2005 Draft Preview

The more you read my stuff, the more you realize how much I love watching what’s coming. I still plan on breaking down games like I did two years ago, But you will also see the occasional ‘State of the Organization’ write-up such as this one. I have started to look at the Padres’ options for this year’s draft, and I’m excited - for three reasons.

First of all, I’m excited that we have Grady Fuson on our side. Baseball America, in their 2005 edition of the “Prospect Handbook,” graded our recent drafts as a “D” in 2003, “B+” in 2002 and 2001, and a “C” in 2000 (the 2004 draft won’t get a grade until next year). Adding Fuson to an already competent draft management staff should help significantly.

The second reason I’m excited, unlike last year, we still have our second round pick as well as a first round supplemental pick thanks to Boston signing David Wells. We also have Boston’s second round pick; in total we have 5 top-100 picks (well 4, we also have #102).

Thirdly, and maybe most important of all, this is a DEEP & talented draft. Last year Matt Bush, the #1 selection overall, was generally regarded as a top-10 talent, but he wasn’t (still isn’t) the caliber of some of the other top picks. Bush would quite possibly miss the top 20 in this draft. Bush is currently rated the #6 Padres prospect according to Baseball America.

Breaking it down – we have following top selections:

First round pick: #18 overall
First round Supplemental pick #35 (due to Boston signing Wells)
Second round pick #69 (the first pick in the second round is #52)*
Second round pick #78 (from Boston)
Third round pick #102

* Arizona has a conditional supplemental pick for not signing Stephen Drew (#50) and Anaheim has a conditional supplemental pick for not signing Jered Weaver (#51). If either player signs with their respective team one or both of those conditional supplemental picks could go away.

Now lets look a few players who have caught my eye for those selections (all draft projections are from Baseball America).

Stephen Head, 1B, Ole Miss. University – Generally regarded as having one of the better bats in the draft, called “sweet-swinging” by Baseball America, Stephen Head projects to go mid-first.

Henry Sanchez 1B, Mission Bay High, San Diego – Matt Bush’s teammate from last year reportedly swings a huge bat. His downside is that he is also, well… huge. According to Baseball America Sanchez is 6’3” 260 lbs. Prince Fielder (#7 overall in 2002) has shown that a body designed for “International Male” is not a requirement to be an effective hitter. Sanchez projects to be a late first round selection.

Ryan Braun, 3B, University of Miami – Quoting an AL scouting director, Baseball America wrote that, “Braun definitely comes with the bat potential." Ryan has absolutely crushed the ball so far this season. He should have the athleticism to play 3B; he played SS for Miami as a freshman and won “Freshman of Year.” In 22 games so far this season Ryan hit .457/.505/.815 with 8 2B & 7 HR. I e-mailed Will Kimmey of Baseball America about Braun and the possibility of him going in the first round. Will replied that it was certainly a realistic possibility and that, “He's better than Khalil Greene,” pointing out that Khalil was a first-round selection.

There are a lot of other players who will deserve consideration in and around where the Padres have their top 3 picks. These are just three names that have caught my attention as realistic picks for the Padres.

One last piece of analysis: while the Padres will probably take the top guy available on their draft board when they pick, when I look at the Padres’ organization, I see specific organizational needs for bats, especially at LF/RF 1B & 3B.