PRD's Top 25 Padres Minor League Players (1-5)

The Florida Marlins were in the NL Wild Card hunt until the final season with a $16 million payroll. Padres rookies Adrian Gonzales and Josh Barfield were second and sixth among hitters, respectively in terms of “Value Over Replacement Player” (VORP) and fellow rookies Clay Hensley and Cla Meredith were second and fourth among the pitchers. Virtually every team needs to get meaningful contribution out of its farm in order to do well. Farm players are cheaper, thus allowing the team to spend money in other areas of need.

In addition to the four players mentioned above, the Padres also received contribution from several other Padres rookies. This off-season the Padres will have some $25 million coming off the books. While the Padres will likely be players on the free agent market, they will again need the support of the farm as they look to build on the success of a 88-win repeat-NL West Championship season.

In 2005 the Padres added CEO Sandy Alderson to the helm and he brought in Grady Fuson to run the Padres minor leagues/scouting departments. Since then the Padres have made significant gains in the scouting/development arenas.

Welcome to my top 25. Players will be introduced in reverse order, 5 at a time…

Monday: 21-25
Tuesday: 16-20
Wednesday: 11-15
Thursday: 6-10

Check back if you haven’t already seen those portions of my list.

Thanks for reading.

5. Will Venable, OF, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: October 29, 1982, 6’2” 205

As you can see by the listed birth date, Will Venable was old for Low A… Venable was drafted (2005, 7th round) and signed by the Padres as a collegiate senior rather than a junior (Will was drafted by the Orioles in the 15th round as a junior but went back to school for his senior year) which slowied his development process. However, Will, whose father Max is the Padres’ Low-A hitting instructor, focused on basketball in high school and college (winning Princeton’s team MVP honors in both his junior and senior seasons). Venable did not even play baseball as a collegiate freshman. Thus Will has much less baseball experience than most Low-A players. Now, because Will was late to baseball, he may continue to “grow” into the sport, making the outfielder’s 2006 campaign, his first full-season of professional baseball, all the more impressive.

The Midwest League is known to suppress hitting stats. Yet Venable still posted solid “rate” and “counting” stats… Venable hit .314 with 34 doubles, 5 triples, and 11 home runs, scoring 86 runs and knocking in 91 (a new Fort Wayne record). Will should have a huge season next year in Lake Elsinore. Look for that HR total to rise dramatically in the offense-friendly Cal League.

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.314/.389/.477 – 472 AB, 86 R, 148 H, 34 2B, 5 3B, 11 HR, 91 RBI, 55 BB, 81 SO, 18 SB, 5 CS

4. Matt Antonelli, 3B, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: April 8, 1985, 6’0” 195 lbs.

Padres’ first selection in the 2006 draft, Matt Antonelli had a mixed inaugural professional season… A previous collegiate injury (arm related) flared up and caused the top pick to miss a week in the middle of the season. Then, after returning to action on July 27th, Antonelli went 9 for 60 (.150) over his next 17 games. Furthermore, after hitting a career-high 11 home runs as well as 18 doubles (.584 slugging percentage) as a junior at Wake Forest, Antonelli went homerless in his professional debut and managed only a .360 slugging rate in the offense-friendly Northwest League.

But the news regarding Antonelli isn’t all bad. Padres brass insist he has 5-tool talent (though even they don’t project Antonelli to hit more than 20 HR in the big leagues). Grady Fuson was quoted that Antonelli was a true “70” runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale). And probably most impressively, despite his lack of a power-display, Antonelli did control the strike zone with 31 strikeouts while working 46 walks.

Matt does not have prototypical power for a third baseman. And when he was promoted to Low-A Fort Wayne for their playoff push, Antonelli made a couple of starts at second. Although Antonelli’s speed suggests that a move to centerfield is possible, his Fort Wayne experience foreshadowed his move to the second base. Scout.com reported that Antonelli played exclusively at the keystone during the Instructionals.

