Future Padres - ZIPS Projections

Baseball Think Factory, is in the process of posting their “ZIPS” projections for teams. The following are projections for PRD-profiled players:

Before looking at the predicted stats, view the Baseball Think Factory disclaimer for their ZIPS predictions:

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Andy Marte: .234/.318/.420, 462 AB, 30 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 54 BB, 101 SO

PRD comments: This is actually is pretty good in a lot of ways. The ZIPS projections predicts only 108 hits in 462 at-bats, but it actually predict a 45.4% XBH-rate. Just 12 extra hits would raise that .234 batting average to a .260 batting average. I think Marte will hit .250-260, but the other numbers seem in line.

Kevin Kouzmanoff: .286/.342/.465 301 AB, 19 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 23 BB, 63 SO

PRD comments: These actually seem about right. Kouzmanoff seems to have more hitting ability, but doesn’t take as many walks as Marte or hit for as much power.

Joe Crede: .267/.317/.480 494 AB, 27 2B, 0 3B, 26 HR, 30 BB, 65 SO

PRD comments: I don’t believe ZIPS takes injuries into account. But since the back surgery that Crede is contemplating is supposedly minor, this might actually be conservative.

Josh Fields: .262/.336/.445 461 AB, 28 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 50 BB, 127 SO

PRD comments: I agree with this prediction for the most part as well. The power looks a little inflated. I have a hard time believing Josh will hit close to 50 extra-base hits in less than 500 at-bats. I don’t generally post stolen base data, but Fields stole 28 bases in AAA. ZIPS predicts Fields will steal 15 in his rookie campaign with 5 caught-stealing.

I have not profiled Morgan Ensberg or Aubrey Huff (but I should have), but each are possible 3B solutions and Huff would be a better LF solution than 3B solution.

Morgan Ensberg: .261/.373/.471 418 AB, 21 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 72 BB, 89 SO

PRD comments: ZIPS predicts only 418 at-bats for Ensberg because he was injured in 2006 and because his manager didn’t trust him in 2003 and 2004. Ensberg should actually replicate his 2005 level of ABs (526) in ’07. If he does that and maintains that .261/.373/.471 rate he should have 26+ doubles and 26+ home runs and obviously a few more walks and strikeouts.

Aubrey Huff: .281/.348/.474 513 AB, 26 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 48 BB, 97 SO

PRD comments: There is nothing remarkably surprising about these predictions. Other than 2003 (when Huff hit 47 2B and 25 HR), Huff hit 25-7 doubles every year since 2001 and 21-29 home runs every year since 2002.

Most people do not expect Miguel Cabrera to be available, but if he is…

Miguel Cabrera: .319/.388/.570 626 AB, 36 2B, 2 3B, 39 HR, 69 BB, 146 SO

PRD comments: Wow. I think I’m in love. He could walk a bit more and strikeout a bit less, and he’s probably a better LF than 3B, but he’s still an amazing talent.

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I will post updates to this article as Baseball Think Factory posts the ZIPS projections for other players of interest.