Future Padre - Marcus Giles (?)

So third base is solved (Hello Kevin Kouzmanoff), but now second base is a new need.

Marcus Giles - Brian Giles’ kid-brother Marcus has been linked to the Padres as a potential second-base solution. Marc Normandin wrote an excellent piece about Marcus Giles for Baseball Prospectus that was posted back in September.

In the article, Normandin points out Giles’ struggles may be partially blamed by luck.

Marcus’ MLB statistics:

2001: .262/.338/.430 – 68 G, 244 AB, 10 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 28 BB, 37 SO
2002: .230/.315/.399 – 68 G, 213 AB, 10 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 25 BB, 41 SO
2003: .316/.390/.536 – 145 G, 551 AB, 49 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 59 BB, 80 SO
2004: .311/.378/.443 – 102 G, 379 AB, 22 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 36 BB, 70 SO
2005: .291/.365/.461 – 152 G, 577 AB, 45 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 64 BB, 108 SO
2006: .262/.341/.387 – 141 G, 550 AB, 32 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 62 BB, 105 SO

Normandin indicated that prior to 2006 PECOTA (BP’s forecast tool) predicted a .287/.366/.455 season from the younger Giles. The article breaks down several “batted ball” and notes, “…the only significant change is in his Batting Average on Balls in Play:”

Marcus’ BA/BIP

2004: .365
2005: .337
2006: .311

There may be some reason why Marcus’ BA/BIP dropped, but if so we would expect a similar change among his fly-ball rate, line-drive rate, or other similar statistic. The fact that those numbers did not vary more lead Marc to conclude, “…some new team might have themselves a second baseman who is still within his peak productivity, and may even get him at bargain-basement pricing, considering his ‘off’ year. Considering this winter's weak free agent class, adding a player of Giles' caliber would be a serious upgrade in a market that doesn't offer very many of those.”

Looking at Marcus’ raw counting stats led me to believe a similar line to what PECOTA projected for Marcus in 2006 with possibly slightly less batting average.

The Giles brothers have talked openly about their desire to play together. Most statistical researchers discount psychology as an element of performance. I think putting the Giles brothers together would be good for each of their performances.

Kouzmanoff/Barfield Trade

The Padres traded Josh Barfield for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andrew Brown on Wednesday.

BaseballThinkFactory.com’s ZIPS projects the following for the two:

2007 ZiPS Projections
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Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Barfield 499 73 135 23 2 12 62 40 107 10 .271 .326 .397
Kouzmanoff 301 39 84 17 1 11 41 22 67 3 .279 .334 .452

If we project Kouzmanoff’s “counting stats” out for 500 at-bats, we get: .279/.334/.452 with 28 2B & 18 HR… While that wouldn’t be a huge upgrade over Barfield. However replacing Barfield’s 2006 contributions.(280/.318/.423) shouldn’t be that hard.

Obviously the deal solves third base but opens second base up for discussion. The Padres are rumored to be after Marcus Giles and still after Akinori Iwamura (only now as a 2B rather than a 3B).

Iwamura (as non-scientifically, but rationally predicted by Jeff Sackman):

.292/.348/.446 with 23 doubles and 19 home runs

Giles, who hit .260/.330/.430 in 2006 might have been the victim of a statistical fluke. Mark Normandin suggests that a slight correction to career rates would led to a .292/.373/.421 line.

More later…

Baker a Viable Candidate? Padres to Hire Other?

I’ve taken a lot of grief for suggesting that Dusty Baker is not a bad managerial candidate.

Let’s back up.

During last season I thought it was unwise for the Chicago to retain Dusty when it so obvious they needed to make a change. Dusty had clearly “lost” his team. And finding someone who could be an interim manager would also allow the Cubs to give a qualified coach a trial run.

Fast-forward… When Dusty was fired, at least one talking head suggested the Padres would be an ideal new home for Dusty if the Padres were actually subtly showing Bruce Bochy the door. I nearly flipped.

Then when Bochy did actually take the Giants managerial job and Bud Black, Trey Hillman, and other names came out, I forgot all about Dusty Baker. …Until, that is, we found out Baker actually was a managerial candidate.

Now let’s talk about another related subject. I haven’t wanted to talk about it. I haven’t wanted the pity-party – I still don’t. But I’ve been out of work for quite awhile now. I have fourth interview today (Wednesday) and I am expecting an offer from this company. Obviously I’ve done several rounds of interviews with several companies… I can tell from experience, when good interviewers are asking questions they effectively hide what kind of answers they want.

So if Kevin Towers is asking Baker about his past, his vision for the future, how he intends to mold his team (whether it’s the Padres or another team), how to handle pitchers, etc. Tower won’t ask, “So, Dusty, what do you think about pitch counts?” The question reveals the desired answer.

Now, if Dusty Baker can honestly show/demonstrate how he can align his managing philosophies with what the Padres want to do, then I would not object to having a manager with Baker’s motivation/communication skills.

Having said that, I still prefer Trey Hillman.