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.125/.222/.313 – 16 AB, 3 R, 2 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS

Short Season A (Eugene):
.286/.426/.360 – 189 AB, 38 R, 54 H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 22 RBI, 46 BB, 31 SO, 9 SB, 1 CS

3. Chase Headley, 3B, Bats: S, Throws: R, Birthday: May 9, 1984, 6’2” 195 lbs.

Chase has an ideal body for baseball, strong and athletic he’s easily 10-20 lbs. heavier (and stronger) than his listed weight. He played his 2006 campaign in Lake Elsinore. If you’re not familiar with The Diamond in Lake Elsinore, it is nearly rectangular… Right field is relatively short and has a high wall. The left-center ally extends to 425 ft. (the deepest point of the park). Those dimensions held Chase to only 33 doubles and 12 home runs (only 4 of his 12 HR were at home) he hit .261/.368/.365 at home vs. .321/.409/.502 on the road.

The name I hear most often compared to Headley is Bill Mueller. Mueller has a career .291/.375/.425 line and his career-best season was in 2003 with the Red Sox when he hit .326/.398/.540 (his only year w/ a slugging percentage over .500). Mueller’s career is the type of career many envision Chase having (with the possibility of a little more power). Headley could be an occasional All Star and he’ll likely never embarrass his team offensively (whether he stays at 3B or moves to LF/RF) but it’s unlikely he’ll ever carry a team by himself.

A switch-hitter, Chase needs to work on his right-handed approach (Chase batted .237/.304/.341 against LHP).

2006 Statistics:

High-A Lake Elsinore:
.291/.389/.434 - 484 AB, 79 R, 141 H, 33 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 73 RBI, 74 BB, 96 SO, 4 SB, 5 CS

2. Cedric Hunter, OF, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: March 10, 1988, 6’0” 185 lbs.

Cedric burst onto the scene in 2006. Like most other signed high school draftees, Hunter was sent to his organization’s Rookie-ball club, the Arizona League Padres.

After drafting Hunter, Padres Director of Player Development, Grady Fuson, called Cedric, "…a Milton Bradley type player. [He’s a] very good athlete with a chance to be an offensive player in the middle of the field."

Rookie-ball pitchers aren’t known for being the most accurate, so a solid prospect with a decent eye can rack up a few walks. Rookie-ball umpires aren’t always the most accurate either, so racking up more than few strikeouts isn’t uncommon for even a top prospect with a good eye (i.e. when Colorado’s prospect, Ian Stewart, struck out 54 times in Rookie-ball, Colorado front office people said it was because he knew the strike zone better than the umpires did). In 213 Rookie-ball at-bats, Cedric only struck out 22 times… …and he walked 40 times. Cedric reached base 48 straight games to open his professional career. He went on to win the league MVP title.

Two things to watch for as Cedric develops: one, some scouts think his speed will diminish as he grows rendering him too big and too slow for centerfield, and two, unlike the previously mentioned Stewart, Cedric does not have prodigious power. If he moves off of CF, his 15-20 projected power may not play as a corner OF slot. While that could be an issue, if he continues to display the patience and strike zone control that he did in Arizona, he could hit 5 HR and be an asset.

2006 Statistics:

Short Season Eugene:
.267/.313/.267 – 15 AB, 0 R, 4 H, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 SB, 1 CS

Rookie Arizona League Padres:
.371/.467/.484 – 213 AB, 46 R, 79 H, 13 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 44 RBI, 40 BB, 22 SO, 17 SB, 5 CS

1. Cesar Carrillo, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: April 29, 1984 6’3” 175 lbs.

The slender right-hander missed most of 2006 after having forearm/elbow pain. The Padres have said he won’t need surgery, but his pain did return during a rehab throwing session in August, which shelved plans for Cesar to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. When healthy, Cesar throws a low-90’s two-seam fastball and mid-90’s four-seam fastball along with a changeup and curveball. Carrillo projects as a #2 starter.

Even with the injury, Carrillo’s profile is high enough (especially since the organization is thin at the higher levels) that he is the number one prospect in the organization.

Carrillo will likely begin the season back in AA to regain some confidence and will be quickly promoted to AAA (again).

If Carrillo proves healthy in 2007, he should emerge as one of the better starters in the upper levels of minor league baseball.

2006 Statistics:

AAA Portland:
0-0, 6.75 ERA, 2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 1 SO, 0.50 GO/AO, .222 BAA

AA Mobile:
1-3, 3.02 ERA, 50.2 IP, 45 H, 23 R, 17 ER, 5 HR 15 BB, 43 BB, 1.76 GO/AO, .239 BAA