Padres Report - August 15th

Padres’ Minor League Report – August 15, 2006

Buckle up, I wrote a lot tonight…

Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus and a PRD favorite, posted his NL West Division Roundup today. Kevin and I have talked on numerous occasions so I’m very familiar with his opinion of the Padres’ organization. However, Kevin shocked me with this quote, “Wow, it's almost depressing to look too closely at the Padres system--it's really, really bad.”

In the 2006 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, BA rated our minor league organization 28th (Kevin compiled the Padres’ Top 30 for the 2006 book when he was with BA so he’s quite familiar with the system).

While the Padres system does not deserve to be talked about among the upper echelon of minor league systems, it is improving. Heck, I’d say that after the 2006 draft (which I think was a very good one) they are still in the bottom third. The difference is, apparently unlike Kevin; I think the Padres have moved into the low-20s (21, 22, 23… in that range).

The reason I was shocked with the quote is because I think Kevin has it completely backwards. If you look quickly at the organization you notice a few things:

1. It’s made up of a quite a few older players
2. There ain’t much at the top (other than Kottaras and Carrillo I’m not sure there’s any MLB regulars in AAA & AA – fittingly, Kevin made that comment in his paragraph about the prospect-devoid AA Mobile team)
3. The team’s minor league reputation has to deal with the recent memory of Matt Bush as the #1 pick in 2004 and Tim Stauffer showing up injured when he was drafted 4th overall in 2003 (no fault of the Padres on that one)

However, if you dig deeper (which is what Kevin said was “depressing”) you’ll notice a bunch of interesting guys who are legit prospects (if a ways away) and some others who have to be called “sleepers” or “emerging prospects:”

• Aaron Breit – JUCO 20 yr. old pitcher w/ low-mid 90’s FB in 1st pro season
• Chad Huffman – Col. OF drafted in 2006, some power, good stats, 21 yrs. old
• Craig Cooper - Short-Season 1B having solid year; a 2006 draftee
• David Freese - Lo-A 3B who crushed Short-Season ball; another 2006 draftee
• Kyle Blanks – 6’7” 270 lbs. freak-athlete in Lo-A w/ more potential than production
• Kyler Burke – High School OF drafted in ’06, power, struggling, but high upside
• Michael Epping – Col. ’06 drafted CF who walks & steals some in Short-Season
• Nic Crosta - Hi-A OF who killed Lo-A, 23 yrs. old, 1st year of pro ball
• Orlando Lara - 21 year old Mexican prospect with 46 SO in 38.1 IP
• Rayner Contreras – 19 yr. old Dominican batting .315/.408/.468 in Rookie-ball

(…And that doesn’t include the two obvious prospects: Matt Antonelli and Cedric Hunter or a few mid-level pitchers who could top out as 4th or 5th starters.)

Again, I’m not going to confuse the Padres’ system with those of the Dodgers or Diamondbacks (two of the top 5 in all of baseball) but let’s not pretend the system hasn’t made serious strides.

On to tonight’s report:

Hitters:

AAA – George Kottaras --- 0-3; 2 R, BB
AAA – Tremel Sledge --- 1-1; HR (17), R, 3 RBI
Hi-A – Chase Headley --- 0-2; 2 BB
Lo-A – Will Venable --- 2-4; R, RBI
SS – Chad Huffman --- 2-3; 2B (13), RBI, BB
R – Cedric Hunter --- 1-4; RBI, BB, SO
R – Rayner Contreras --- 3-5; R, 2 SO

Pitchers:

AA – Matt Ekstrom --- 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
Hi-A – Josh Geer --- 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
SS – Aaron Breit --- 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

George is showing that he’s probably not ready for MLB action (obviously not now, but probably not for 2007 either). He is still getting on base at a good clip.

Chase has been batting 5th quite a bit lately after batting 2nd and 3rd earlier in the season. He was back in the 2-hole tonight and got on base via the walk twice.

PRD fave Cedric Hunter had a rather ordinary night, but he could have had an even a worse night and he would have gotten love here tonight. The reason is Baseball America mentioned him in their Prospect Hot Sheet.

Since signing as a third-round pick, all Hunter has done is hit. And hit, and hit and hit. Hunter went 9-for-16 on the week and is hitting .377/.469/.465, with a 17-game hitting streak. He has no homers, but a remarkable 29-16 strikeout-walk ratio in 159 at-bats.

…Cedric did lose a few points off his sublime numbers by getting only 1 hit tonight and ONLY getting on base two times in five attempts. Oh… and those strikeouts to walks? That’s now 30 BB to 17 SO (one of each tonight). By the way, he’s only 18… Wow!

Rayner Contreras continues to impress… Ignoring the Dominican creed, “You can’t walk off the island,” the 19-year-old Contreras has 17 BB to go with 22 SO. Rayner played briefly at Lo-A Fort Wayne and struggled mightily before raking in the Rookie-level Arizona league.

Another PRD fave, Aaron Breit, had a solid outing. I always wonder about unearned runs, but he didn’t allow any home runs, only walked one, and didn’t give up a lot hits… So I’m pleased. Aaron now has 54 SO in 44.2 IP (compared to 19 BB). He has allowed 41 H but only 2 HR. I haven’t decided how deep I’ll go when I rank the Padres’ minor leaguers this off-season, but if I go 20 deep Aaron will probably be there. I really like him.