Padres Report - September 14th

Padres Report – September 14, 2006

Tuesday: 6-7 vs. 5-10
Wednesday: 3-8 vs. 1-4
Thursday: 4-5 vs. 3-11

What’s that? Glad you asked, for the series the Padre hitters walked 13 times while striking out 20, the Reds 9 walks and 25 strikeouts. While on a game-to-game basis the higher walk or strikeout total won’t ensure victory or defeat, over a series and more importantly, a season, walking more puts more stress on the opponent’s bullpen and striking out less puts more stress on the opponent’s defense.

As we come down the final stretch of the playoff run the Padre hitters need to keep working the count, taking their walks, trying not to strike out all while the Padre pitchers try to prevent free passes and rack up a few strikeouts.

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For kicks and giggles, I wanted to look at the complete list of series and whether or not the Padres “won” the series. The thinking behind the list is, if the Padres “win out” (not win every game, but win every series) they will reach the playoffs; heck, they’ll win the division.

Completed post-All Star game series (wins and losses in parenthesis):

Atlanta 0-3 (L)
Philadelphia 2-1 (W)
@ San Francisco 1-3 (L)
@ Los Angeles 3-0 (W)
@ Colorado 1-3 (L)
Houston 1-2 (L)
Washington 2-1 (W)
@ New York 0-3 (L)
@ Houston 2-1 (W)
San Francisco 0-4 (L)
Arizona 2-1 (W)
Los Angeles 3-0 (W)
@ Colorado 1-2 (L)
@ Arizona 2-1 (W)
Cincinnati 2-1 (W)
Colorado 3-0 (W)
@ San Francisco 1-2 (L)
@ Cincinnati 2-1 (W)

Upcoming series:

@ Los Angeles (4 games)
Arizona (3 games)
Pittsburgh (3 games)
@ St. Louis (3 games)
@ Arizona (4 games)

Right now the Padres have a .524 winning “percentage” which works out to 84.88 (ok, 85) wins… To get to exactly 85 wins, the Padres would win 9 of the 17 remaining games.

The Dodgers face the Padres, Pirates, and Diamondbacks at home and end with Colorado and San Francisco on the road. The Dodgers are currently 77-69.

Philadelphia hits the road for Houston and comes home for Chicago, Florida, and a 1-game makeup with Houston, then ends their season in Washington and Florida. Philly is currently 74-72.

San Francisco heads to St. Louis then Colorado and lastly to Milwaukee for four games before finishing their season at home with Arizona and Los Angeles. San Francisco is currently 74-72.

Florida goes to Atlanta, New York, and Philadelphia then comes home for Cincinnati and Philadelphia. The Marlins’ record stands at 73-73.

I think the Padre will get to (at least) 85 wins. Let’s assume they split with L.A. (2), win two out of three against the D’backs (4), two out of three against Pittsburgh (6), one out of three against the Cards (7), and split the final four with Arizona (9). That’s nine more wins for eighty-five total. Philly and San Francisco each would need to find 11 wins (out of 16) to match that, and Florida would need to win 12 of their final 16 to equal 85 wins… Keep in mind that the Phillies and Marlins still need to face each other 6 more times this season. If they split those six, the Marlins could only afford to lose one more non-Philly game this season while the Phillies could only lose 2 other games to get to 85. In San Francisco’s favor, the two teams above them (yes, the Padres and Dodgers) face each other for four and Dodgers still have to go to SF to visit, but I still think it’s too little, too late.

Now let’s look again at the remaining series for the Padres…

@ Los Angeles (4 games)
Arizona (3 games)
Pittsburgh (3 games)
@ St. Louis (3 games)
@ Arizona (4 games)

The Padres have won 10 of the 18 series since the All Star break… I think we’ll win the majority of the remaining series as well.

CBS.Sportsline.com’s Scott Miller was on Mighty XX Thursday evening and predicted that both San Diego and Los Angles would reach the postseason. I agree. As I look at the remaining schedules, there’s just too much ground to make up for both the Phillies and Marlins especially considering they had six games head-to-head and in his words, ‘Frisco “sucks.” He said their bullpen is awful.

I think it will be a New York-St. Louis-Los Angles-San Diego playoff. Who’d a thunk it?

Now, one last thing... Back to the "win out" comment. If the Padres "win out" (and let's assume they don't sweep a single series) they would win: 3, 2, 2, 2, and 3 games (12 out of 17 games for a total of 88 wins). Not bad...

Now, bring on the Dodgers!