Padres Report - September 24th

Padres Report - September 24, 2006

I wasn’t planning on going AWOL while Hoffy made history, but my cable-modem died on me Friday afternoon. The good folks at Cox communication just got me back up running again.

I’m not going to get into the Hoffy-discussion. He’s amazing. He’s a Hall of Famer – easy. We’re lucky to have him.

***

I’m re-watching Sunday’s game and Steve Quis mentioned early in the game that Clay Hensley is not a strikeout pitcher.

Um, well, let’s look at some numbers…

2002 (Salem-Keizer - NWL): 82 IP, 84 SO (9.22 K/9 IP)
2003 (Hagerstown – SAL): 68 IP, 74 SO (9.79/9)
2003 (San Jose – Cal): 29 IP, 25 SO (7.76/9)
2003 (Lake Elsinore – Cal): 44 IP, 40 SO (8.18/9)
2004 (Mobile – SL): 159 IP, 125 SO (7.08/9)
2005 (Portland – PCL): 90 IP, 71 SO (7.1/9)
2005 (San Diego – MLB): 48 IP, 28 SO (5.25/9)
2006 (San Diego – MLB): 181 IP, 118 SO (5.87/9)

In every level except the majors, Clay has had a K/9 rate above 7.0… Now Clay isn’t ever going to challenge Jake Peavy for the team strikeout lead, but I do expect Clay to increase his strikeout rate next year.

Let’s look at some more numbers

July: 29.2 IP, 27 SO
August: 29.2 IP, 21 SO
September: 30.1 IP, 26 SO

In these last three combined months, Clay has compiled a 7.43 K/9 rate. That 7.43 rate is near what he compiled as a minor leaguer (7.97/9).

Earlier this season I theorized that the Padres would likely trade Clay this off-season. I’m beginning to hope that doesn’t happen. Clay, 27 years old, is heading into his prime. I think Clay can be a rotation-mainstay for years to come.

I expect next year’s rotation to look like:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. free agent
4. Clay Hensley
5. Woody Williams/Chan Ho Park

And I don’t expect that free agent to be Barry Zito (nor do I want it to be).

By the way, if you want to read a detailed account of the specifics involving free agency, check out Jamey Newberg's column over at MLB.com.

***

Now, let's go out and get game 1 against St. Louis!