Stauffer 3rd?

Monday I criticized Padres GM Kevin Towers for the Dave Roberts deal. If I am willing to shovel criticism around, I need to be equally willing to offer praise.

I was listening to Coach John Kentera on the Mighty 1090 while I was driving home from work Tuesday night. A listener called in asking whom the Padres were going to use as their fifth starter. Coach Kentera replied that the Padres planned on using Darrell May as the fifth starter with Justin Germano and Tim Stauffer as the #1 and #2 options behind May or if anyone got hurt.

First off, I do not know for certain that Kentera’s depth chart is accurate. But I have heard other reports that echo this and as the caller asked her question I mentally answered it the same way he did.

Additionally, let me say I am probably Tim Stauffer’s biggest fan. That said, I LOVE that he’s 3rd on that depth chart.

Tim Stauffer is 22 years old. He will turn 23 on June 2nd this year, thus his “playing age” is 23 (a player’s “playing age” is their age on July 1st – I think – I know the date is in July).

Now let’s assume the Padres get lucky and all 5 starters pitch brilliantly and stay healthy all the way to playoffs and we never need Germano or Stauffer to make a spot-start. Then, next year-2006, we’ll have a 24-year-old potential rotation mainstay beginning his MLB service clock (or even if he makes a September appearance, Stauffer will still be a year-1 guy). The Padres will hold Tim’s rights through 29 or maybe even 30. Players typically peak at 27-8 years old.

It is, admittedly, unlikely that all of our starters will avoid trips to the Disabled List. But let’s not get in a hurry to start Stauffer’s MLB service clock. And if we only need one guy to make a spot-start, use Germano. His service clock has already started and he is already on the Padres 40 man roster.

Let’s look at this from a different angle.

I was looking at Oakland’s pitching staff. Ken Macha, Oakland’s manager, was quoted on MLB.com (I’ll paraphrase) that the ideal rotation for Oakland is: Zito, Harden, Haren, Blanton, and Meyer. Barry Zito is 27 years old. Second year pitcher, Danny Haren is 24. Fellow second-year guy, Joe Blanton is also 24. Rookie-to-be Dan Meyer is 23. Third-year future ace Rich Harden is the youngest of the bunch, also 23.

While Oakland didn’t error in bringing Rich up when they did; he was clearly ready. Doing so cost them the rights to what will likely be his best years. Rich, who has a November birthday, will be free-agent eligible right around his 27th or 28th birthday (whether Harden’s half year in 2002 will count as full year will not be determined until that date is closer).

I don’t want to get your hopes up. Baseball Prospectus says Harden will be one of the 10 best pitchers in the AL this year, they say Tim Stauffer profiles as a, “back of the rotation guy” with “room for growth.”

I think this is pretty conservative. I see Stauffer profiling quite nicely as a #3. But next year we should expect to see the following rotation: Peavy, Williams, Eaton, Lawrence, Stauffer. Baseball America, looking further out at the prospects, projects the 2008 rotation as: Peavy, Eaton, Travis Chick, Stauffer, and Lawrence. Sounds good to me.

Tim Stauffer, third on the depth chart? Perfect!