Padres Report - September 26th

Padres Report – September 26, 2006

The Padres’ .540 winning percentage equates to 87.6 wins… We obviously cannot win .6 games and with 5 games remaining, if I were betting man, I would predict two or three wins the rest of the way… Back to my September 21st comment, “I think 88 games will definitely win the division and 87 will probably win it.”

It’s time to start thinking about playoff match ups.

The Mets have clinched the East and let’s assume the Padres win the West. There are two potential NL Central winners: St. Louis (who holds a 1.5-game advantage) and Houston. And there are two potential Wild Card opponents: Los Angeles (who owns a 1-game advantage) and Philadelphia.

Let’s get greedy for a second (I ran out for groceries after the game and heard the Coach and Scanlan talking about this on the post-game show on Mighty XX, so I can’t get all the credit):

If the Cardinals and Astros finish within a half-game of each other, the Giants will have to travel to St. Louis for a make-up game on Monday, October 2nd. Then, if the game results in such a way to tie-up Houston and St. Louis, the Astros would play St. Louis on Tuesday to determine the NL Central champions… Wow… If all that happens (and at this point it’s not far-fetched) St. Louis could limp into the playoffs more than a little worn down…

Likewise, if the Phillies and Dodgers end up tied the Phillies would travel to Los Angeles to determine the Wild Card winner.

Now who plays who?

Glad you asked… The Mets have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With the best record in the National League, they would play the Wild Card team unless the Wild Card team hails from New York’s division. Thus, if Los Angeles wins the Wild Card, Los Angeles would travel to New York to face the Mets. If Philly wins the Wild Card, the Mets would face the division-winner with worst record (either St. Louis or Houston). San Diego (again, assuming they hold onto their division lead) will host either Philadelphia or Central division champs.

Whew…

A few thoughts on tonight’s win…

First, I thought the umpiring was horrific. There were bad ball/strike calls, the home plate umpire also was wrong on the Terrmel Sledge slide at home call… It was pathetic. And the Padres still won!

Second, our ‘pen is nails. Those guys are money. In 1996 the New York Yankees were facing the defending World Series Champion Braves in the World Series… No one gave New York a chance. Atlanta won it the previous year and had an even better season that year… The Yankees, behind some solid defense, decent starting pitching, patient hitting, and a killer relief corps beat the Braves.

Third, our offense is playing with a lot of confidence. Facing Chris Carpenter and trailing 2-5 in the seventh, it would be real easy for the Padres to mentally shut it down and say, “We’ll get ‘em tomorrow.” One two-run double by Josh Bard and another two-run double by Mike Cameron later and the Padres are up 6-5. I don’t expect the Padres to finish off a sweep on Wednesday nor do I expect the Padres to sweep the D’Backs to finish the season… But neither (or both) would surprise me.

The Padres, circa-2006, do not have as much offense as New York did that year, yet I can’t help but think about that New York team as I watch our Padres.