Monday, October 09, 2006

PRD's Top 25 Padres Minor League Players (21-25)

The Florida Marlins were in the NL Wild Card hunt until the final season with a $16 million payroll. Padres rookies Adrian Gonzales and Josh Barfield were second and sixth among hitters, respectively in terms of “Value Over Replacement Player” (VORP) and fellow rookies Clay Hensley and Cla Meredith were second and fourth among the pitchers. Virtually every team needs to get meaningful contribution out of its farm in order to do well. Farm players are cheaper, thus allowing the team to spend money in other areas of need.

In addition to the four players mentioned above, the Padres also received contribution from several other Padres rookies. This off-season the Padres will have some $25 million coming off the books. While the Padres will likely be players on the free agent market, they will again need the support of the farm as they look to build on the success of a 88-win repeat-NL West Championship season.

In 2005 the Padres added CEO Sandy Alderson to the helm and he brought in Grady Fuson to run the Padres minor leagues/scouting departments. Since then the Padres have made significant gains in the scouting/development arenas.

Welcome to my top 25. Players will be introduced in reverse order, 5 at a time…

Thanks for reading.

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25. Geoff Vandel, SP, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: June 9, 1987, 6’1” 190 lbs.

Geoff Vandel posted an exceptional 0.58 ERA in his 2005 professional debut between the AZL Padres and 10.0 inning stint in Eugene. Predictably, the Padres sent Vandel back to Eugene to begin his 2006 campaign.

After 11.0 innings with unfortunate results, the Padres sent the young lefty back to Arizona for his second stint with the club.

On August 15th, Vandel had an up-and-down relief-appearance. It was Vandel’s tenth appearance with the AZL Padres, all in relief. Over his next three appearances (all starts – his only AZL starts of the season) Vandel sparkled, going:

16.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 22 SO, 0 HR

…lowering his WHIP from 2.35 to 1.64 and his overall AZL ERA from 6.60 to 3.48. Vandel’s splits suggest he should remain a starter. He had a 6.60 ERA as a reliever and 0.58 ERA as a starter matching his 2005 season ERA.

Vandel throws a fastball that tops out around 90 mph and has a solid change. He also throws a developing curveball. The Padres hope Vandel adds a couple more ticks of velocity as he matures physically. With his moderate stuff, Vandel will probably need the extra velocity in order to succeed at higher levels.

The Padres will likely send Vandel back to Eugene for a second go at the Northwest League in 2007.

2006 Statistics:

Rookie (AZL Padres):
2-0, 3.48 ERA, 31.1 IP, 30 H, 17 R, 12 ER, 1 HR, 10 BB, 33 SO, 0.68 GO/AO, .244 BAA

Short-Season (Eugene):
1-0, 9.82 ERA, 11.0 IP, 19 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 1 HR, 10 BB, 11 SO, 2.00 GO/AO, .388 BAA

24. Sean Thompson, SP, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: October 13, 1982, 5’11” 170 lbs.

Sean Thompson, like many other Padres pitching prospects, had an up-and-down season. On the one hand he posted 3.84 ERA, had a 7.83 K/9 rate, and 1.59 GO/AO rate, on the other hand his record was a disappointing 6-10 and right-handed hitters hit 14 HR off him 114 innings.

Sean Thompson has a nice curveball that was once called “the best breaking pitch in the organization.” But only has average velocity. His ceiling is as a 4th or 5th starter but he’ll more likely be a lefty-specialist out of the ‘pen.

Thompson should move up to AAA in 2007.

2006 Statistics:

AA (Mobile):
6-10, 3.84 ERA, 154.0 IP, 148 H, 79 R, 66 ER, 18 HR, 46 BB, 134 SO, 1.59 GO/AO, .255 BAA

23. Ernesto Frieri, RP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: July 19, 1985

Ernesto Frieri burst onto the scene for the Padres last season with a 1.17 ERA in 46.1 AZL innings. While Frieri unimpressively walked 29, he did that while striking out 59 and only allowing 21 hits.

Flash-forward to 2006; the slender 21 yr. old was not as impressive in his follow-up season, but he did do well. He still walks too many 23 in 44+ innings, but he still doesn’t allow very many hits. Despite being right-handed he is particularly tough on left-handed hitters: 10 hits in 18.7 IP.

Ernesto works off a 90-92 fastball and changeup. He has a breaking pitch, but doesn’t like to use it much.

Ernesto has seen brief stints in both Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He’ll likely split time between the two in 2007.

2006 Statistics:

Short-Season (Eugene)
3-3, 3.82 ERA, 37.2 IP, 31 H, 18 R, 16 ER, 3 HR, 15 BB, 38 SO, 0.82 GO/AO, .231 BAA

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
0-0, 9.00 ERA, 1.0 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, 1 SO, 2.00 GO/AO, .333 BAA

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
0-0, 6.00 ERA, 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 4 SO, 1.33 GO/AO, .348 BAA

22. Neil Jamison, RP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: August, 4, 1983, 6’3” 185 lbs.

Neil Jamison’s claim to fame was that he posted a 0.00 ERA as collegiate closer his junior year. While he’s not having the same level success in professional baseball, he is doing well.

As a right-hander with average velocity and without a dominant pitch, Jamison predictably struggles against left-handed hitting (lefties hit .303 off Jamison and 11 of his 15 BB are to lefties).

Despite Neil’s success closing in college and compiling 31 saves in the Cal League this year, Jamison profiles most accurately as a set-up guy in the Majors.

2006 Statistics:

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
5-6, 3.31 ERA, 65.1 IP, 63 H, 30 R, 24 ER, 10 HR, 15 BB, 62 SO, 1.00 GO/AO, .248 BAA

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 9 SO, 0.00 GO/AO, 0.77 BAA

21. Orlando Lara, SP, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: May 20, 1985, 5’10” 185 lbs.

One of the brightest stars mined from the Padres’ extensive scouting in Mexico, Lara had a dominant season as a 20 year old in the Northwest League. Lara was 12th in the League in strikeouts but each pitcher with a greater total had at least 13 more innings pitched. He ranked second in the league in K/9 with 11.27 per 9 IP (of those with a minimum of 35 IP). Furthermore he was 10th in fewest hits allowed per 9 IP (7.07/9 IP).

While his stuff is not exceptional, his 2006 performance was. He needs to continue to work and develop to truly become a top prospect.

Lara should make his full-season Padres’ debut in Fort Wayne next year (although if skipped Low-A and went straight to High-A it wouldn’t be a surprise). This year was not a flash-in-the-pan either; he put up strong numbers in a Mexican league in 2005.

2006 Statistics:

Short-Season (Eugene):
2-1, 3.23 ERA, 47.1 IP, 37 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 4 HR, 14 BB, 59 SO, 0.88 GO/AO, .216 BAA

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Check back tomorrow for numbers 16-20.