks.” He said their bullpen is awful.

I think it will be a New York-St. Louis-Los Angles-San Diego playoff. Who’d a thunk it?

Now, one last thing... Back to the "win out" comment. If the Padres "win out" (and let's assume they don't sweep a single series) they would win: 3, 2, 2, 2, and 3 games (12 out of 17 games for a total of 88 wins). Not bad...

Now, bring on the Dodgers!

Dodgers' Blue?

In about the third inning of the Dodgers-Cubs game, the 4-2 Padres win over the Reds became a final. And shortly after that, the Dodgers 2-0 lead turned into a 2-2 tie. In the sixth the Dodgers celebrated a J.D. Drew 3-run HR to retake the lead, 5-2. Then with two outs and runners on first and second, the Cubs’ Ryan Theriot singled in a run. Aramis Ramirez followed up the single with a 3-run HR of his own to give the Cubs their first lead 6-5. That score would hold and the Cubs went on to win and take the series 2 games to 1.

I’m an admitted amateur-psychologist, so I couldn’t help but evaluate some thoughts that have to be going through the Dodgers’ heads.

“We spanked the Cubs starter in game one and still lost... Then our bullpen couldn’t hold the lead AGAIN today. And that stiff Clay Hensley pitched THAT well in Cinci? What do we have to do to finish off the Padres? Now we get them at home… And they’re only a half game back? Shoot! We gotta figure out a way to beat these guys…”

Seriously though, the Dodgers cannot be heading into this series with much confidence. The only good thing going for them is that they do have a winning record at home (44-27). But even then the Dodgers are 3-11 against us and all of their 3 wins have come at Petco.

I’m excited!

Padres Report - September 13th

Padres’ Report – September 13, 2006

Peavy was particularly efficient Wednesday night. 59 pitches. 59!?!

Peavy’s line:

6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR, 59 pitches

Now he didn’t strike out as many hitters as he normally does, but one; we got the win, and two; he should be sharp for his Monday-finale start in Los Angeles.

Thursday’s game:

Hensley (8-11, 3.87) vs. Harang (13-10, 3.83)

The Padres need this game.

Come on boys!

***

Shameless plug to keep visiting my site: I now have 10 pages towards my Padres Prospect Rankings… Stay tuned.

Padres Report - September 12th

Padres’ Report – September 12, 2006

With their playoff-lives on the line, the Lake Elsinore Storm traded 0’s with the Inland Empire 66ers for three innings. Then, in the bottom of the 4th, Lake Elsinore scored 2 runs and followed that up with three consecutive 1-run innings for a 5-0 lead after seven. The Storm relief corps promptly imploded (with the help of a 4-error night by infielder Skip Adams) giving up 6 runs in the top of the 8th and 3 more in the top of the 9th going down 9-5…

Hitters:

Hi-A – Chase Headley --- 2-4; HR (1), R, RBI, BB
Hi-A – Nick Hundley --- 1-3; 2B (1), BB

Pitchers:

Hi-A – Manny Ayala --- 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

Ayala, the youngest player on the Lake Elsinore roster, didn’t have a season for the ages, but his playoff performance sure jumped out…

Over two playoff games Manny posted the following numbers:

13.1 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 14 SO, 0 HR

MadFriars.com’s Denis Savage wrote the following about Manny back in April:

He went 12-4 with a 3.05 earned run average in 22 games, including 14 starts for Mesa of the independent Golden Baseball League. He had three complete games, one shutout and one save. His 12 victories tied for the league lead, while his one shutout was tied for second, his three complete games were tied for fourth and his ERA was sixth-best in the league.

Congrats to the Lake Elsinore Storm on a successful season. Good luck next year boys!

Padres Report - September 11th

Padres’ Report – September 11, 2006

Facing elimination, and down by two going into the bottom of the 8th, the Lake Elsinore Storm scored twice to tie the game 3-3 and scored another run in the 9th to earn game 4.

