Future Padre - Barry Zito (?)

Barry Zito - In 2006 the Padres had seven starters compile 412 innings in 70 games. In those 70 starts those starters combined to go 25-22 (I don’t have the data on whether the Padres won or lost the other 23 games). They also combined to compile a 4.61 ERA while allowing 448 hits and 58 home runs while walking only 120 hitters and striking out only 220.

The Padres scored 731 runs in 2006 while allowing 679; both numbers are among the lowest in all of baseball (four teams scored fewer runs and only the Tigers allowed fewer runs). Thus conventional wisdom suggests the Padres should spend the lion’s share of their free agent dollars on hitting. However, in case you’ve been living under a rock, Barry Zito isn’t conventional.

Besides the guitar playing and philosophizing that evokes curiosity:

• Zito has never been on the DL.
• Zito will turn 29 in May 2007 and is at the beginning of his peak years (most free agents are past their peak or at the end of their peak years).
• Zito’s ordinary 1.40 WHIP is offset by a strong and consistent workload (he has thrown between 213 and 231 innings every year since 2001).

Let’s assume Peavy spends more time on the DL or at least misses a few starts again in 2007, let’s assume Chris Young is healthy (his injuries seemed more fluke-ish), let’s also assume than Clay Hensley remains healthy in ’07, and lastly let’s assume Zito avoids the DL for an 8th consecutive year… Assuming the above, the Padres would have 190ish, 200, 200, and 215 IP from their three remaining + Zito; that’s 805 IP. Every pitching staff in the National League had roughly 1430 to 1460 innings in 2006.

The more innings the Padres can get from their workhorses, the fresher (and more effective) the bullpen is. Kevin Towers has built a reputation from building quality ‘pens. Adding a workhorse starter to the already-effective mix would augment his ‘pen-building skills.

Now for the bad news… Barry Zito is a Scott Boras client and thus will likely sign with the highest bidder. In addition, the deep-pocketed Yankees and Mets both need pitching and should both be competitors for Zito’s services. Furthermore, Scott Boras has already floated a trial balloon suggesting 6 years $90 million dollars is a good “starting point” in negotiating for Zito’s services. In reality, I do think Zito will get $15+ million per year average, but I have trouble believing any team will go six years for any pitcher.

Back to the runs scored/runs allowed discussion. Adding Zito probably subtracts 25 runs from the Padres total. If the Padres again score 730ish runs (I think they’ll improve and score more) and have added Barry Zito, they should give up somewhere in the neighborhood of 650 runs. An 80-plus run differential, should translate to 89 to 95 wins.

If the Padres can get Barry Zito for 5 years and $75 million, they should do so.