Hot Stove Primer

I started this as a one-piece article. It is now 6 rambling pages long as I continue to profile additional off-season acquisistion targets. So I decided on a new format. Here is my initial comments and I'll profile various targets in coming days...

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On Sunday morning, October 7th, 2006 I received a blast e-mail from Michael J. Hindman. Hindman writes an in-depth report on what happens with the Texas Rangers’ minor league teams. And let me say, he does an EXCELLENT job.

The e-mail I received on that Sunday was different. Hindman entitled it, “MJH's Rangers 2007 Hot Stove Manifesto.” I wanted to link this article to it. But after e-mailing Michael, he told me, “I doubt it will go up on [Jamey Newberg’s NewbergReport.com] and I don't have anywhere to post it, so the e-mail version will likely be the only version.” When I told him I wanted to follow his format he said I didn’t need to give him credit. Posh!

Here is my “PRD’s Padres 2007 Hot Stove Manifesto” or Hot Stove Primer:

Padres 2007 25-man roster:

C –
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Josh Barfield
3B –
SS – Khalil Greene
LF –
CF – Mike Cameron
RF – Brian Giles

SP1 – Jake Peavy
SP2 – Chris Young
SP3 –
SP4 – Clay Hensley
SP5 –

Set-up1 – Cla Meredith
Set-up2 – Scott Linebrink
Closer – Trevor Hoffman

Middle-IF –
Corner-IF –
OF4 – Ben Johnson/Terrmel Sledge
C2 – Josh Bard
C3 – Rob Bowen

Mid-Rel1 –
Mid-Rel2 –
Mid-Rel3 –

According to HardballDollars.com (I also used the excellent MLB4U.com in my research), the Padres spent just shy of $75mm on their 40-man roster. The Padres’ 2007 payroll is likely to be in the same neighborhood.

While I didn’t add up the players’ salaries of those who did not spend significant time on the 25-man roster, other than Ryan Klesko and Shaun Estes, who each spent nearly the entire season on the DL, the Padres didn’t have any other player who cost more than $500,000. (most were less than $300k). If we assume a $300k average then those 15 players will cost $4.5 million (keep in mind, I’m assuming high here to force myself to spend conservatively).

Now, let’s look at that player list again by groupings:

IF/C (starters)

Adrian Gonzales is not yet arbitration eligible (I'm not 100% certain on this one - Adrian played sparingly in '04 and '05 - he wasn't a rookie and has less than two years cumulative service, but I could be wrong), as such he essentially will play for whatever the Padres want to spend on him. At the same time, the Padres will want to reward him for his excellent season. When Sean Burroughs was in this boat, the Padres gave him less than $400k. I think the Padres will be a bit more generous with their leading HR hitter; figure $500,000. Barfield is in the same boat as Gonzalez, but he didn’t play as well and Gonzalez came up to the majors in 2004 where Josh made his debut this year; let’s guess at $350,000 for Barfield.

Khalil Greene is a different story. Khalil, who came up at the end of 2003, is arbitration-eligible. Khalil did hit 15 HR for the third consecutive year (in 121 games - just like last year), but his oft-injured nature will likely hurt his arbitration chances. The Padres may try to trade the young shortstop, but they would need another SS in return (not likely). Arbitration is often ugly, don’t be surprised if the Padres try to lock up Greene fairly cheaply but for two or three years (giving both some security). Let’s assume $2 million.

The Padres have an option on Mike Piazza ($8 million). The Padres will likely try to negotiate with Piazza to keep him. If the Padres are able to get something done with Piazza, it will likely be north of $5 million; let’s assume $6 million.

That leaves third base… We’ll get back to this.

With third base up in the air, the Padres (in my Piazza-signing scenario) have now spent $8.85 million on the infield/catching starters.

OF (starters)

With three outfield positions, the Padres have three outfield contract situations. The Padres have Brian Giles signed for $9 million and an option of Mike Cameron for $7 million. The Padres will exercise that option. That leaves left field. In 2006, Padres’ leadoff hitter and fan favorite, Dave “Doc” Roberts, patrolled left field. The Padres have commented that they like Roberts and would like to have him back in 2007, but that they need more power in their lineup and left field is one of the few places they don’t have locked up. Roberts will likely not be back in 2007 for that reason. We’ll talk about potential left fielders later as well.