Hitters:

Hi-A – Tim Brown --- 1-4; 2B (4), R, BB, 2 SO
Hi-A – Nick Hundley --- 1-3; R, 2 BB, SO

Pitchers:

…none worth noting…

Commentary:

I’d love to the Storm come back and take this series. Not because I like rooting for the Storm per say, but more because I want the future big league players on this team to get a feel for winning.

By the way, how ‘bout them Chargers!

Padres Report - September 10th

Padres’ Report – September 10, 2006

First and foremost, let's not forget the memory of September 11th. It was great to see our country rally around eachother after that attack and it is sad to see the utter lack of unity as we continue the war on terror 5 years later.

***

In case you were wondering why I didn’t post Saturday night, it wasn’t because I wasn’t writing. Between the last two nights I’ve made serious headway turning notes into prose. I’m well into my Padres’ top prospects article. I still haven’t decided exactly how deep I will go with my rankings, but it will probably be 20 or 25…

***

I think I am officially out of the prediction business…

“If I’m a betting man (and I’m not) I’d wager that the Mets would win games 2 & 4 and the Dodgers would win behind Mad Dog in game 3.”

So, of course, the Dodgers won games 2 and 4 while the Mets won game 3.

&

“I do think the Padres win the series…”

Oops…

Oh well, the Padres are still in front in the Wild Card and still close in the West. And it was good to see the offense go off. Let’s hope those bats stay hot as the Padres head to the bandbox-known-as The Great American Ball Park… We need some W’s boys!

***

On Saturday, Lake Elsinore lost its 2nd round opening game 2-1 in 11 innings. Starting pitcher, Chris Jaile pitched 7.0 innings of hitless baseball before being removed after walking the leadoff hitter in the 8th inning… Then, on Sunday night, Lake Elsinore lost game two 1-0 while being 3-hit in a nine-inning gem by opposing pitcher, Andrew Baldwin. While both losses are unfortunate, both were predictable. Saturday’s starter, Jaile, walked six in his seven-plus innings and Sunday’s starter, Josh Geer, walked four in his five and two-thirds innings… The more hitters who reach base, the more likely some of those hitters will cross home plate.

Hitters:

Saturday:

Hi-A – Chase Headley --- 2-4; 2 SO
Hi-A – Tim Brown --- 2-4; 2B (3), SO

Sunday:

…none worth noting…

Pitchers:

Saturday:

Hi-A – Chris Jaile --- 7.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 BB, 7 SO, 0 HR

Sunday:

Hi-A – Josh Geer --- 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

The Storm are one game away from elimination. They should watch a "Rocky" movie or something...

Padres Report - September 8th

Padres’ Report – September 8, 2006

Yuck. Two-hit in the heart of a playoff run? Yuck.

I predicted a 2-1 Padres series victory, but come on guys, don’t dig yourself a hole like this.

All right David, you’re known as a “Big Game Pitcher,” this is a big game. Step up! We need you!

Hitters:

Hi-A – Adam Bourassa --- 3-4; 2B (1), 2 R, RBI, BB
Hi-A – Nic Crosta --- 2-5; R, 3 RBI, SO
Hi-A – Chase Headley --- 1-2; 2 R, 2 BB
Hi-A – Tim Brown --- 2-4; 2 RBI
Lo-A – Will Venable --- 2-3; 2B (2), R, BB

Pitchers:

Lo-A – Greg Burke --- 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

Lake Elsinore won and advanced to the California League Championship series. Congrats Storm!

A bunch of guys came through with good games, but there wasn’t a single guy who carried the team. A team effort... Huh, what a novel concept. One more series fellas! Keep it going.

