MiLB Mock Draft

Jonathan Mayo, from MiLB.com, has his latest Mock Draft up this morning (with his last one scheduled for Monday). I wasn't going to post or link to it - I don't trust Mayo's projections - but Mayo has some comments I feel need to be refuted or discussed...

Starting with Seattle:

2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina
There's not enough information to change this pick, though there was some buzz that the Mariners were backing off of him. If that's the case, Aaron Crow still seems like the best bet.

My take: Seattle has been linked to both Matzek and Scheppers at #2 and while Crow makes sense (kick the tires, evaluate, double-check, etc.) it's hard to see teams liking him over Ackley. Both Matzek and Scheppers have risk/reward high-upside profiles that make more sense at #2. Could it be that Seattle is tired of first-round prospects that do not pan out and wants to go "safe"? I'm guessing no. Not with newly minted Jack Z. at helm.

3. San Diego Padres: Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
Still the same debate of college pitcher vs. high school athlete (Tate). There could be some discussion between Minor and Crow here, and it could go either way. But Minor remains the choice for now.

My take: Mayo's projection is what it is. I'm not going to debate that. We've been linked to all three players he mentions so we'll leave that alone. I'm more concerned with Mayo's commentary on #2 and #4 and how that relates to the Padres...

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats
The Pirates would love it if the Mariners and Padres passed on Ackley and he dropped to them, something that now sounds to be at least a remote possibility. The other choices are the same, with Grant Green potentially in the mix if they want a bat and Ackley's gone. Other college pitchers in the mix could be Alex White or Kyle Gibson, though that seems unlikely now, and there might be a high school pitcher or two who could sneak up here.

My take: I can't find the quote now, but if I remember correctly, the Padres have (off the record) said that they will take Ackley if he is there at three. Other experts (Kevin Goldstein, various Baseball America writers, etc.) have said that Ackley will not slide past 3. So to suggest that there is, "at least a remote possibility," is deceiving.

I still think the most likely scenario is:

1. Strasburg - duh!
2. Ackley
3. Crow or Tate