Well That Sucked...

While the Game 1 loss was disappointing, we have to keep it in perspective. One, the Padres have not lost back-to-back games in September 8-9. Two, the Padres scored got beat by the reigning NL Cy Young winner who will likely be top 3 finisher (and possibly back-to-back winner) in this year’s Cy Young race. Three, while we will probably get a second crack at Chris Carpenter in Game 4, the Cardinals will have to use Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and/or Anthony Reyes (with their 4.12, 5.75, and 5.06 respective ERAs) in games 2 and 3 and potentially game 5.

As long as the Padres don’t get too low they should be fine. After all, the Padres rebounded well after the Dodgers went back-to-back-to-back-to-back on them.

I repeatedly defended Bruce Bochy even though he frequently makes in-game decisions I disagree with (he's so good at handling a clubhouse I think he makes up for his strategic short-comings). Tonight he made a move I have to question (well a couple related ones really):

First, I should have brought this pre-game so it doesn’t like sour grapes, but too late for that now… Despite Piazza’s excellence this season, I thought starting Bard made a lot of sense on Tuesday (we’ll get back to this). In the 7th inning with runners at 1B and 3B, and with switch-hitting Geoff Blum at the plate and Tyler Johnson heading to the mound, Bochy pulled Blum in favor of pinch-hitter Josh Bard.

Now regardless of the success of that move, Bochy would need a pinch-hitter in the 8th spot in the batting order (Bochy had already double-switched and had the pitcher batting 8th). After Bard was hit by a pitch to load the bases, Bochy used Mark Bellhorn, another switch-hitter (like Blum and Bard) to pinch hit for the pitcher. Bellhorn, who probably should not have been on the playoff roster, predictably struck out.

While the Padres needed more than one run, they had gotten into the Cardinal bullpen (by far their weakest link). The key for the Padres wasn’t getting a three-run HR (though that would have been great), the Padres needed runs. Getting a fly-ball sac-fly would have closed the gap to 5-2, emboldened the Padre hitters and provided a “here we go again,” attitude for the Cardinals… Leaving Blum in the game to hit in the 7-hole would have allowed Bard to hit 8th and left the light-hitting Bellhorn (.190/.285/.344) on the bench.

Back to my theory that Bard should have started. The Cardinals have several lefty-relievers. Had Bard started in the place of Piazza, the threat of Piazza as a pinch-hitter could have hampered LaRussa’s bullpen usage or caused to LaRussa to burn through the Cardinal relievers more quickly. As it was, Tyler Johnson was effective in getting four outs before handing the ball to Adam Wainwright for the 9th.

Let’s go back to the 7th inning situation: one out with runners on 1st and 3rd… After LaRussa calls on Tyler Johnson to face Blum (let’s assume another HBP which is what happened to Bard in this situation), Bochy now has Piazza to pinch-hit. Assuming Bochy does use Piazza here, LaRussa would have likely countered with a right-handed reliever then another left-handed reliever to face Walker, Roberts, and Giles. While you don’t want to bench your best hitter just so you can use him one time, Carpenter is good enough that starting Bard could have paid dividends later.

Well enough hand wringing. Let’s take Game 2!