Some Reasoning...

The crazy thing is, once you do a list like that you wish you could make changes… And you always find someone you miss. Oops.

I missed on James Darnell. I wouldn’t have him as highly rated as some people do, but he should be in the 15-25 range.

Additionally, you do not see Adis Portillo on the list…

I want to go a different direction with this essay. Some people I think I have Darnell rated too low. Others can’t believe I do not have Adis Portillo on the list… Let me explain my rational.

One thing you see in this industry is an eagerness to rank some hotshot draftee or international signee at the top of a team’s list (or near the top). I am admittedly cherry-picking here, but let’s look at 2003 draft (people often say it takes 5 years to properly evaluate a draft, so this works well):

2003 Draft Top 10 selections:

Delmon Young – MLB OF’er – traded to the Twins, rumored to be on the block again (2)
Rickie Weeks – a solid MLB 2B but not the ubër-star people expected (1)
Kyle Sleeth – he was good in ’03 & ’04 but he has a career 6.32 MiLB ERA (1)
Tim Stauffer – drafted with bum shoulder – never regained collegiate promise (4)
Chris Lubanski – HS OF’er, not enough bat to be an MLB starting corner-OF (2)
Ryan Harvey – supposed “steal of the draft” has career MiLB line: .247/.298/.446 (3)
Nick Markakis – on his way to a prenniel All-Star RF (3)
Paul Maholm – 2.71 career MiLB ERA, 4.30 career MLB ERA – solid future (8)
John Danks – One of my favorite picks, 4.20 career MiLB ERA and 4.23 MLB ERA (2)
Ian Stewart – Solid MiLB numbers but played in hitters’ parks – unknown (2)

(The number in the parenthesis indicates BA's ranking in the 2004 Handbook.)

Other than Pat Maholm (who might wind up being the best pitcher of the bunch), ever other top 10 pick was a top 4 prospect according to Baseball America in their 2004 Prospect Handbook.

Out of the top 10 prospects in the 2003 draft, Young is a question, Weeks shows flashes but hasn’t yet become an All Star type, Maholm looks solid, and Danks and Stewart join Young in TBD department. With that in mind, how high can we rank Decker, Dykstra, Darnell, etc.? I want to temper enthusiasm (although I have Jaff Decker in my top 5) for new additions to the system.