Baseball Trade Talk in July = Subertfuge?

I was listening to Darren Smith and Philly Billy on the Mighty XX (AM 1090, FM 105.7) this afternoon as I was driving home from an appointment. Now I'm not their biggest fan, but they jumped to a great conclusion...

As noted elsewhere, the Padres are supposedly hot after Adrian Beltre. However, Adrian is owed $35m over the next 3 years. And his lack of plate discipline (.327 career OBP, .321 this year) doesn’t gel with what Towers/Alderson are building. Furthermore, the Padres are also supposedly considering Mike Lowell for their 3B hole. But Lowell would create a hole for Boston and they’re after pitching; we don’t want to give up pitching.

Darren & Billy went on to remind us that when they had Sandy Alderson on he specifically said the Padres wanted someone whose rights they would “control.” He did not say he’d want someone under contract. Keep in mind Alderson is a former lawyer. He’s used to being very precise. He wouldn’t be someone who would say something on accident.

Darren concluded that our interest in Lowell and Beltre is subterfuge to drive down the price for Houston’s 3B, Morgan Ensberg. Houston’s farm system is virtually devoid of catching talent and George Kottaras, our #1 trading chip and a chip we are willing to part with, would be a good “get” from their point of view.

I thought this was a GREAT piece of analysis.