You want to see your best guys come through in big games. Will Venable did just about all he could to help the Fort Wayne Wizards win their 3-game playoff series. Will hit .583 with 2 doubles for the three game set…

Padres Report - September 7th

Padres’ Report – September 7, 2006

The Mets cut down the Dodgers 7-0 and Philly handled the Fish 14-8…

The Padres are now one-half game behind the Dodgers in the West and hold a 2.5 game advantage over Philly in the Wild Card (the Marlins and Giants are 3.5 games back)…

With game 1 of the 4-game set in the books (Way to go Mets!), the two teams send out the following starters in the final three games:

Hong-Chih Kuo (5.34, 0-4) vs. John Maine (3.44, 5-3)
Greg Maddux (4.36, 12-12) vs. Orlando Hernandez (5.15, 9-10)
Mark Hendrickson (4.41 5-15) vs. Steve Trachsel (5.02, 14-6)

If I’m a betting man (and I’m not) I’d wager that the Mets would win games 2 & 4 and the Dodgers would win behind Mad Dog in game 3.

While the Dodgers (30-39 on the road) sweat it out in New York, the Padres get another chance to exact some revenge on the Giants (Giants lead the series 6-10). The Padres and Giants are sending out the following starters:

Jake Peavy (4.32, 8-13) vs. Matt Cain (4.11, 11-9)
David Wells (4.58, 2-3) vs. Jason Schmidt (3.39, 11-8)
Woody Williams (3.91, 7-5) vs. Brad Hennessey (3.72, 5-4)

Based on ERAs and win-loss records (not to mention head-to-head record) the Giants appear to have a distinct advantage. But in Peavy’s last eight starts he has allowed 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 0, 5, and 1 earned run and he pitched 7+ innings in 6 of those 8 games… And David Wells, the noted big game pitcher, like Peavy, has been pitching well of late (2, 2, and 1 ER in last 3 starts). Pitching in Sunday night’s ESPN game, Woody has the best ERA of the three Padres starters but is the least likely to strike fear into the hearts of opposing batters.

I do think the Padres win the series, but I won’t predict which games like I did in the Mets-Dodgers series… If we do win the series and if the Dodgers do lose 2 out of the remaining 3 the Padres will be division leaders on Monday morning.

On to the report…

Hitters:

Hi-A – Nick Hundley --- 2-4; HR (1), R, RBI, SO
Hi-A – Tim Brown --- 2-4; 2B (2), R
Lo-A – Mike Sansoe --- 3-5; R, 2 SO
Lo-A – Will Venable --- 3-5; 2B (1), R
Lo-A – David Freese --- 2-4; 2 2B (2), R, 2 RBI, BB

Pitchers:

Hi-A – Manny Ayala --- 6.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
Lo-A – Wade Leblanc --- 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 SO, 0 HR
Lo-A – John Madden --- 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

Unfortunately, Lake Elsinore couldn’t wrap up their playoff series Thursday night. Manny Alaya pitched a heck of a game and Hundley and Brown did their best, but the rest of the offense came up short. Tomorrow will be the game 3 finale.

Starting pitcher Wade Leblanc, and Sansoe, Venable, and Freese said, “Not on our watch.” The 2-3-4 hitters led Fort Wayne to a 4-0 win over West Michigan (Detroit) going a combined 8-for-14 and evening the series 1-1. As with Lake Elsinore, the finale is tomorrow.

Padres Report - September 6th

Padres’ Minor League Report – September 6, 2006

O.K., I’m excited and pissed… The Padres won – nea, swept the visiting Rockies, which is obviously a BIG positive… But my blogger tools aren’t working properly. I wrote this big piece today about Rob Neyer’s Beane Count and how the NL West shakes down, but Blogger won’t let me add a table. OK, turn the spreadsheet into an image and post that, except Blogger is not letting me do that tonight. And the article just isn’t the same without the spreadsheet… Ugh!

Enough about me…

Clay throws 7 innings of shutout ball…
Cla throws 1.2 (more) innings of shutout ball…
&
Newly promoted Paul McAnulty hits a game-winning, walk-off, 2-run, 1st career MLB home run.

On September 3rd, I wrote, “Lucky for [the Rockies] they don’t have to face Peavy or Wells.” No worries, Young, Williams, and Hensley took care of business… So the Padres get a day off on Thursday then San Francisco gets to face Peavy, Wells, and Young.

