Future Padre - Carlos Lee (?)

Carlos Lee – To me, Carlos has a series of conflicting statistics that alternatively suggest that Lee can maintain his dominant 2006 or refute that very hypothesis.

• Lee walks nearly as much as he strikes out (58 BB vs. 65 SO).
• Among qualifying MLB left fielders, Lee has the third worst pitches per plate appearance…
• Lee has hit between 35 and 41 doubles for six consecutive years.
• Lee’s batting yearly batting averages have yo-yo’d (starting in 2002): .264, .291, .305, .265, and .300 in 2006.
• Lee is generally regarded as a poor defender and his conservatively listed playing weight of 240 is potentially disconcerting for a player already 30 years old.
• Lee stole 19 bases in 2006 (and at least 11 in every year of his career except 2001) suggesting he might be a better athlete than we thought.
• Lee also put up his big numbers in offense-friendly environments. What would 81 games in PETCO plus another 20 in San Francisco’s and Los Angeles’ pitcher-friendly ballparks do to his production?

Lee arguably had as big of a 2006 as Soriano, but Lee did so without the East Coast spotlight and with out the prestige that Soriano’s 40-40 year ensured. Lee hit .300/.355/.540 between 102 games with Milwaukee and 59 games with Texas. He hit 37 HR and 37 doubles between his two stops and surprisingly stole 19 bases while getting caught only twice.

Lee will likely command fewer dollars than Soriano (but not by much). And like Soriano, it will likely require a five-year commitment to win Lee’s services…

Lee’s career averages are .286/.340/.495. While two of the last three years exceeded his average production, would we get enough out of Lee to justify the investment?