Future Padre, Alfonso Soriano (?)

Starting in the outfield, I am profiling several acquisition candidates: trade candidates, free agency candidates, and internal candidates.

Alfonso Soriano – In 2006, Alfonso had his best year (.277/.351/.560). In fact, Soriano’s 2006 surprised a lot of people (including me). Texas is probably the best hitters’ park in the American League yet Soriano had his worst two years since his rookie campaign (.280/.324/.484 in 2004 and .268/.309/.512 in 2005). After moving to Washington’s spacious RFK many people (including me) logically concluded that Soriano was headed for a decline. Instead Soriano went out and joined the illustrious 40-40 club (46 HR & 41 SB).

After a career-year in 2006, many people (again) concluded Soriano is headed for a decline. This time, I am not one of those people.

Soriano played for Buck Showalter in 2004 & ’05. At the end of 2006, Soriano’s former team, the Texas Rangers, did what former Buck Showalter teams do, mutinied and had Buck fired. I think getting out from under Buck was a boon to Soriano’s career. I also think Bruce Bochy, a highly regarded players’ manager, would allow Soriano to shine.

Now for the bad part: Soriano has already turned down a 5-year, $70 million extension with the Washington Nationals. It will likely take at least $75 to sign the left fielder.

So if the Padres did commit to Soriano, and I have been told that Towers does like Soriano (no word as to whether Alderson likes Soriano as well), what can we expect?

I looked at Soriano’s career averages (I excluded his 1999 and 2000 seasons when he played 9 and 22 games respectively). Soriano has averaged:

.280/.325/.510 with 39 2B, 3 3B, 34 HR, 37 BB, 136 SO, 35 SB, and 10 CS

In his last three years his numbers are:

.275/.328/.519 with 39 2B, 3 3B, 37 HR, 44 BB, 135 SO, 30 SB, and 8 CS

…And of course last season he hit:

.277/.351/.560 with 41 2B, 2 3B, 46 HR, 67 BB, 160 SO, 41 SB, and 17 CS

Obviously if Soriano’s new employer (the Padres, Cubs, or whomever) gets five years of .277/.351/.519 and 35-40 HR, he’ll be worth every penny. On the other hand, if Soriano reverts to his hack-o-matic 35-walk seasons, he could be a drag on his new team’s offense.

In the previous paragraph I intentionally use the word “could.” Again, if Soriano doesn’t continue to take walks at his 2006 rate, “he could be a drag on his new team’s offense.” Soriano’s career XBH-rate is 42.7% In 2005, Soriano had 81 XBH out of 171 hits (47.4%) and in 2006 he had a 49.7% XBH-rate. I have a hard time believing that a player who gets 170+ hits per season and has a 45-50% XBH-rate is an offensive drag because he averages one fewer walk per week. Yes, the difference between Soriano’s “poor” typical season (33 walks) and his “good” 2006 season is about one walk per week.

Now I’m a FIRM believer in the power of the walk, but have we taken it too far? I’m just asking…

All in all, I have time concluding that Soriano is bad investment. But he’s obviously a big investment.