I might as well write what I've been thinking... (Top 25 Preview)

Okay, I’ve been quiet long enough. As is usually the case, I’m talking minor leagues…

Before I get into my feel-good rant (Is that an oxymoronic statement? Never mind, full-speed ahead!), I have to offer a caveat, I have not been paying as close attention to the national prospect scene as I used to… However, I am re-immersing myself and the more I do, the more certain I am of my convictions; first and foremost, that the Padres have solid-above average system (it is especially deep in hitters).

What do you call a 20 year-old SS in Low-A with the following line: .238/.340/.368 with 154 SO in 454 AB? No, “Matt Bush” is not the correct answer. The correct answer is John Sickles’ 5th rated Blue Jays prospect, Justin Jackson.

Okay, so you are not impressed… Try this one: I am a 22 year-old infielder (with questionable defense and likely move to a corner OF in my future) who hit .281/.357/.451 in High-A, who am I? I am John Sickles’ 2nd rated Reds prospect, Todd Frazier.

Those are just two example of “high” rated prospects with whom I am unimpressed… How is Justin Jackson appreciatively better than Drew Cumberland? And if, as expected, Frazier moves to the OF, how is he better than Chad Huffman? (Programming note: I have both Cumberland and Huffman in my top 10 – to be released any day at MadFriars.com).

The Padres could use some more high-upside pitchers in their system and they’re a little thin at shortstop and catcher, but they are chalk-full of patient, powerful hitters.

I am not going to give away my rankings but I am going to talk a little about tiers and methods…

Methods:

1. I listed & ranked each player at each position regardless of minor league level (note: the player had to have played professionally to be considered, i.e. you will not see Adis Portillo in this year’s ranking)
2. I rated each player 1 to 5 stars
3. I sorted players by stars and started ranking players overall
4. I reviewed and re-ranked

Now, on the verge of the release of my list, I embarrassed by the omission of a few players (James Darnell for one). Rankings are hard.

Tiers:

The Padres have 3 or 4 tiers of prospects… First, the top tier: with a few exceptions, most prospect rankings are going to have the following top 5 players (alphabetically): Kyle Blanks, Jaff Decker, Cedric Hunter, Mat Latos, and Kellen Kulbacki.

After that first tier (and I’m not going to give the whole list this time) there is a lot of parity from 6 to 16 with guys like Will Venable and Yefri Carvajal; guys with either lower ceilings or who have had less production.

The last tier is made up of guys who profile best as MLB relievers, utility players, low-tier starters, or guys who are just so far away we don’t know what to make of them yet…

Conclusions

The Padres are getting a lot of negative press (mostly deserved) for shopping Jake Peavy (one of the top 5-10 pitchers in baseball), for losing 96 games, for letting the face of the franchise, Trevor Hoffman, walk away unceremoniously… However, the future of the Padres is bright and the young talent on the big league club and in the minors is why.