Thursday, October 05, 2006

Game 2 Report

David Wells’ Game 2 line:

5.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR, 69 pitches

It’s a shame Wells’ solid outing went to waste…

During the television coverage of the game, ESPN showed a televised a pre-recorded interview of manager Bruce Bochy. In the interview, Bochy said something to the effect that (paraphrasing), “We know [Albert Pujols] is a monster…”

Yet, with a man on second and first base open, Bruce did not call for a 4-pitch free pass. Pujols is now 5 for 8 (.625) with a 2B and a HR… In case you wondered, 3 singles, 1 double, and that HR work out to a 1.125 slugging rate.

Now, when Pujols comes to the plate with the bases empty, sure, pitch to him…

Edmunds is 3 for 7…
Rolen is 1 for 7
Encarnacion 3 for 7

While those three batters have combined to hit combined to hit .333, they collective have one extra-base hit - a double.

While those three are all decent hitters and dangerous in their own right, none of them are even potentially MVP candidates. Pujols, as you know, is one of two guys who will win the award this season. The Padres need to treat Pujols the way most teams treated Barry a few years ago.

I participated in Ducksnorts.com’s In-Game Discussion and “Richard” pointed out some interesting statistics…

The Padres put the ball in play 25 times. In those 25 plays, the Cardinals converted 84% of ‘balls in play’ into outs… The Padres led all of baseball in turning ‘balls in play’ into outs at about 71% (BaseballProspectus.com wouldn’t load at the time of publishing)… On the other hand, despite scoring only 2 runs, the Padres only converted 66% of the Cardinals’ ‘balls in play’ into outs.

So not only did the Padres make the mistake of pitching to Pujols, they were unlucky. There is simply no way to convert 84% of ‘balls in play’ on the strength of a team’s defense. The Padres were unlucky.

Down two games in a five-game series is not insurmountable, but it is daunting. The good news is luck turns. Luck evens out… But with only five games do the Padres have enough to woo Lady Luck to their dugout?

***
One last thing: in Game 2’s In-Game Discussion, a lot of us voiced displeasure with the umpires’ calls. It looked like Weaver was getting a lot of strike calls that Boomer was not getting. However, I couldn’t find one report or quote suggesting the Padres thought they were getting the raw end of the balls-and-strikes calls. I can’t help but wonder if the view from the CF camera was compounded by the trajectories from one right-handed pitcher compared to one from a left-handed pitcher… It looks like we were griping about nothing.