We know that Towers interviewed all six candidates (Baker, Hillman, Black, Ron Wotus, Tim Wallach, and Jose Oquendo) and that John Moores and Sandy Alderson met with Hillman in Japan. Now we learn that Black had a second interview as well. And that, “Alderson said he didn't have plans to meet with any of the other candidates, ‘but that could change in the morning.’"

I think we can conclude that Alderson expects to hire either Black or Hillman.

Future Padres - ZIPS Projections

Baseball Think Factory, is in the process of posting their “ZIPS” projections for teams. The following are projections for PRD-profiled players:

Before looking at the predicted stats, view the Baseball Think Factory disclaimer for their ZIPS predictions:

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Andy Marte: .234/.318/.420, 462 AB, 30 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 54 BB, 101 SO

PRD comments: This is actually is pretty good in a lot of ways. The ZIPS projections predicts only 108 hits in 462 at-bats, but it actually predict a 45.4% XBH-rate. Just 12 extra hits would raise that .234 batting average to a .260 batting average. I think Marte will hit .250-260, but the other numbers seem in line.

Kevin Kouzmanoff: .286/.342/.465 301 AB, 19 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 23 BB, 63 SO

PRD comments: These actually seem about right. Kouzmanoff seems to have more hitting ability, but doesn’t take as many walks as Marte or hit for as much power.

Joe Crede: .267/.317/.480 494 AB, 27 2B, 0 3B, 26 HR, 30 BB, 65 SO

PRD comments: I don’t believe ZIPS takes injuries into account. But since the back surgery that Crede is contemplating is supposedly minor, this might actually be conservative.

Josh Fields: .262/.336/.445 461 AB, 28 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 50 BB, 127 SO

PRD comments: I agree with this prediction for the most part as well. The power looks a little inflated. I have a hard time believing Josh will hit close to 50 extra-base hits in less than 500 at-bats. I don’t generally post stolen base data, but Fields stole 28 bases in AAA. ZIPS predicts Fields will steal 15 in his rookie campaign with 5 caught-stealing.

I have not profiled Morgan Ensberg or Aubrey Huff (but I should have), but each are possible 3B solutions and Huff would be a better LF solution than 3B solution.

Morgan Ensberg: .261/.373/.471 418 AB, 21 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 72 BB, 89 SO

PRD comments: ZIPS predicts only 418 at-bats for Ensberg because he was injured in 2006 and because his manager didn’t trust him in 2003 and 2004. Ensberg should actually replicate his 2005 level of ABs (526) in ’07. If he does that and maintains that .261/.373/.471 rate he should have 26+ doubles and 26+ home runs and obviously a few more walks and strikeouts.

Aubrey Huff: .281/.348/.474 513 AB, 26 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 48 BB, 97 SO

PRD comments: There is nothing remarkably surprising about these predictions. Other than 2003 (when Huff hit 47 2B and 25 HR), Huff hit 25-7 doubles every year since 2001 and 21-29 home runs every year since 2002.

Most people do not expect Miguel Cabrera to be available, but if he is…

Miguel Cabrera: .319/.388/.570 626 AB, 36 2B, 2 3B, 39 HR, 69 BB, 146 SO

PRD comments: Wow. I think I’m in love. He could walk a bit more and strikeout a bit less, and he’s probably a better LF than 3B, but he’s still an amazing talent.

***

I will post updates to this article as Baseball Think Factory posts the ZIPS projections for other players of interest.

Future Padre - Barry Zito (?)

Barry Zito - In 2006 the Padres had seven starters compile 412 innings in 70 games. In those 70 starts those starters combined to go 25-22 (I don’t have the data on whether the Padres won or lost the other 23 games). They also combined to compile a 4.61 ERA while allowing 448 hits and 58 home runs while walking only 120 hitters and striking out only 220.

The Padres scored 731 runs in 2006 while allowing 679; both numbers are among the lowest in all of baseball (four teams scored fewer runs and only the Tigers allowed fewer runs). Thus conventional wisdom suggests the Padres should spend the lion’s share of their free agent dollars on hitting. However, in case you’ve been living under a rock, Barry Zito isn’t conventional.

Besides the guitar playing and philosophizing that evokes curiosity:

• Zito has never been on the DL.
• Zito will turn 29 in May 2007 and is at the beginning of his peak years (most free agents are past their peak or at the end of their peak years).
• Zito’s ordinary 1.40 WHIP is offset by a strong and consistent workload (he has thrown between 213 and 231 innings every year since 2001).

Let’s assume Peavy spends more time on the DL or at least misses a few starts again in 2007, let’s assume Chris Young is healthy (his injuries seemed more fluke-ish), let’s also assume than Clay Hensley remains healthy in ’07, and lastly let’s assume Zito avoids the DL for an 8th consecutive year… Assuming the above, the Padres would have 190ish, 200, 200, and 215 IP from their three remaining + Zito; that’s 805 IP. Every pitching staff in the National League had roughly 1430 to 1460 innings in 2006.

The more innings the Padres can get from their workhorses, the fresher (and more effective) the bullpen is. Kevin Towers has built a reputation from building quality ‘pens. Adding a workhorse starter to the already-effective mix would augment his ‘pen-building skills.

