Padres Mid-Season Top 15 (16) Prospects

This was supposed to be a top 15 group, but I had to include #16 as well. These are my rankings (in parentheses is the ranking Baseball America gave the prospect at the beginning of the 2006 season).

1. George Kottaras C (Baseball America’s 2006 #2 Padres Prospect)

George hit .276/.394/.451 in 257 at bats with AA Mobile. He has since been promoted to AAA Portland and is hitting .269/.321/.500 in 26 at bats with the Beavers. His catching skills continue to draw concern, though I wonder if his lack of defense is consistent with the same reported lack of defense that Josh Barfield and Khalil Greene supposedly had.

2. Matt Antonelli 3B (NR)

Padres first selection from the 2006 amateur draft, Matt Antonelli, is hitting .309/.440/.381. Matt obviously shows good hitting ability and a phenomenal ability to control the strike zone (only 12 SO to go along with 23 BB in 97 AB). He hasn’t hit a professional HR yet, but does have 5 2B and a 3B. I ran into Tony Gwynn and had a chance to talk shop with him for 30-45 minutes. Tony, who has watched Matt take batting practice, says that Matt won’t hit for much power. Though I believe he should hit 10-15 annually. That lack of power plus a reported “70” running ability (on the scouts’ 20-80 scale) will likely lead to a defensive shift to CF (2B is also a possibility).

3. Cesar Carrillo RHP (#1)

Carillo could be #1 on this list again if he was healthy. I searched around for additional information, contacted a source, etc… I was able to unearth a quote from Portland Beavers manager, Craig Colbert, “I don’t know if we’ll see [Carrillo] again (in Portland), there’s a lot of precaution being taken,” said Colbert in the LocalNewsDaily.com.

Before the injury, Cesar had posted the following line:

In AA Mobile:

1-3 50.2 IP, 45 H, 23 R, 17 ER, 15 BB, 43 SO, 5 HR, 3.02 ERA

Even if Carrillo is shut down, he still has the ability to be a solid 2-3 starter in a rotation. I like the Padres’ patience with Carrillo’s injury. He pitched close to 200 innings last season between collegiate and professional seasons. Giving Carrillo’s right arm time off could not only protect the Padres’ investment, but allow Cesar to come back stronger.

4. Chase Headley 3B (#5)

The 2nd round pick from 2005’s draft continues to shine. Chase is hitting .292/.385/.449 at the hot corner in Lake Elsinore (in 356 AB). He has 10 HR and 26 2B (his HR total leads the team and his 2B total ranks 2nd). He also has solid ability to control the strike zone as evidenced by his 52/65 BB/SO ratio. Chase is currently the 3B of the future, but plans to acquire a good (youngish) 3B could make Headley redundant. You don’t have to worry about it though, Headley is good, but he’s not Miguel Cabrera. If you block him it’s not the end of the world (Headley has enough athleticism that he could probably play OF if the Padres wanted to move him).

5. Cedric Hunter OF (NR)

When he was drafted, Grady Fuson said in MLB.com that, Hunter is "…a Milton Bradley type player. [He’s a] very good athlete with a chance to be an offensive player in the middle of the field."

Cedric is currently hitting .324/.429/.402 with 6 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, and an excellent 19/11 BB/SO ratio. Cedric is quickly becoming one of my favorite Padres’ prospects. He currently has enough range to play CF, but often plays LF for AZL Padres. It’s uncertain if he’ll develop enough power to handle a corner.

6. Will Venable OF (NR)

My other favorite prospect… I’d like to see a few more HR, but Will is showing that Lo-A is beneath him. Will is hitting .321/.407/.465 with 29 2B, 3 3B, and 4 HR to go with a 46/50 BB/SO ratio. He played basketball in college and has that same athleticism as Hunter.

7. Paul McAnulty 1B/LF (#8)

Rodney Dangerfield gets more respect. McAnulty is hitting .326/.407/.549 with 24 2B and 13 HR and a 44/52 BB/SO ratio. McAnulty deserves a chance to be a big league regular. He would probably be very similar to Jeremy Giambi; some power, good BA, solid on-base skills… The problem is, like Jeremy Giambi, he doesn’t play solid defense. He usually plays 1B and has some experience in LF and is getting some PT at 3B lately as well. The Padres may see him as a less athletic, non-defensive specialist version of Chone Figgins and try to get his bat in the lineup rotating between the 3 positions.

8. Nick Hundley C (#9)

Rumor has it that Hundley’s more advanced catching skills (plus Bard/Bowen’s big league success) have made Kottaras expendable leaving the “catcher of the future” moniker for Nick Hundley.

Nick started the season in Lo-A and has since moved to Hi-A Lake Elsinore… Despite his Hi-A struggles, Nick has a solid bat.

