Padres Report - September 30th

Padres Report - September 30, 2006

The Padres clinched a playoff berth on Saturday. On Sunday they have the chance to wrap up the NL West for the 2nd consecutive year and secure home-field advantage for the first round in the playoffs.

You know that already…

You and everybody else also already knows that Jake Peavy will start Game 1 on Tuesday (whether it’s in New York against the Mets or in San Diego against the Cardinals or Astros) and everybody also knows Chris Young will pitch Game 2. Now what none of us know, is whether the Padres will go with a 4-man rotation or a 3-man rotation and who will be the odd man (or men) out…

Let us look at the other three San Diego starters (alphabetically):

Clay Hensley

Season statistics:

11-11, 3.71 ERA, 187.0 IP, 174 H, 82 R, 77 ER, 15 HR, 76 BB, 122 SO, 5.87 K/9, 2.19 G/F, .259 BAA, 1.34 WHIP

We knew Clay was an extreme ground-ball pitcher… And with the Padres’ defense, that could be a huge advantage against lineups like the Mets throw out there or any lineup with a guy named Pujols in it… However, Clay does not have the experience that Wells or Williams have.

Other relevant numbers:

Since the All Star break:
6-5, 2.47 ERA, 83.2 IP, 74 H, 25 R, 23 ER, 4 HR, 36 BB, 66 SO, 7.10 K/9, 1.31 WHIP

And… In those five post-All Star Game losses, Clay allowed 2, 4, 1 (0 earned), 4, and 2 runs. So even when Clay loses, he usually pitches well.

David Wells

Season statistics:

3-5, 4.42 ERA, 75.1 IP, 97 H, 41 R, 37 ER, 11 HR, 12 BB, 38 SO, 4.54 K/9, 1.44 G/F, .338 BAA, 1.45 WHIP

David Wells has not pitched well this season. Despite Saturday’s win, I don’t see how anyone could conclude that he was a successful pitcher this season. Robinson Cano, the Yankees second baseman, is having a great year. He’s hitting .341/.364/.523. Cano is a very good hitter. Opposing hitters are batting .338/.363/.517 (very Cano-like numbers) off David Wells. Wow! Yet, David Wells has that “big game cachet” that players and media-types like to talk about…

Now even though David cost an arm and a leg, his presence may have been what the Padres needed (since his arrival the Padres have gone 19-9). Furthermore, while he has been ineffective, don’t forget the Glenn Hoffman-waving Boomer home in Wells’ first game as a Padre. It didn’t come up since then, but Wells did sprain his ankle. And it was only since Wells’ gout-induced game off that he said he felt 100% healthy from his bum ankle.

So if we only look at Wells first start and first healthy start since then, we’ve got:

Other relevant numbers:

Statistics from Wells' first and last games as a Padre:
1-0, 0.75 ERA, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, O HR, 2 BB, 5 SO…

David likely won’t continue to post 0.75 ERA, but then maybe there is something to that “big game cachet,” Robinson Cano or not…

Woody Williams

Season statistics:

11-5, 3.57 ERA, 138.2 IP, 146 H, 64 R, 55 ER, 19 HR, 35 BB, 72 SO, 4.67 K/9, 0.86 G/F, .268 BAA, 1.31 WHIP

Williams has been solid all season. And Sunday he’ll face Diamondbacks’ ace, Brandon Webb with a chance to clinch Padres’ second consecutive NL West title (and possibly derail Webb’s Cy Young chances). On September 1st, the Padres were four games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. While many players have come up big for San Diego in the final month, none have delivered as consistently as Woody has. In September Woody has gone 4-0 (with one “no decision” in a game the Padres did win).

Other relevant numbers:

September statistics:
4-0, 2.51 ERA, 28.2 IP, 28 H, 13 R, 8 ER, 5 HR, 9 BB, 12 SO…

Conclusion:

I don’t think the Padres will go with a 3-man rotation. I don’t remember the statistics, but last year when the Padres were in the playoffs, I heard or saw what Peavy’s statistics were when he’s pitching on 3 days rest. They weren’t pretty. When a team has the kind of depth the Padres have, it makes sense to take advantage of it. Now if the Padres sweep in the Division series, I think they’d skip the Game 4 starter and go back to Peavy in Game 1 of the NLCS (he’d likely have a day off while the other series wrapped up).

I think three why Hensley will be in the bullpen for the playoffs. One, Clay’s a rookie; and he’s not Justin Verlander or Francisco Liriano. He’s not carrying the ballclub. As such, the Padres won’t feel like they’re dependant on him to win a series. Two, Clay was “nails” last year out of the bullpen. If the Padres get into a game where the opposition cuffs around the Padres’ starting pitcher, the Padres would probably feel most comfortable handing the ball off to sinkerball pitcher, Clay Hensley. Third, while the Padres may never officially acknowledge it, they may feel pressure to allow their pricey trade acquisition, Wells, “earn it” in the post-season.

***

One last thing… I’ve talked (in Ducksnorts.com’s IGD’s, to friends on the phone and in person, etc.) about different playoff scenarios either as the Wild Card or as the NL West champion… Going “Ghost Busters” here and clearing my mind, I refuse to think of the “Marshmallow Man” and offer an “I hope the Padres face…” prediction/desired opponent. There are reasons to fear Houston, St. Louis, and New York. Under the headline, “Be Careful What You Wish For,” I don’t wish for anything. If the Padres keep winning, they’ll win the World Series. It’s as simple as that.

Go Pads!