Wednesday I was watching (well more listening to while I worked on other stuff) the Reds-Giants game. Steve Phillips was in the booth and when asked about the Wild Card, he said he liked the Giants’ experience and thought they would overtake us. I’m pretty confident the Padres will take care of business and get another series win. I hope someone on the Padres got that to post as bulletin-board fodder…

Congrats to Cal Meredith for setting the new Padres’ record for consecutive scoreless innings.

The Dodgers are sending Brad Penny to the mound on Thursday to face Tom Glavine… Go Mets!

On to the report (the Hi-A & Lo-A participants are from their playoffs, SS Eugene played it’s final game of the season today)…

Hitters:

Hi-A – Sean Kazmir --- 0-3; 2 RBI, SO
Hi-A – Matt Hagen --- 2-5; 2 2B (2), 2 R, RBI, SO
Hi-A – Skip Adams --- 3-3; 2B (1), R, BB
Lo-A – Mike Baxter --- 2-3; HR (1), R, RBI, BB, SO
Lo-A – Will Venable --- 2-4; R
SS – Cedric Hunter --- 0-2
SS – Michael Cambell --- 2-4; 2 HR (5), 2 R, 3 RBI, SO

Pitchers:

Lo-A – Joakim Soria --- 2.O IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR
SS – Jackson Quezada --- 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

None of the Game 1 heroes from the Lake Elsinore game are legitimate prospects, but these are the playoffs, baby! Big win guys!

How unfair that Cedric only gets 2 AB has to suffer the indignity of not reaching base in the final game of his 1st professional season; a season defined by Cedric reaching base…

No, not THAT Michael Campbell... Way to go out in style!

Who is Jackson Quezada?

Padres Report - September 5th

Padres’ Minor League Report – September 5, 2006

While this is the September 5th Padres Report, most of you won’t read it until September 6th. With that in mind:

Happy Birthday to Austin!
Happy Birthday to Austin!
Happy Birthday dear Austin…
Happy Birthday to Austin!

My eldest son, Austin, turns 5 on the 6th. I love you Austin!

***

Big win for the Padres! Last night I pointed out that prior to this series, when the Padres had won the opening game of a series, they also won the series (4-for-4). Last night they won the opening game a 5th time and tonight they clinched the series-win (make it 5-for-5).

Two nights ago I said, “Time to treat [the Rockies] rudely.” – If you look at the best sports figures in their respective sports, you’ll notice that each of them obviously has or had talent, but they also possessed a killer instinct. When the other team was down, they put their proverbial foot on the opposing team’s throat. – Other than when the Padres have played the Dodgers, I’ve yet to see that killer instinct here in San Diego. Here’s a chance to display it. Let’s keep up the rude treatment of the Rockies and get the sweep.

On Tuesday’s Channel 4 telecast, Matt Vasgersian and Tony Gwynn talked about how the NL Central helped us Tuesday night when the Brewers shut out the Dodgers and the Reds shut out the Giants. Maybe just as importantly (but unmentioned on Tuesday’s telecast) our division-mates, the Diamondbacks, shut out the Marlins. The Padres now trail the Dodgers by only one game in the NL West and have a 2-game advantage over the Phillies in the NL Wild Card race.

***

Last night, coincidentally, I wrote, “With George Kottaras a member of the Red Sox organization (at least unofficially)…” while talking about Nick Hundley. Now, it’s official.

Hitters:

…nothing worth mentioning…

Pitchers:

SS – Aaron Breit --- 4.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
SS – Pablo Menchaca --- 3.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

Aaron Breit only had a so-so night (at best), but keep in mind, all the other Padres minor league either were finished for the season or had a night off before the playoffs start. Breit still finished with 3.08 ERA in 64.1 IP with 60 hits allowed a 67 SO with only 22 BB. And, he only allowed 2 HR in his debut to professional baseball.

The Eugene Emeralds conclude their season tomorrow.

Padres Playoff-bound?

MLB.com has an article posted commenting on how teams in first place (or leading the Wild Card) on Labor Day usually make the playoffs.

