Klesko

Bob Schlegel of MLB.com has an article posted Thursday about Ryan Klesko, Ryan’s health, and Ryan’s importance to the Padres’ chances this year. A while back (while thinking about putting my website back together) I wrote this and sent it to a friend.

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Klesko's BA splits were essentially nil, his OBP split was .389 at home and .407 on the road. The big difference was his slugging split: .420 vs. .479...

But even that doesn't bother me too much (we know Petco is hard on lefties - well, we're pretty certain, this season should be a better barometer). What is encouraging is that his OPS totals by month are:

April - .744
May - .644
June - .698
July - .874
August - .845
Sept. - 1.077
TOTAL = .847

In his last three months he hit 8, 7, & 7 2Bs to go with 3, 2, & 3 HR respectively. With last year's 2nd half totals projected over the whole season it would work out 13 HR & 36 2B. He only had 403 ABs last season (I projected his 2nd half totals in 249 AB into his season total of 403 AB). If he keeps up his power 'rates' from the send half of last year and gets 550 ABs, he projects to have 18 HR & 49 2B.

That's not huge numbers, but I'd take it and expect to finish at or near the top of the standings.

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Let me go a bit further…

Ryan’s career numbers are .283/.373/.515. Last season he hit .291/.399/.448. From 1999 through last year, he has had only one season where he failed to post a batting average above .280 and post on-base averages above .380 (in Ryan’s injury-shorted 2003 he hit .252/.354/.456). The last two years Ryan failed to post slugging “percentages” above .510. Before 2003, Ryan’s last sub-.510 slugging year was 1998.

If Ryan’s shoulder really is healthy, it would be reasonable to expect a .285/.390/.495 season. That is not a scientific projection. But if we allow for some regression (from career and/or recent plateau numbers) and also project some rebound towards career norms, I think its fairly reasonable to expect those kind of numbers.

By the way, Ryan posted the following yearly OPS totals:

1998 .832 @ 27 years old
1999 .908 @ 28
2000 .909 @ 29
2001 .923 @ 30
2002 .925 @ 31
2003 .810 @ 32
2004 .847 @ 33

His career OPS is .888

In case you’re feeling lazy and don’t want to do the math, I projected a .885 OPS for Ryan in 2005. I think that’s a pretty safe projection.