Padres' Draft Scenarios

There are several scenarios out there for the Padres at three.

Here are my thoughts on which players the Padres could take, and possible (logical) explanations on how the Padres could come to these decisions.

Donovan Tate: Grady Fuson supposedly drools over Tate’s tools and owner-in-waiting, Jeff Moorad has a history of going over-slot to get a highly rated player (see Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Max Scherzer). If Seattle takes Ackley at 2 (as expected) this is a likely pick.

Aaron Crow: Tate is not without a few questions: 1, is he willing/ready to give up football (Tate is signed to play football and baseball at UNC), and 2, people don’t question Tate’s power, defense, arm, or speed – but there are some questions on whether he’ll hit enough. If the Padres feel these risks are not worth Tate’s considerable price tag, they may go with Aaron Crow. Crow is one of three pitchers the Padres are still considering – or were considering over the weekend - Tyler Matzek and Zack Wheeler are the others. Matzek and Wheeler might have higher upsides (might), but Crow isn’t a soft-tossing future 5th starter. He probably profiles best as a #3 starter and should reach the big leagues for good by the beginning of 2011.

Tyler Matzek: Tyler could be the pick, if the Padres have the same concerns regarding Tate but feel like Matzek has a higher upside than Crow – and is worth the additional cost.

Zack Wheeler: Wheeler could be an option for the Padres if they feel the price tags for Tate and Matzek are not justified and if they are underwhelmed by Crow’s talent (I do not think this is the case). Wheeler is one of the best right-handed pitchers in the draft and reportedly has reasonable bonus demands. The Padres would not be going cheap by selecting Wheeler they would merely be avoiding players with un-justified demands.

Dustin Ackley: This is a no-brainer scenario. If the Seattle Mariners take anyone other than Ackley at number 2, the Padres will take the 1B/CF prospect. This is the ideal scenario, but it is quite unlikely. One glimmer of hope, Ackley reportedly has steep bonus demands. Those demands reportedly scare Seattle (he is worth those demands).