Future Padre - Marcus Giles (?)

So third base is solved (Hello Kevin Kouzmanoff), but now second base is a new need.

Marcus Giles - Brian Giles’ kid-brother Marcus has been linked to the Padres as a potential second-base solution. Marc Normandin wrote an excellent piece about Marcus Giles for Baseball Prospectus that was posted back in September.

In the article, Normandin points out Giles’ struggles may be partially blamed by luck.

Marcus’ MLB statistics:

2001: .262/.338/.430 – 68 G, 244 AB, 10 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 28 BB, 37 SO
2002: .230/.315/.399 – 68 G, 213 AB, 10 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 25 BB, 41 SO
2003: .316/.390/.536 – 145 G, 551 AB, 49 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 59 BB, 80 SO
2004: .311/.378/.443 – 102 G, 379 AB, 22 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 36 BB, 70 SO
2005: .291/.365/.461 – 152 G, 577 AB, 45 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 64 BB, 108 SO
2006: .262/.341/.387 – 141 G, 550 AB, 32 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 62 BB, 105 SO

Normandin indicated that prior to 2006 PECOTA (BP’s forecast tool) predicted a .287/.366/.455 season from the younger Giles. The article breaks down several “batted ball” and notes, “…the only significant change is in his Batting Average on Balls in Play:”

Marcus’ BA/BIP

2004: .365
2005: .337
2006: .311

There may be some reason why Marcus’ BA/BIP dropped, but if so we would expect a similar change among his fly-ball rate, line-drive rate, or other similar statistic. The fact that those numbers did not vary more lead Marc to conclude, “…some new team might have themselves a second baseman who is still within his peak productivity, and may even get him at bargain-basement pricing, considering his ‘off’ year. Considering this winter's weak free agent class, adding a player of Giles' caliber would be a serious upgrade in a market that doesn't offer very many of those.”

Looking at Marcus’ raw counting stats led me to believe a similar line to what PECOTA projected for Marcus in 2006 with possibly slightly less batting average.

The Giles brothers have talked openly about their desire to play together. Most statistical researchers discount psychology as an element of performance. I think putting the Giles brothers together would be good for each of their performances.