Now for the bad news… Barry Zito is a Scott Boras client and thus will likely sign with the highest bidder. In addition, the deep-pocketed Yankees and Mets both need pitching and should both be competitors for Zito’s services. Furthermore, Scott Boras has already floated a trial balloon suggesting 6 years $90 million dollars is a good “starting point” in negotiating for Zito’s services. In reality, I do think Zito will get $15+ million per year average, but I have trouble believing any team will go six years for any pitcher.

Back to the runs scored/runs allowed discussion. Adding Zito probably subtracts 25 runs from the Padres total. If the Padres again score 730ish runs (I think they’ll improve and score more) and have added Barry Zito, they should give up somewhere in the neighborhood of 650 runs. An 80-plus run differential, should translate to 89 to 95 wins.

If the Padres can get Barry Zito for 5 years and $75 million, they should do so.

MLBTradeRumors.com's Free Agent Predictions

MLBTradeRumors.com (which has been a huge asset for me in a lot of my research) has posted their Top 50 free agents with predictions for their 2007 teams.

Here are a few quotes regarding players of interest to Padre fans:

3. Aramis Ramirez - Cubs. Sportswriters like to spew silly things about how Ramirez didn't "carry the team" when Derrek Lee was out and how he's lazy. Somehow I doubt these minor, partly made-up issues are on Jim Hendry's mind as he negotiates with the 28 year-old third baseman. The contract could run as long as six years.

4. Barry Zito - Padres. We know the Padres aren't particular fond of Scott Boras, but who really is? He might be the best bet for a long-term contract for a pitcher, and the Padres have over $30MM to play with this winter. Peavy/Young/Zito/Hensley looks mighty solid to me.

16. Akinori Iwamura - Indians. The Phillies and Padres will be in hard on him as well. Iwamura could be one of the best bargains of the offseason. He could play mainly second base for the Tribe but his assistance could be needed on the left side of the infield.

21. Moises Alou - Orioles. Baltimore is a place where Mo can shift between left field and DH to preserve his knees. He led all free agents in slugging percentage but will have a hard time staying on the field.

29. Luis Gonzalez - Giants. Gonzo is the godfather of Bruce Bochy's childen or something like that, so it seems like a good fit. OK, I made that up. But he's old and the Giants love that attribute in a player. Todd Linden may be worth a shot in right but the Giants need some kind of stability in left.

[PRD note: he has the Giants signing both Bonds and Gonzo… that won’t happen but I agree with him on Bonds.]

30. Juan Pierre - Dodgers. There aren't that many center fielders out there, and I don't see Colletti entering '07 with some sort of Repko/Kemp/Drew thing in center. Pierre just seems like a Colletti-type signing to me.

33. Dave Roberts - Rockies. The Rox are going to find a center fielder one way or another. If they miss out on Gary Matthews Jr. Roberts looks like the guy. He's a helpful player but may have a hard time playing above average CF defense and staying healthy.

[PRD note: I just posted the same conclusion over in a Ducksnorts.com discussion thread (#13).]

39. Mark Mulder - A's. Mulder still has friends on the A's and could be a bargain for Billy Beane on an incentive-based deal. The Orioles have been mentioned as well, but are probably the third choice after the A's and Cards.

46. Aubrey Huff - Padres. Some concerned Pads fans think the team could try Russell Branyan as the starting 3B. I think Kevin Towers will go after some kind of "name" player, with Huff as a decent option. Remember, the Padres have quite a bit of money to burn.

[PRD note: I haven’t really considered Huff, but this does make quite a bit of sense even if Huff isn’t plus defender at 3B.]

48. Ryan Klesko - Tigers. In Klesko we have a patient left-handed slugger on the cheap who claims he's finally healthy. Why not throw him a few mil to find out? Obviously the Tigers would do more than just sign Klesko; I think they'll go the trade route this winter.

[PRD note: Klesko will follow the money so he’ll go to Detroit if they want him. But he’s already complained about Petco’s dimensions, how would he like Comerica’s?]

Future Padre - Updates

Alfonso Soriano supposedly wants a Carlos Beltran-like 7 year, $119 million contract. The Washington Post says, “It's unlikely the Orioles will be in the running for Soriano if he doesn't back off those demands.” At an average of $17m per season for 7 years it’ll be interesting to see who stays “in the running.”

The Cubs want Aramis Ramirez back. Also, he is reportedly the number 1 target of both Los Angeles teams… On an aside, it is amazing how quickly Angels owner Art Moreno made the Angles the dominant team in the Los Angeles area.

Gary Sheffield impending move to a new team is nearly complete. Supposedly Brian Cashman has a deal in place with one of following clubs: Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Indians, Padres, Giants, Braves, and Astros. "Sheffield reportedly will complain publicly if dealt, but over the years, the right fielder has said he would welcome a return to San Diego," according to the San Diego Union Tribune.

The Indians’ Kevin Kouzmanoff has been playing first base in the Arizona Fall League. If Indians’ brass do not think Kouzmanoff can handle the hot corner, but want to keep his bat in their lineup at first base, then this move diminishes the likelihood that either he or Andy Marte will be traded.