Again, with one position outstanding, the Padres have $16 million spoken for.

Starting Pitching

The Padres have three starting pitching slots spoken locked up. Staff Ace, Jake Peavy’s 4-year deal guarantees Jake $4.75 million in 2007. Chris Young, despite being a 2nd year player, already has a long-term deal. As a 6’10” collegiate basketball player a potential NBA allowed him to force a buy-out contract. He’s still inexpensive and will cost the Padres $500k in 2007. The third starter with a rotation slot locked up is Clay Hensley. Hensley debuted in 2005, but didn’t accumulate much service time. Like Barfield, the Padres can re-sign him essentially at whatever price they want. Hensley will like get a deal near $400k.

With two slots unspoken-for, the Padres have spent $5.65 million.

Relief Corps

The Padres’ back end of the relief corps, Meredith-Linebrink-Hoffman, is famously effective and relatively inexpensive. Scott Linebrink cost $1.365 million in 2006 and will cost $1.75 million in ’07. Cla Meredith, a 2006 rookie was paid a prorated portion of $300k. He’ll likely get a small raise to around $325,000. Hoffman’s deal paid him $6.75 in 2006 and he’ll get the same amount in ’07.

Assuming that the Padres will go with an eleven-man pitching staff, the Padres would carry six relievers. With the two set-up men and closer already costing an assumed $8.825 million

Alan Embree pitched well for the Padres in 2002 and talked about coming back. He parlayed that success into a big contract. After posting seven-plus ERA’s with both the Yankees and Red Sox in 2005, the Padres were able to sign Embree inexpensively for $850,000. After another good season with the Padres Embree will likely be in demand again. Towers calls himself, “the Sludge Merchant,” for his ability to find solid bullpen arms on the cheap, but Towers will likely want to re-sign Embree if he can do so at a reasonable price. Let’s assume the Padres do thank Embree and re-sign him with a sizable raise; $1.5 million – I’m comfortable with this price because if they do not sign Embree, the $1.5 million number will likely allow the Padres to sign a reasonable facsimile…

The Padres paid Scott Cassidy $330k and Brian Sweeny $340k. While those two are not necessarily going to have the same roles here in 2007, the Padres will again fill the last two bullpen jobs for less than $1 million.

Bench

With eight men starting in the field and an eleven-man pitching staff, the Padres have six bench jobs to fill. The Padres have a $1 million-option on Russell Branyan. They will likely exercise that option. Todd Walker, who best profiles as a 2B and has filled in at 3B and backed up at 1B, may want to go to a team where he can be a full-time starter. The Padres will probably try to work something out with Walker early but will definitely not offer him arbitration.

With Mike Piazza re-signed, the Padres will likely carry the same three catchers they did for the majority of 2006. Bard, who made a prorated $280k in 2006 figures to get a substantial raise, I’m estimating Bard’s 2007 salary to be $750,000 because I’m not sure what to make from his service time… Rob Bowen is also tricky. I don’t know exactly how you treat a guy who signed off the waiver wire. That said, I think the Padres will re-sign Bowen for something in the neighborhood of $400,000.

Ben Johnson or Terrmel Sledge could likely play the 4th outfielder role. Johnson has more speed so he could double as a pinch-runner and he also plays passable CF and has enough arm to handle RF. Johnson can be signed cheaply (figure $330k). Sledge on the other hand has a more reliable bat. Either could be a cheap LF starter and together they could play a platoon. More likely though, the Padres will solve LF via free agency and one of the two (Johnson or Sledge) will be a full-time bench guy for San Diego.

The Padres still need one “bat” and one “glove.” Bench players have become increasingly high profile and their salaries have followed suit. Expect the Padres to spend $2 million on these “last” two bench players; one has to be a reliable glove to spell Barfield and the oft-injured Greene, the other, preferably a right-handed hitter (Jon Knott? Lefty-hitting Paul McAnulty?) needs to be able to spell Adrian Gonzales at 1B.

Geoff Blum, a switch hitter who made $650k in 2006 could be back with San Diego in 2007, but will likely make close to double that amount as a result of his impressive ’06.

End Result

Before picking up anyone’s option, the Padres are on the hook for $32.3 million in 2007 by my calculations.

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Tomorrow I'll start posting my player profiles.