Draft Stuff – First take

Part 1: Padres’ 1st Round Draft Analysis

To the casual Padre fan, the Padres have had poor drafts for many years:

First round picks this decade:

2000: Mark Phillips
2001: Jake Gautreaux
2002: Khalil Greene
2003: Tim Stauffer
2004: Matt Bush
2005: Cesar Carrillo
2006: Matt Antonelli
2007: Nick Schmidt
2008: Allan Dykstra

When you look at that list you cannot help but be underwhelmed (at least). But to say the Padres have drafted poorly is incomplete analysis at best and potentially even dishonest…

The current Padres drafting/scouting team has only been in place since 2005 (even then, Grady Fuson joined the team and advised on 2005 – he didn’t take over the lead role until the 2006 draft).

Let’s look at the ’03 and later first round selections.

In the 2003 draft, there were 4 players who were uniformly rated above the rest: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Kyle Sleeth, and Tim Stauffer. With the Padres drafting 4th, they took the only one of the four available when it was their turn. Stauffer was a classic stuff & command guy. He pitched at 89-92 and could touch 94-5 with lots of movement. The weekend prior to the draft, with his college team in the playoffs and facing elimination, his coach left him on the mound for approximately 150 pitches. It would be his last amateur game. As the Padres were coming to terms with Stauffer, he revealed that his shoulder was injured. Following shoulder surgery, Stauffer regained most of his velocity but not the movement on his fastball. He went from a legitimate #2 starter to possible (and now failed) 5th starter.

I’m not going to rehash the 2004 Matt Bush debacle, that one is well-chronicled and blame lies 100% on the Padres.

In 2005 the Padres drafted Cesar Carrillo from University of Miami 18th overall. Baseball America had this to say about Carrillo:

Carrillo throws his fastball anywhere from 90-95 mph (touching 96-97), depending on the need, and he has shown scouts the ability to maintain his velocity deep into games. His fastball has excellent sink and life down in the zone from a three-quarters arm slot…

Since requiring Tommy John surgery, Carrillo has gotten most of his velocity back (I’ve heard he’s hit several 95’s). His current weakness (which I personally saw last year in Lake Elsinore) was consistency – or lack thereof. Veterans of Tommy John surgery usually struggle with command their first year after surgery. This is year two. So we’ll know more about Cesar as this season progresses. But was this a bad selection? Absolutely not. Cesar was a legitimate pick at 18 and would not have been a poor selection a few spots higher.

The following year, the Padres selected Matt Antonelli. Antonelli was described as an “excellent” athlete. As a prep Antonelli won Massachusetts player of the year in 2 sports and was runner up in a third; a fact that reinforces scouts’ perception of Antonelli’s athletic prowess.

Once drafted Antonelli had a sublime 2007 and a horrific 2008. Which season best demonstrates Antonelli’s prospect status? He’s probably somewhere in-between… Should we consider his selection a poor one? No, of course not. He’s a premium athlete who reached the majors in his second full season after being drafted. Is Antonelli a sure thing? No, but is there such a thing? Another solid pick.

In 2007 the Padres drafted another collegiate pitcher, Nicholas Schmidt. BA said Schmidt “should become a good No. 3…” Unfortunately, for Schmidt, the Padres passed on uber-prospect, Rick Porcello - just like 22 other teams before them and 3 more teams drafting after them. Because the Padres passed on Porcello Padre fans used this a data point in the 'Padres are cheap' argument and villified Schmidt in the process. Adding injury to insult, Schmidt blew out his elbow 8 innings into his professional career and like Carrillo, required Tommy John surgery at the end of 2007. Schmidt is just now getting back into full-swing. And like most of the other recent picks, the jury is out…

The story around the Padres first round pick in 2008 makes me laugh. Padre fans continuously evoke the Diamondbacks as a team that drafts well. And those same Padre fans were up in arms regarding rumors and predictions that the Padres were going to draft collegiate relief pitcher, Daniel Schlereth with the 23rd pick. When the Padres’ turn to draft came around, they selected collegiate first-baseman, Allan Dykstra. The irony here is that the Diamondbacks were going to select Dykstra if he was available at 26. Instead, they selected – you guessed it – Daniel Schlereth. Padre fans complained anyway. Let’s not let logic get in the way of emotion…

From 2003 (with the exception of 2004) it would be fair to say the Padres have had worse luck than actually poor drafting. Now it could be argued that they’ve had problems developing pitchers or that they need to do a better job identifying which pitchers pose greater injury risks… Those would be fair criticisms. But for all the armchair scouting directors who think they could do a better job, would you have drafted Kellen Kulbacki in the supplemental round, or Jaff Decker, or Cedric Hunter, or Chase Headley, or Anthony Bass? The Padres’ biggest problem (when it comes to drafting) is one of perception not success.

