Expectations, Performance, and 2009 Draft

Every once in a while a good/decent team performs significantly below expectations… For instance, in 2007 many experts thought the White Sox, Athletics, and Dodgers would challenge for their respective division titles. Instead, each of those teams finished fourth in their divisions and in this past draft, they picked 8, 12, and 15 respectively.

Right now the Padres are playing poorly. However, there’s really no reason why a team with Peavy, Young, Maddux, Bell, Hoffman, A. Gonzalez, and Giles shouldn’t be able to compete. With that mix of stars and solid veterans the front office should be able to fill in around the core. Unfortunately for Padres fans injuries, untimely miscues, under-performing regulars, and poor roster decisions have crippled the 2008 season.

On the bright side, the front office generally does a good job of finding talent and the farm is about to start harvesting the talent that they’ve been cultivating the last few years.

Right now the Padres are tied with the Washington Nationals for the second worst record in baseball. If you examine the collective records among the teams with worst records, you’ll notice some groupings: there are four teams 17+ games behind the Red Sox and an additional five teams that are 12+ games out. With the talent the Padres do have, they should be able to climb out of the cellar, but it is unlikely they’ll climb out of that bottom third.

I bring all this up to point out that the Padres will likely pick in the top 10 of next year’s amateur draft. Immediately following the draft Jonathan Mayo, of MiLB.com, posted an article about some of the top talent for next year’s draft.

I am already excited (I am such a draft geek)!