Since baseball expanded the playoffs in 1995, 73 of 92 leaders (67 first-place clubs and 25 other teams either in sole possession or tied for first in the Wild Card standings) went on to reach the playoffs.

That's a 79.3-percent success rate for the teams on top when the fireworks subsided on Labor Day. Conversely, only 20.7 percent of the leaders, or 18 teams, missed the playoffs after leading on Labor Day.

Sounds good to me!

Padres Report - September 4th

Padres’ Minor League Report – September 4, 2006

Happy Labor Day to you all!

I’ve mentioned before that I’m a huge fan of College Football in general and the University of Miami Hurricanes in particular. In that sport I follow the recruiting quite closely; similarly to how I follow minor league baseball (although not quite as closely). I’ve often wondered why I have the level of fascination with the minor leagues and recruiting that I do… If asked, I always said, “I like knowing ‘What’s next.’”

While I think that is part of it, I don’t think that’s the whole story. It occurred to me tonight, that minor leaguers (and recruits) are perfect. They’ve never lost a game or struck out with the bases loaded for the Padres or threw a game-ending interception for the ‘Canes. Now obviously they aren’t truly perfect, but their ‘ups and downs’ haven’t affected MY teams.

I think that explains it. It’s something I watch and root for without getting emotionally involved.

***

Last night I wrote:

In the second half we’ve won the first game of a series four times. We’ve won each of those four series. Overall, we won the first game of a series 21 times. In those 21 series we won 17 of those series, lost 2 series, and tied two series. Let’s get this series off to a good start and get a win Monday night.

...Make that five time we've won the series opener. Tonight’s win was HUGE!

I think (and hope) Barfield is taking exception to the fact that Russell Branyan’s acquisition is eating into his at-bats… In the last 7 days, Barfield has gone 6-16 (.375) with 3 XBH (2 doubles & Monday’s walk-off HR) with 2 BB and 0 SO… That, or Branyan’s acquisition is allowing Bochy to sit against pitchers who might be harder for Barfield to hit.

Now let’s get greedy and get the series win in game 2!

Hitters:

Hi-A – Nick Hundley --- 2-3; 2B (13), HR (3), 2 R, 2 RBI
Lo-A – Will Venable --- 2-5; R, SO
Lo-A – David Freese --- 1-3; 2B (13), 2 RBI
Lo-A – Craig Cooper --- 1-3; 2B (1), R, RBI, BB
SS – Cedric Hunter --- 2-4; SO

Pitchers:

AAA – Tim Stauffer --- 3.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO
SS – Brooks Dunn --- 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO

Commentary:

With George Kottaras a member of the Red Sox organization (at least unofficially) Nick Hundley is the heir-apparent to the big-league catching job. The 23yr old 2005 draftee (2nd round), has combined (Nick started the season in Lo-A and was promoted to Hi-A mid-season) for a .273/.354/.430 (going into tonight) line with 32 doubles and 11 home runs with 45 walks and 89 strikeouts. Reportedly Nick is also superior to Kottaras as a receiver (which is one of the reasons the Padres were willing to deal Kottaras).

In just 71 games (remember he was drafted in early June and joined the Eugene Emeralds who began their season around June 20th) David Freese has 21 doubles, 3 triples, and 13 home runs. That 36 XBH; out of 82 hits for a 43.9% XBH-rate.

Tim Stauffer is either so pissed at being in AAA he can’t see straight, or we caught lightning in a bottle on August 21st, when he spun that 2 run, 6 inning gem. For some reason I’m thinking the latter is more likely…

In his last 4 starts (25 IP), Brooks Dunn has allowed one earned run. In his last 10 games (49.1 IP), Dunn has allowed 7 earned runs (1.28 ERA).

Padres Report - September 3rd

Padres’ Minor League Report – September 3, 2006

If you told me before the game that Cinci starting pitcher Eric Milton held us to a single run in six innings, I would not have been surprised. Then, if you told me that Wells held Cinci to a single run in six innings, I would have predicted a victory. Well we outlasted their left-handed starter, Wells kept us in it, and we won. Nice.

