Tuesday, October 10, 2006

PRD's Top 25 Padres Minor League Players (16-20)

The Florida Marlins were in the NL Wild Card hunt until the final season with a $16 million payroll. Padres rookies Adrian Gonzales and Josh Barfield were second and sixth among hitters, respectively in terms of “Value Over Replacement Player” (VORP) and fellow rookies Clay Hensley and Cla Meredith were second and fourth among the pitchers. Virtually every team needs to get meaningful contribution out of its farm in order to do well. Farm players are cheaper, thus allowing the team to spend money in other areas of need.

In addition to the four players mentioned above, the Padres also received contribution from several other Padres rookies. This off-season the Padres will have some $25 million coming off the books. While the Padres will likely be players on the free agent market, they will again need the support of the farm as they look to build on the success of a 88-win repeat-NL West Championship season.

In 2005 the Padres added CEO Sandy Alderson to the helm and he brought in Grady Fuson to run the Padres minor leagues/scouting departments. Since then the Padres have made significant gains in the scouting/development arenas.

Welcome to my top 25. Players will be introduced in reverse order, 5 at a time…

Monday I introduced you to numbers 21-25. Check back if you haven’t already seen that portion of my list.

Thanks for reading.

20. Matthew Buschmann, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: February 13, 1984, 6’3” 215 lbs.

Matt Buschmann, a 15th round pick in 2006 out of Vanderbilt University, was another pleasant late-round surprise for the Padres. Baseball America had this to say about Buschmann before he was drafted,


Buschmann stepped into Vandy's rotation as its Friday starter when David Price hit a slump during the season… He has good makeup and should be a good senior sign for a team looking for a player who could overachieve because of his athleticism and work ethic.

While his college statistics were not overly impressive, his professional debut was. Northwest League hitters batted .242/.300/.354 off Buschmann.

Buschmann features a 2-seam fastball, 4-seam fastball, slider, and change, and generally pitches in the 80’s…

The Padres brought Buschmann, who was drafted as a collegiate senior, up to Lake Elsinore; skipping Low-A Fort Wayne. A 22 year old who will turn 23 about the time pitchers and catcher report, Buschmann may very well skip Low A for good.

2006 Statistics:

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
1-0, 3.55 ERA, 12.2 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 5 SO, 2.27 GO/AO, .205 BAA

Short-Season (Eugene):
3-4, 3.12 ERA, 60.2 IP, 54 H, 26 R, 21 ER, 5 HR, 11 BB, 63 SO, 1.05 GO/AO, .242 BAA

19. Jon Knott, OF, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: August 4, 1978, 6’3” 220 lbs.

Jon Knott, the quintessential Ken Phelps All Star, watched another birthday go by before joining his big league club as a September call-up. Ken Phelps was a “4-A” player who many thought had the ability to perform at the big league level but never got the chance…

Knott is a power hitter and led the Pacific Coast League in home runs (with 32) despite playing his home games in one of the least offense-friendly parks in the league. Last season experts said that Knott wasn’t a prospect because he didn’t hit for a high enough average, struck out too much, didn’t get on-base enough, and played too poorly on defense.

2005: .250/.333/.483

Knowing he needed to work on those things, Knott delivered in virtually every category in 2006. He still doesn’t play very good defense, but he raised his batting average 30 points, he still struck out 100+ times, but did lower his total by 10, (on-base was up 20 points), and for good measure he hit more HR…

Knott is relegated to LF, but it is unlikely the Padres will give him the keys to the starting LF position in 2007. There are rumors that some Japanese teams are interested in Knott. If not, he may get a shot as a bench player.

2006 Statistics:

MLB (San Diego):
.000/.000/.000 – 3 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS

AAA (Portland):
.280/.353/.572 – 479 AB, 80 R, 134 H, 32 2B, 6 3B, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 52 BB, 103 SO, 3 SB, 3 CS

18. Michael Ekstrom, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: August 30, 1983, 6’0” 185 lbs.

Michael Ekstrom is the classic soft-tossing, finesse “lefty;” except he’s right-handed, as a top Padres official described Ekstrom. Ekstrom does not over power hitters, but his numbers remain solid.