Part 2: 2009 1st Round Draft Targets

Most of you know, the Padres pick third in the upcoming MLB amateur draft. Since we are close to the NFL draft, it is important to point out a significant difference football’s and baseball’s drafts. In the NFL draft, the Chargers (for instance) won’t draft Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez if either happened to fall to them because they have a top flight QB. Conversely, in baseball’s draft, teams primarily draft their highest rated prospect regardless of position.

However, the Padres have given us some good clues about where they are leaning… Towers recently said that they targeted hitters in the last draft because they knew there was a lack of hitters in the 2009 draft. Towers has also talked about the quality of pitchers in this draft and on the big league club there has been renewed interest pitchers with above-average velocity fastballs. I think we safely assume that interest will correspond to the pitchers they draft as well.

(listed alphabetically)

Dustin Ackley, 1B, UNC

Ackley might be the most intriguing hitting prospect in the draft. His numbers are quite impressive:

.393/.503/.700 with 9 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 9/10 in stolen base attempts, and a 31/18 BB/SO ratio

Before the season started, a lot of experts expected Ackley to play CF at least half-time. He has played some CF but not as much as expected. Additionally, some have suggested he could play 2B. If the Padres believe he can play 2B or CF he would be solid selection. However, if he is only a first-baseman or corner outfielder his stock is downgraded and I cannot see the Padres selecting him…

Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats (Independent League)

The number 9 draft pick from 2008, Crow went unsigned and is back in this draft. Crow’s fastball sits at 91-95 and can touch 97-8. He’s “only” 6’1” so some question his ability to front a rotation and wonder if he wouldn’t be better suited to relief.

(no 2009 statistics – 2008 statistics shown)

13-0 with 2.35 ERA in 107.1 IP, 85 H allowed, 38/127 BB/SO ratio

Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri

Polished collegiate with hard slider and a fastball that sits at 87-91 and can touch 93-4…

6-3 with 3.00 ERA in 69.0 IP, 62 H allowed, 11/90 BB/SO ratio

Grant Green, SS, USC

After an unimpressive (statistically) beginning to his junior season, Grant Green's numbers are rebounding and his draft stock is as high as anyone not named Stephen Strasburg. People have said he’s a cross between Troy Tulowitzky and Evan Longoria but that’s probably at least a little hyperbole. Longoria’s bat is quite special. While Green arguably has a higher ceiling than Tulo, his bat will not likely rival Longoria’s.

.371/.444/.556 with 9 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 12/16 in stolen base attempts, and a 13/26 BB/SO ratio

Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA)

Lefty prep pitcher who’s touching 96…

Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX)

Lefty prep pitcher who’s touching 95-96… According to Baseball America he is rated a touch behind Matzek because of mechanics but may ultimately have greater velocity on his FB.

Alex White, RHP, UNC

Alex started the season slow (not a ton of strikeouts, more hits than you would like vs. collegians, etc.) but his stats are coming back around…

6-1 with 3.14 ERA in 63.0 IP, 49 H & 7 HR allowed, 23/72 BB/SO ratio

Alex’s fastball sits in the low-mid 90s (91-94) and can touch 96-7. But according to a recent Baseball America report, “…scouts have expressed concerns over a change in his arm action.”

One would suspect that his arm action could be corrected or reverted but conversely it could portend a hidden injury.

* All collegians’ stats as of April 18

(Links are to Brewerfan.net scouting reports – I have looked at these and like what they put out. I wanted to give you credible scouting reports. My analysis is from a variety of sources and is my own spin on what I read and hear.)

My current ranking:

1. Grant Green
2. Dustin Ackley (provided he can play CF or 2B – if not, rank him behind White)
3. Tyler Matzek
4. Aaron Crow
5. Alex White (though if his arm action checks out okay I would put him ahead of Matzek)
6. Kyle Gibson
7. Matt Purke

Again, the Padres draft third in this year’s draft. The Washington Nationals will draft Stephan Strasburg #1 overall and Seattle Mariners will likely take one of the players I’ve listed. The Padres will get second crack at the non-Strasburg prospects. At this point (way early) I would be surprised if either the Mariners or Padres selected someone other than the 7 players I have listed here.