Tomorrow we’ll welcome Colorado back to Petco Park, and this year, they’ve felt too welcome in our house. Time to treat them rudely. Luckily for us, the Rockies only have one left-handed started, Jeff Francis, scheduled against us. Lucky for them they don’t have to face Peavy or Wells.

Colorado is 10-6 against us on the season so far…

In the second half we’ve won the first game of a series four times. We’ve won each of those four series. Overall, we won the first game of a series 21 times. In those 21 series we won 17 of those series, lost 2 series, and tied two series. Let’s get this series off to a good start and get a win Monday night.

On to the report...

Hitters:

AAA – Ben Johnson --- 2-5; 2B (11), 2 RBI, 2 SO
AAA – Jon Knott --- 1-4; HR (32), R, 2 RBI, BB, SO
Hi-A – Sean Kazmir --- 1-7; HR (13), R, 4 RBI, 2 SO
Hi-A – Chase Headley --- 2-6; 2B (33), 2 R, RBI, BB, 2 SO
Hi-A – Tim Brown --- 1-2; 2B (37), 2 R, 3 RBI, BB, SO
Lo-A – Seth Johnston --- 4-5; 2B (33), 2 R
Lo-A – Daryl Jones --- 3-5; 2B (22), R, 2 RBI, 2 SO
SS – Jeremy Hunt --- 2-4; 2 HR (2), 2 R, 3 RBI

Pitchers:

AA – Jose Oyervidez --- 5.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 SO, 1 HR
Lo-A – Nathenial Culp --- 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

Jeremy Hunt isn’t a top prospect… In fact at best he’s a lower level prospect with a chance to be a bench guy. He’s 22 now and will turn 23 in December. A 2006 draftee, Hunter started his professional career in Rookie-ball with the AZL Padres and hit .323/.423/.500 with 8 2B, 3 3B, and 5 HR to go with a 2B/37 BB/SO ratio.

In the 8th inning in a game against playoff race competitor, Hi-A Lake Elsinore 1B Tim Brown walked and later scored to tie the game. Then in the 11th, Brown came up to bat with the sacks full. He hit a bases-clearing double. After the bases reloaded, Sean Kazmir hit a grand slam. If you’re scoring at home (get a life!) that is 7 runs in the deciding 11th inning. Storm win.

Padres Report - September 2nd

Padres’ Minor League Report – September 2, 2006

Peavy’s line:

9.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 14 SO, 1 HR (114 pitches)

That was a very economical, dominant performance. Now we need David Wells to come through for us and finish off this series.

Uh oh, left-handers are hitting .194/.223/.336 against Eric Milton (Cinci’s Sunday starter). Right-handers hit Milton to tune of .287/.347/.511…

That’s scary since our lineup is so dependant on left-handed hitters.

Against LHP:

Alexander: .143/.143/.143 in 7 AB
Bard: .358/.417/.547 in 53 AB
Barfield: .327/.377/.554 in 101 AB
Bellhorn: .224/.297/.418 in 63 AB
Blum: .136/.208/.136 in 22 AB
Bowen: .125/.286/.125 in 16 AB
Branyon: .185/.267/.519 in 27 AB
Cameron: .250/.358/.440 in 100 AB
Giles: .207/.315/.300 in 140 AB
Gonzales: .291/.320/.444 in 117 AB
Piazza: .349/.398/.593 in 86 AB
Roberts: .300/.315/.400 in 50 AB
Sledge: .378/.477/.698 in 90 AB (w/ AAA Portland)
Walker: .204/.330/.301 in 93 AB

Yikes!!! I wonder if Sledge gets a start tomorrow? If so will Giles get the bench (as the numbers say he should) or will Roberts get the typical LHP pine? Likewise, Bochy usually gives Piazza the day off on day games following a night games (virtually every Sunday), it would be nice to have Piazza’s bat in the lineup. He’s our only lefty-killer (though his typical back-up, Bard, is solid against LHP as well). It would be really nice if we could find a way to get Piazza, and Bard in the lineup.