The biggest concerns for Ekstrom are that he allowed so many unearned runs to score (Ekstrom allowed 21 unearned runs). When opposing hitters reach base via an error, Ekstrom needs to buckle down and prevent those runs for scoring as well. Secondly, his 2006 season was off to a splendid start in Lake Elsinore but took a sour turn in Mobile. While ERA remained solid, his strikeout rate plummeted (from 7.43 per 9 IP to 5.23/9) and his hit-rate climbed (8.31 hits per 9 IP, to 9.24/9). Ekstrom’s 2006 wasn’t a disaster (how can you call a 3.84 ERA in your first taste of AA-ball a “disaster?”), but he needs to get his hit rate below 9/9 and his strikeout rate above 6/9 (preferably back to that 7.4/9 rate or so) if he wants to be considered a serious prospect…

2006 Statistics:

AA (Mobile):
3-7, 3.84 ERA, 84.1 IP, 87 H, 46 R, 36 ER, 2 HR, 19 BB, 49 SO, 1.62 GO/AO, .261 BAA

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
7-4, 2.30 ERA, 82.1 IP, 76 H, 32 R, 21 ER, 2 HR, 21 BB, 68 SO, 1.51 GO/AO, .251 BAA

17. Chad Huffman, OF, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: April 29, 1985, 6’1” 205 lbs.

Huffman, a 2006 2nd round draft pick, has an athletic family tree. Huffman’s father, Royce, and grandfather, A.J., both played college football at Texas Christian University and his older brothers, Scott and Royce Jr., played football and baseball at TCU and Royce Jr. is now a catcher for the Round Rock Express. Chad is quite the athlete in his own right having played 1B, 2B, 3B, and now LF as well as being a back-up QB in college (yes, at TCU).

The Eugene Emeralds were well stocked at OF/DH this season so initially ABs were hard to come by. But as the season wore on, Huffman emerged as the offensive force on team and finished the season ranked 2nd in the Northwest League in Batting Average, 1st in On-Base Percentage and 2nd in Slugging.

Huffman will begin the 2007 season in Fort Wayne, but could be a mid-season promotion candidate if he duplicates his 2006 season.

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.214/.313/.357 – 14 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 0 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0 SB, 1 CS

Short-Season (Eugene):
.343/439/.576 – 198 AB, 41 R, 68 H, 17 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 BB, 35 SO, 2 SB, 3 CS

16. Jared Wells, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: October 31, 1981, 6’4” 200 lbs.

Wells had an amazing beginning to his 2005 campaign. In the prior off-season Padres’ brass said that Jared was a few small adjustments from taking off as a pitching prospect. And take off he did. Wells posted a 3.44 ERA in 120.1 Cal League innings and only allowed 6 HR in the offense-friendly league. Promoted to AA Mobile mid-2005, Wells still posted a respected ERA, but allowed more hits than IP, and his K/9 regressed to 4.6/9 from 5.98 per 9 in Lake Elsinore. Southern League hitters batted .307 off the Texan… Yet, many called the season a success.

Heading into 2006, Wells needed to regain his respectable 6ish K/9 rate and give up fewer hits. And he did… Then he was promoted. After 61.1 strong Southern League innings, Wells joined the AAA Portland Beavers… Again, after the promotion, he allowed more hits than IP, his BAA climbed back to .296 and again he walked nearly as many as he struck out 46 to 55 in 73 IP.

Wells will likely be back in AAA (he doesn’t have much trade value at the moment) and he has a history of having success the second time he sees a league.

Wells still throws in the low-mid 90’s 94ish on his 4-seam fastball, and 91-2 on more effective 2-seam fastball. His off-speed stuff still needs work and he may end up as a bullpen guy but he could also end up as a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater…

2006 Statistics:

AAA (Portland):2-9, 7.27 ERA, 73.0 IP, 87 H, 66 R, 59 ER, 8 HR, 46 BB, 55 SO, 1.01 GO/AO, .296 BAA

AA (Mobile):
4-3, 2.64 ERA, 61.1 IP, 53 H, 20 R, 18 ER, 4 HR, 27 BB, 49 SO, 1.05 GO/AO, .235 BAA

Check back tomorrow for numbers 11-15.