Fort Wayne (215 AB):

.274/.355/.474 with 19 2B and 8 HR and a 25/45 BB/SO

Lake Elsinore (50 AB):

.260/.288/.280 with 1 2B and 0 HR and a 2/14 BB/SO

9. Kyle Blanks 1B/LF (#15)

The 6’6” 270lbs. behemoth actually has athleticism to spare. His power still isn’t fully developed, but he has stroked 30 XBH (out of 90 hits) and is hitting .292/.382/.455 with 20 2B and 10 HR and a 36/79 BB/SO ratio. Blanks, who is still young for Lo-A (and shares a birthday with my sister; Sept. 11), will turn 20 later this year but needs to improve his strike zone discipline if he wants his prospect star to shine brighter.

10. Jared Wells RHP (#7)

Kevin Towers once called Wells the top arm in the system. I wouldn’t go that far, but it does suggest that Wells might still be a work in progress. On the other hand, one of the Baseball America writers once said that while tools are more important than performance, tools without performance is worrisome.

Wells has the stuff: low-90’s 2 seamer, mid-90’s 4-seamer, and requisite off-speed stuff but he has yet to truly dominate over a full season.

AA Mobile stats:

4-3 61.1 IP, 20 R, 18 ER, 27 BB, 49 SO, 4 HR

AAA Portland stats:

1-3 35.1 IP, 21 R, 20 ER, 25 BB, 28 SO, 3 HR

11. Cesar Ramos LHP (#11)

Rated by BA as the #11 prospect in the beginning of 2006 wasn’t much of a compliment. Being rated as such by me now, is more of one. The Padres organization infused quite a bit of talent into a pretty poor talent group in the 2006 draft. And “the other Cesar” has had 2 lower rated guys (Venable and Blanks) pass him by. Still #11 on this list is better than #11 on the previous list.

Cesar hasn’t pitched brilliantly this year, but he has been serviceable in what is quite the hitters’ league.

6-4 113.0 IP, 122 H, 48 R, 38 ER, 33 BB, 58 SO, 9 HR

The lefty needs to improve his strikeout total and give up fewer hits if he wants to remain #11 (or move higher) on this list (fellow lefty Wade LeBlanc is bearing down).

12. Luis Cruz SS/2B (NR)

The 2006 Future’s Game participant reeks of athleticism and raw tools. He is “hitting” .276, and with power (31 2B and 9 HR) and reportedly plays solid D… However his on-base skills leave something to be desired (only .307). He’ll probably get to the big leagues and may even become a starting SS in an odd year. But he’ll likely have a long career as a defensive specialist.

13. Kyler Burke OF (NR)

This ranking is all projection. Kyle had some of the best power potential of any high school hitter in the 2006 draft. He’s struggling in Rookie ball but should be just fine. Kyler is hitting .218/.293/.299 with 0 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR and a 10/29 BB/SO ratio.

14. David Freese 3B (NR)

David’s more than a bit old (drafted as a collegiate 5th-year senior), the 23 year old has already been promoted from Short Season Eugene to Lo-A Fort Wayne.

Eugene stats (58 AB):

.379/.465/.776 with 8 2B and 5 HR and a 7/12 BB/SO ratio

Fort Wayne stats (64 AB):

.313/.380/.469 with 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR and a 4/12 BB/SO ratio

As noticed by his stats, David is raking. He has power to spare as well as the needed contact hitting ability and ability to control the strike zone. But as an older prospect his clock will tick faster.

15. Matt Bush SS (#13)

There might not be a single player that leads observers to draw a wider range of conclusions in all of minor league baseball. Matt Bush is PURE 5-tool talent. His biggest problem is his own head. He wants to display his talents and ends up pressing and forcing himself into mistakes. He does have considerable power for a shortstop, he has a pure “80” arm (leaving more than few people to suggest a return to pitching – in high school he threw 95 mph), he has phenomenal range (despite racking up 38 errors BA said he had “plus range” to either side and “is a potential Gold Glover.”

In 71 AB with the Fort Wayne Wizards, Bush is hitting .268/.333/.310 with 3 2B and a 6/13 BB/SO ratio. He missed roughly two months recovering from a broken ankle. His prospect status is slipping fast. He has the tools to recover, but at this point it seems unlikely.

16. Craig Cooper 1B (NR)

Another senior draftee from the 2006 draft class, Craig Cooper is also doing well. Craig is hitting .303/.404/.420 with 8 2B and 2 HR and a 17/26 BB/SO ratio. Cooper’s a bit old (only 2 years younger than current Padres 1B and former #1 overall pick, Adrian Gonzalez), so he’ll need to make strides quickly. But he is hitting well to start his professional career.