With the third pick...

The Padres have been linked (first here) to five potential candidates. Here are my reports from those five (in order of my personal ranking):

Dustin Ackley 1B/OF U. North Carolina

.414/.517/.768 with 16 2B, 4 3B, 20 HR with a 48/30 BB/SO ratio and went 13/17 in stolen base attempts

Ackley led his team in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging rate (by nearly 200 points), home runs, tied for the lead in triples, walks, stolen bases, runs, and RBI… Statistically, there is not a single stat that causes concern – he even strikes out less than 13% of his at-bats.

Dustin is frequently compared to Chase Utley and gets occasional Carlos Beltran comps… He’s a 4-tool player with his only below-average tool being his arm. He’s currently getting back to 100% from Tommy John surgery and has been thus-limited to first base. Nearly everyone assumes his future home is centerfield (though his college coach said he could be an above-average second-baseman).

Ackley is a well-above average hitter (3 consecutive season batting over .400) with at least average pop (20 HR - 40 XBH in junior season). He’s usually rated at 65-70 as a runner (20-80 scale). He has really only played CF in the last two weeks and in doing so has alleviated any concerns about future ability there (most scouts said he would play there, however with the Tommy John recovery, he was limited to 1B for most of the season).

Ackley is rated by every analyst I can find as the #2 prospect in the draft. Seattle’s General Manager, Jack Zduriencik, is famous for playing things close to the vest and going away from “conventional wisdom.” Seattle has also been seen scouting Tanner Scheppers which furthers speculation that they may not pick Dustin Ackley. If that does happen, the Padres will take Ackley.

Donovan Tate CF Cartersville HS (GA)

.488 with 11 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, and 17 SB

Donovan Tate may have the highest upside of any hitter in this draft. He’s a true 5-tool talent in CF. He’s drawn comparisons to Arizona centerfielder, Chris Young, and Atlanta OF Jeff Francoeur (for his athleticism).

He is considered a tough-sign and has a commitment to UNC to play QB and CF.

The one concern is according to his Baseball America scouting report, “He can get pull-happy and doesn't have a natural feel for hitting, but that doesn't significantly limit his ceiling.” Most experts say that if he gives up football he will fully develop his hitting tool.

Aaron Crow RHP Fort Worth Cats (Ind. Baseball)

0.00 ERA in 2 starts, 11 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 13 SO

Crow is listed at 6’3” but that is reportedly an exaggeration. He was considered the top collegiate right-handed pitcher in the 2008 draft and Washington drafted him 9th overall but failed to sign him so he is pitching in the indy leagues and is back in this draft.

He features a 92+ mph fastball that can touch 96 and last year he showed the ability to keep that velocity late into the games.

In my opinion, Crow is the best combination of velocity, stuff, and polish (by anyone not named Strasburg) in the draft. Tanner Scheppers has more velocity, Alex White may have more stuff, and Mike Leake could have more polish but none of those three pitchers can say they are above-average in all three.

Already 22 years old, Crow should not require a great amount of development in the minors and has a solid chance of being the first player from this draft to reach the majors.

Zach Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS (GA)

0.30 ERA in 69.0 IP with 28 H, 17 BB, 135 SO

Has low-to-mid 90’s FB and power-slurve. Like a lot of HS power-pitchers, he doesn’t throw a changeup but that’s partly because throwing a changeup would speed up a high school hitter’s bat…

Baseball America has Wheeler ranked 13th but most say it’s unlikely he falls past the Braves at 7. He’s not an over-draft at 3 (you could make a case for about 10+ guys at #3) and probably has the upside of a #2 starter.

Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt

3.64 ERA in 99 IP with 95 H, 31 BB and 103 SO

Minor has a 86-89 FB with a once-rated above-average slider, a solid curve and plus changeup. He also has a premier pickoff move.

Minor is a solid pitcher and is climbing up draft boards. Nearly every expert has Minor rated in the 30s in terms of overall draft ranking, but several experts are telling us he’s going to be drafted top 15.

I frequently defend the Padres organization when they make non-conventional picks, receive low organizational rankings, or are otherwise slighted. However this smells like a colossal over-draft. There is one possible explanation. This draft is universally called a less than top flight draft and there are some top shelf prospects available in the international market (teams are eligible to sign international free agents on July 2). If the Padres are eschewing top-5 draft prospects with $5-6+ million signing bonus demands (Tate, Turner, Green, and other all are asking for $6m or more – Ackley, I think, is right there as well) so they can spend more on the international market for higher tiered prospects then this pick might be defensible.

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As I stated earlier, these picks are listed in order my personal ranking.

If it were up to me the Padres would also consider Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, and Mike Leake (each ahead of Minor).

With just over a week to go until the amateur draft, several experts have noted that this is a “workout” draft. Teams will make their final decisions based on individual workout that players will have for them. Expect to hear a lot of “[draft prospect] was in [MLB city] for an individual workout,” this coming week. Teams will likely host 3-4 players each as they try to dial in whom the like at their draft slot.

There will be a lot info/rumors flying around. This is going to be fun (unless we take Minor).