Desired Sunday lineup:

C – Piazza
1B – Gonzales
2B – Barfield
3B - Walker
SS - Blum
LF – Roberts
CF - Cameron
RF – Sledge

(Not listed in batting order…)

I’m looking forward to seeing what Wells can give us. We may need a lot…

On to the report:

Hitters:

AAA – Jon Knott --- 1-3; HR (31), R, RBI
AAA – Jack Cust --- 1-3; HR (30), R, RBI, 2 SO
AA – Luis Cruz --- 3-4; R
Lo-A – Matt Antonelli --- 1-4; 2B, 2 SO
Lo-A – Will Venable --- 2-4; 2B (14), HR (), R, 2 RBI, SO
Lo-A – David Freese --- 0-4; 3 SO
SS – Cedric Hunter --- 2-4

Pitchers:

AAA – Jared Wells --- 5.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
AA – Sean Thompson --- 5 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 4 SO, 3 HR
Lo-A – Wade Leblanc --- 5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR – odd line
SS – Orlando Lara --- 3.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1 HR

Commentary:

I failed to mention it yesterday, but Matt Antonelli is now playing 2B for the Fort Wayne Wizards. Fellow 2006 draftee, David Freese, has been manning the hot corner for the Wizards.

It didn’t take long for Cedric to get on base…

Jared Well’s prospect status continues to slide. At this point it isn’t a question of whether he’ll be ready for the Majors next season, but whether he’ll be back in Portland or demoted back to AA.

Wade Leblanc pitched poorly and picked up the win… It happens…

Padres Report - September 1st

Padres’ Minor League Report – September 1, 2006

The Padres have annoying habit of losing the first game of a series. Since the All Star break, the Padres have lost game 1 of a series 11 of 15 times. The good news is, in non-first games, they’re 16-15 (well, I don’t know if that’s “good news” but it beats a losing record)… The Padres have Peavy and Wells starting the last two games of the series (against Lohse and Milton respectively). They need to come back and win this series.

By the way, MLB.com has a nice feature-piece on Padres’ minor league 3B, Chase Headley.

Hitters:

AAA - Ben Johnson --- 2-4; R, SO
AAA – Jon Knott --- 2-4; HR (30), 2 R, RBI, SO
AAA – Jack Cust --- 2-3; 2B (23), 2 RBI, BB
AAA – George Kottaras --- 0-4; SO
Hi-A – Chase Headley --- 2-3; R, BB, SO
Lo-A – Will Venable --- 2-4; RBI
Lo-A – David Freese --- 2-4
SS – Cedric Hunter --- 0-1; SO

Pitchers:

Hi-A – Manny Ayala --- 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

George Kottaras played today for the AAA Portland Beavers. That probably does not mean he will remain a Padre prospect…

I think one of the bigger decisions facing Grady Fuson and the player development team this off-season, is what to do with Cedric Hunter. Cedric has the chance to force Grady’s hand. After helping (leading?) the AZL Padres to a league championship, Cedric Hunter (among others) was promoted to the Short-Season Eugene Emeralds. Pinch-hitting in the ninth, Cedric struck out in his first AB in the collegiate-dominated league. If Cedric has a strong showing in the Midwest League the Padres will probably give him an opportunity to begin next season in full-season Lo-A ball in Fort Wayne. Otherwise, the Padres could leave him in extended Spring Training and let him start 2007 with the Short Season Eugene club in mid-June. Cedric has 5 more opportunities to make an impression.

Root for Kottaras the Red Sox

I read an interview of John Schuerholz once. He was being interview by a writer with AthleticsNation.com (I looked for the interview online, but couldn’t find it). In the interview, Schuerholz was asked about “winning” trades; about getting more out of the player you acquired than the other team got out the player you gave up. His response was shocking and astute. Schuerholz indicated he ALWAYS rooted for the player he traded away to do exceedingly well because it cause other teams to have more interest in your farm system and more willing to be your trading partner.

Food for thought as we all perform our own armchair-GM analysis…