PRD Interviews John Sickels

John Sickels is regarded in the Minor League Baseball community as one of the foremost experts and writes and publishes The Baseball Prospect Book annually. You can order that book here and you can see John's daily analysis at his blog, here.

PadresRunDown: The Padres have a reputation for being college-focused in their draft choices (if you ask me, it’s an over-stated reputation – they drafted Kyler Burke, Drew Cumberland, and Jaff Decker in the supplemental round of each of the last three drafts). What did you think when the Padres took three toolsy high schoolers in the first four rounds?

John Sickels: Well, you’re right, they’ve done this before, though Decker in particular was extremely polished for a high school hitter. My initial thought was that they were adopting a somewhat different approach this year, relying less on college guys with good numbers, though they picked some of those in later rounds. In general I think a “mixed” approach is best, so I think this will pay dividends for them in the long run.

PRD: Donovan Tate has remarkable athleticism – no one refutes that – but some people question his hitting ability. What’s your take on his hitting tools/skills?

JS: Well, hitting mechanics are something that I have never had a very good feel for. I do better with pitching, lol. Tate’s athleticism is outstanding and obvious, but some people who know a lot more about hitting than I do say he has issues with his swing being too pull-oriented, and he perhaps has problems with his strike zone judgment too, though his tools are so good that he could/should be able to overcome this. I doubt the Padres would have drafted him if they felt his hitting flaws were unfixable. At this point I think we just have to wait and see what happens once he gets into pro ball. One clue may be his initial assignment: do they stick him in the Arizona League or in the Northwest League? Assuming he signs early enough to play this year, of course.

PRD: Do you expect the Padres to get Tate signed?

JS: Yes. They know what he wants. It may go down to the wire, but he’ll sign.

PRD: I agree, they must have had lots of discussions with Donovan to determine his interest in signing, however Everett Williams wasn’t expected to be there at pick 52 and reportedly has a 7-figure signing bonus expectation. To me, he looks like the most likely to not sign. What’s your take on this pick and Williams’ signability?

JS: You don’t expend a second round pick unless you have a good read on his signability. Of course, it doesn’t always work out, and I know Williams has a high price tag. On the other hand, he didn’t commit to the University of Texas until two months before the draft. . .normally a kid with genuine signability issues will make a strong college commitment much sooner than that. My guess is that he’ll sign, but like Tate, it will go down to the wire. As for Williams as a player, his tools are a notch below Tate’s, but Williams is still quite toolsy, and his bat is more polished than Tate’s according to the reports I’ve seen. His power potential in particular is very impressive.

PRD: Paul DePodesta, in his ‘blog, said, “[P]eople normally associate high school picks with athleticism and upside and college picks with polish and low ceiling. That isn't always the case. We've taken high schoolers at times that we thought had some polish and we've taken some college players we thought were raw and athletic.

Noting that, and more importantly the scouting reports we have on 3rd round pick, Jerry Sullivan would it be fair to say that he is more of a raw-upside guy than your typical “polished” collegiate right-hander?

JS: Oh, I don’t know about that. . .he pitched pretty well in college and did well in the Cape Cod League. The “raw college arm” guys usually don’t have great numbers, but Sullivan went 8-3, 3.12 with a 116/27 K/BB in 98 innings. That’s pretty damn good performance. I think he’s a good balance between performance and projection, and I like him in the third round.

PRD: Keyvius Sampson’s fall to the fourth round looks like a signability issue, however this article implys an eagerness to sign and begin a professional career. What’s your take on Sampson and do you think he’ll sign quickly?

JS: I like Sampson a lot and my guess is that he’ll sign. After the first night of the draft, there was a flurry of phone calls between teams and “player representatives” for guys who hadn’t been drafted yet but who were expected to be early picks, to gauge their signability on the second day. If Sampson wasn’t willing to sign, I very much doubt the Padres would have pulled the trigger on him in the fourth round. My take on him: very live arm, very good athlete, good makeup, needs some polish on his secondary stuff. I thought he was a second round talent, so getting him in the fourth is a nice pickup. Assuming he signs.

PRD: In your National League West Draft Impressions article, you say, “If the Padres can get everyone signed, this is a very strong class.” And in January’s Top 20 Padres Prospects article, you said, “Overall this system needs more impact talent, especially on the pitching side, but it is not as bad as its reputation, and I kept finding guys that I didn’t want to leave out.” Any quick and dirty thoughts on what this draft (adding the three first-round talent high schoolers: Tate, Williams, and Sampson) means to the Padre organization?

JS: Well I think it does exactly what it needed to do: it adds impact talent to a system that already had quite a few “pretty good” prospects. We’ll have to see what it looks like in five years of course, the minimum by which you can truly judge the success or failure of a draft, but on paper at least this draft addresses the strengths of the system without compromising the principle of “pick best player available.”

PRD: Lastly, we didn’t discuss any of the later selections. Anything there that jumps out at you?

JS: Mikes Mikolas in the seventh round out of Nova Southeastern could be a sleeper. Some “traditional Padre” picks to watch are Nate Freiman, 1B out of Duke in the eighth round, and Chris Fetter, RHP out of Michigan in the ninth. They don’t excite scouts but both have good performance records. Another guy I think is interesting is the 11th round pick, Drew Madrigal out of Mt. San Jacinto JC. He has a plus fastball and a good curve, and I think JC talent is often overlooked.

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Very nice John, and thanks again for taking time out of your busy schedule to do this.