Another QS from B-Law & Some College Hitters

8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO. 0 HR, 99 pitches

You would expect that line from last night’s starter, but not from Brian Lawrence.

Wow. Another reason why we need to look at stats over a longer period as opposed to a short one… Look, B-Law is not Cy Young reincarnate. He never will be. But who of you knew that B-Law had pitched a “quality start” in 3 of his 5 starts?

Hey Sean, see, Major League Baseball history is made on the inside pitch.

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In my previous interview with Kevin Goldstein, I mentioned that I’m stathead “every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.” After I wrote that and after the interview, I realized that it might not be perceived the way I intended. What I meant, was that I don’t have scouting background so I rely on stats. As someone who follows baseball VERY closely, I value both types of analysis; I just tend to perform one type of analysis and talk to people like Kevin to get the latter.

Now that we got that out of the way, I wanted to look at some college hitters who seasons suggest they could be players taken around when the Padres pick at 18, 35, 68, 78, & 99. Again, to make sure I’m not misunderstood, I do think the Padres should take the best players available; high school or college, I just don’t have the ability or the information to look at any of the high school players… Additionally some of the guys mentioned will not have the right tools to perform at higher levels thus may end their baseball careers at the colligate ranks despite impressive numbers.

Without further ado:

Trevor Crowe, Jr. OF, Arizona

This switch-hitting outfielder doesn’t profile (statistically) to have the power of some of the other guys, but his numbers definitely give us reason take notice. Crowe does have 7 HR, and 20 2B so the power may be there, but it’s his speed (8 3B & 18-for-22 in stolen base attempts) that makes me think that his power might be a product of the aluminum bats. Encouragingly, Crowe also is patient and can take a walk (27/24 BB/SO ratio). Interestingly, Crowe’s dad was a professional golfer. Crowe is probably not a player for one of the top Padre selections, but he’ll likely get some later-round consideration.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Jr. OF, Oregon St. Univ.

Ellsbury is batting .451/.546/.673. He doesn’t have the power I’d prefer to see, but he has the 4th best BA in the country to go with the 6th best OBP. Furthermore, he’s sporting an amazing 25/8 BB/SO ratio. Ellsbury has hit quite a few doubles; 12, and he does have 6 HR, so he still may further develop his power, and I have heard about him as a legit first-round prospect.

Kris Harvey, Jr. OF/1B/RHP, Clemson

Harvey is batting .364/.418/.721 with 17 HR (co-leading in college baseball). His BB/SO rate is worrisome (15/29) but the power is there. He doesn’t project to be a first round guy, but someone who could be nice prospect somewhere in the 2-5 rounds. His pitching background is useful in the field as his bio claims Baseball America rated his arm as the best outfield arm in the ACC and the 48th best Jr. in the country.

Chase Headley, Jr. OF/3B/1B, Tennessee

I can’t remember if I’ve heard about Headley as a prospect, but his numbers are eye-popping (.386/.545/.689). Maybe most impressive of all, Headley is sporting a 48/15 BB/SO ratio – WOW! Obviously numbers can’t tell us if he has the bat-speed to succeed at higher levels of play and with a wood bat, but he plays in the competitive SEC and has hit 13 2B and 12 HR. He’s listed at 3B but has 14 errors, so he probably profiles more accurately as 1B/OF type. He’s still young for a college junior; he’ll turn 21 this May.

Jeff Larish, Sr. 1B/3B, Arizona State

Jeff Larish meet Rob Deer. Larish is the classic all or nothing hitter. He’s hitting .331/.457/.704 with 16 HR and 13 2B. To complete the “all or nothing” profile, Larish has walked 37 times and struck out 41 times. His strikeout totals are VERY worrisome, but his power and hitting ability are unquestioned. The Dodgers control his rights, but he’s likely to still be playing late enough in the season to prevent the Dodgers from getting him under contract.

Ryan Patterson, Sr. OF, Louisiana State

This senior outfielder was drafted by Atlanta in 2002. He’s a co-leader in the college baseball home run title chase (17). But his numbers also show other areas of excellence. In addition to the HR total, he has 18 2B, and a 20/16 BB/SO ratio. I have heard his name among those to watch this year. As noted above, he’s a senior, so he has less negotiating power so a team looking to get some production without spending a lot may draft him early. Even without being a “value” pick, he merits consideration in the top few rounds.

Jason Twomley, Sr. OF, Massachusetts

Twomley is another lefty OF prospect. He’s not overly large (6’0” 215lbs.) but he has obvious power ranking first in college baseball in slugging (.898) and OPS (1.425) – that’s stupid, video-game good. Overall he’s hitting .398/.527/.898. He’s not a hitter that I recall hearing about as top prospect, but his numbers merit a look. He’s a senior, so he’s older; he’ll turn 23 in September this year. And thus he’d come cheap. I’d be surprised if he fell out of the top 5 rounds.

Ryan Braun, Jr. 3B/OF, Miami

My friends tease me for talking about a Hurricane as a prospect. In addition to baseball, I’m also a huge College Football fan and the Miami Hurricanes are my favorite team. Anyway, I wrote previously about Braun and I’d still love to see the Padres take him or someone like him with the 18th and/or 35th selection. Ryan is currently hitting .425/.523/.771 with 13 HR and 12 2B and a 23/20 BB/SO ratio.

This is not an exhaustive (or even one even close to it). This is just a quick look at some top offensive college hitters. Boyd Nation’s excellent website, BoydsWorld.com, was where I got the hitters’ rankings. Boyd also links to virtually every team’s statistics and schedule pages.