Padres Top 10 Discussion

I talked to Geoff Young on Thursday and we were discussing the draft (surprise-surprise), Padres minor league depth, and certain players… The overall discussion led to a question, “Which Padres prospects deserve to be considered as top 10 prospects?”

I started listing players who were in last year’s top 10, some new additions, and some breakout candidates for the list and the conversation and mental review after the discussion led to this post… Thanks Geoff!

(listed alphabetically)

Kyle Blanks

Blanks isn’t setting the world on fire by hitting .266/.383/.473 but he does have 20 XBH (8 2B, 1 3B, and 11 HR) while splitting duty between 1B and learning LF. His proximity to the Majors and his career numbers put him near the top of the Padre prospect rankings.

Drew Cumberland

There may be no player on this list more important to the Padres’ system. Cumberland is every bit the athlete that prognosticators say the system lacks. On top of that he plays SS. The biggest knock on Cumberland is that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Even this year he’s missed some time… When he has been healthy, he’s hit well (with the expected lack of power) .304/.378/.392 and going 9-0 in stolen bases attempts. Cumberland lacks the talent to be a top-5 pick, but is almost certainly a top 10 prospect.

James Darnell

Darnell is considered a 5-tool 3B talent. He’s probably too advanced of a hitter to be in Low-A but he’s blocked by fellow discussion listee, Logan Forsythe. Darnell is hitting .294/.453/.497 with 22 of his 55 hits going for extra bases (13 2B, 2 3B, and 7 HR). Lots of minor league experts have Darnell on their watch lists and Baseball America ranked him in the Padres’ top 10 last off-season.

Jaff Decker

Jaff Decker was rated by Baseball America as the #3 Padres prospect going into this season. And so far he’s done nothing to lower expectations. Despite missing time recovering from a concussion Decker is hitting .283/.455/.543 with 9 doubles and 8 home runs on 127 AB so far this season. He’s a near-lock to remain in the top 5.

Allan Dykstra

Grady Fuson described last year’s top pick as having “Petco-proof power.” However, his numbers this year are depressing (.203/.365/.346). In the offseason, the Padres completely re-vamped his swing so he was able to get to inside pitches (in college he cheated away because no one challenged him inside – with professionals using wood bats he needed to fix the swing). He should be in the discussion for top 10 status, but only on the merit of his abilities, not his production.

Jonathon Galvez

Galvez is physical beast. He’s listed at 6’2” 175, but from what I’ve heard, he’s already thicker than 175 and most suspect he’ll move to 3B or OF. He hit .272/.449/.370 last year in the DSL (which is more impressive than it sounds). He should be playing in the AZL this year. Galvez just turned 18 in January, so he’ll be among the younger players playing professional baseball in the States. The Padres are high on Galvez and say his bat will be special.

Logan Forsythe

Forsythe doesn’t project to have Darnell’s power or speed, but he can hit, he can control the strike zone, and he can play defense (he does have power he just doesn’t project to have as much as Darnell). In Logan’s favor, the Padres drafted him ahead of Darnell, put him at the higher level, and he’s easily having at least the success Darnell is having – but at a higher level. Forsythe is hitting .328/.477/.545 with 13 2B, 3 3B, and 8 HR.

Cedric Hunter

Coming out of high school Cedric Hunter was described as a tweener, not enough defense to handle CF and not enough power to handle a corner-OF spot. The “lack of defense” complaint was not a current one, but what people projected him to be. What he is, is a CF who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. He also happens to be one of the toughest hitters to strike out in the minors. Last year he K’d barely more than 8% of his chances.

Cedric is not hitting like he has in previous seasons but will probably slowly climb back to normal .300+ average. Assuming Tate and Williams both sign, Hunter will need to step up his game but he should be a lock to remain on the Padres top 10.

Kellen Kulbacki

Kellen shouldn’t fall off this list, but I can completely understand why someone might take him off their top 10… Kellen was a beast in college. His OPS numbers for his three years are: .944, 1.511, and 1.323. Then he posted an .873 in Short-Season Eugene in 2007. In 2008 he posted a .940 OPS… So far this season he’s hitting below the “Mendoza” line and has yet to hit his first HR. He injured his shoulder at the end of last season and is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. So a return to form is likely – but between the injury and the infusion of additional talent, Kulbacki is unlikely to be a top 5 prospect – though his top 10 status should be secure.

Mat Latos

Latos is only 48 innings into the 2009 campaign (he only pitched 56 innings in ’08) and is looking like one of the best pitchers in all the minors (combined 0.56 ERA with 23 H allowed, 3 combined ER, 11 BB and 49 SO). Assuming the Padres sign Donovan Tate, only Tate and Blanks can challenge Latos for the top Padre prospect ranking.

Adys Portillo

As good as Latos is, Portillo might be better. Reportedly he blew away other top prospects in organizational workouts. When the Padres signed the right-hander out of Venezuela he had a 91 mph fastball – he’s now hitting 95. He is only now going to start playing professional games that count. He should climb this list fast. BA rated the 17 year-old RHP #5 going into the season.

Keyvius Sampson

Sampson might be a long-shot to make the top 10 out of this list, but keep in mind, the right hander throws 93-96 and was as dominant as a high school pitcher could be:

69 IP, 14 BB, 123 SO (I can’t find the statistic but he allowed 35ish hits)

Assuming the Padres sign Sampson quickly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to watch Sampson (a first-round talent) dominate at lower levels.

Nick Schmidt

Nick is often reviled simply because he is not Rick Porcello. What he is however, is a LHP who throws an 88-91 fastball and touches 93 and gets results. He was a “Friday Starter” (staff ace) for all three years in college. Once drafted he suffered an elbow injury and is now coming back from Tommy John surgery. Schmidt profiles as a #3 starter. He is having solid success in Low-A but because of his age (thanks to the lost 2008 season) he’s old for his league (23). That combined with the depth on this list make it likely Schmidt will be one of the first pruned from this list to get it to 10.

Eric Sogard

Sogard is someone that I had rated as the #7 Padre prospect until I heard questions about his defense. I had previously thought his defense was average or better… Now, again, I’m hearing his defense is not a big concern and I kick myself for allowing those rumors/questions to affect my ranking. I think Sogard is Pedroia-lite and the Padres’ heir-apparent at second base.

Donovan Tate

Baseball America’s Jim Callis wrote,

San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg is already the favorite to rank No. 1 on next year's Top 100. Assuming they sign, there are two more college players (North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley, Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson), two independent league righthanders (Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers) and five high schoolers (outfielder Donavan Tate, lefthanders Tyler Matzek and Matthew Purke and righthanders Jacob Turner and Zack Wheeler) who are all but locks to make the [top 100] list.

You’re not going to rate as a top 100 prospect and not find your way onto your team’s top 10. Tate would a lock to be a top 2-3 prospect if not #1 overall – assuming the Padres sign him (I’ll be surprised if they do not).

Everett Williams

Everett Williams does not have Donovan Tate’s upside, but much the way Elijah Dukes dominated in the Rays minor league system while other outfielders got all the hype, Everett could outproduce Tate. He doesnt come with first round cachet, but he’s a legitimate 5-tool talent and it was surprising that he was available in the second round. It will be interesting to see how the Padres develop Tate and Williams side-by-side.

There are 16 players on this list. Who did I miss? Who else should be considered in the Padres top 10 discussion, and who would you rank as the Padres top 10 (you can assume either all or none of the ’09 draftees sign – but don’t pick and choose)?

Please opine!