Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Future Padre - Joe Crede (?) / Josh Fields (?)

Two AL teams, the Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Indians are potential trading partners in the Padres’ search for a third baseman. Here is the profile for the White Sox’ two…

Joe Crede – Joe Crede is every bit the enigma that Alfonso Soriano is (just for different reasons). On one hand, Crede has hit 19, 21, 22, and 30 home runs in his four full season of Major League Baseball. On the other hand, his on-base percentages for the same years were: .308, .299, .303, and .323. He clearly has decent power, but does he, or will he get on base enough to be an offensive asset?

As a minor league player, Crede hit .292/.353/.464 with 236 BB and 516 SO in 2761 at-bats. Splitting time between AAA Charlotte and the White Sox, Crede hit a career high 36 HR in 2002.

Crede plays an above-average third base. But he may have to go under the knife this off-season for back troubles.

If Joe Crede is healthy and was on a team that preached plate discipline, I think he would rebound towards his .350ish minor league on-base levels and maintain his 25+ HR power. However with his back troubles, he’s a risky acquisition.

Josh Fields – With Joe Crede manning third base, White Sox’ minor league third baseman Josh Fields may move to left field (that is if Crede and Fields are still with the White Sox in ’07).

Josh Fields was the #4 prospect in the White Sox organization heading into 2006. He is an excellent athlete and was the starting QB for Oklahoma St. Not surprisingly for a former QB, Fields has excellent arm strength.

In 124 AAA games this year, Josh hit .305/.379/.515 with 32 doubles, 4 triples, and 19 home runs. He also stole 28 bases (getting caught only 5 times). His plate discipline could use some work. Fields only walked 54 times in 462 at-bats while striking out 136 times.

As a career minor leaguer, Josh has hit .279/.354/.458. I do not foresee Josh putting up season after season of .300/.380/.500 hitting, but several .280/.350/.460’s wouldn’t surprise me (and it wouldn’t surprise me to see an extra 10-20 points of slugging either).

The one problem with both players is that the Padres do not match up as ideal trading partners. The Padres could offer Carrillo, but coming off an injury-marred year, his value is low. Similarly Linebrink would be extremely valuable as a closer to Cleveland, but the White Sox have Bobby Jenks thereby diminishing Linebrink’s value.

I do not see the Padres and White Sox matching up, but then a three-way trade could be worked out as well. Either way, both players have intriguing qualities that make them desirable.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Future Padre - Andy Marte (?) Kevin Kouzmanoff (?)

Two AL teams, the Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Indians are potential trading partners in the Padres’ search for a third baseman. Here is the profile for the Indians’ two…

Andy Marte - The Atlanta Braves signed Andy Marte out of the Dominican Republic. He quickly established himself one of the top prospects in their system and after several solid seasons he was even considered a top-5 prospect in all of baseball according to one prospect ranking.

Minor League statistics:

2001 (Rookie): 37 games .200/.306/.272 - 17 years old
2002 (Low-A): 126 games .281/.339/.492 – 32 2B & 21 HR as 18 yr. old
2003 (High-A): 130 games .285/.372/.469 – 52 XBH in extreme pitchers’ park
2004 (AA): 107 games .269/.364/.525 – 28 2B & 23 HR at 20 yrs. old
2005 (AAA): 109 games .275/.372/.506 – 64 BB / 83 SO
2006 (AAA): 96 games .261/.322/.451 – regressed after two off-season trades

Career Minor League stats:

.272/.353/.479 154 2B, 8 3B, 97 HR, 286 BB, 539 SO

MLB statistics:

2005 (Atlanta): 24 games .140/.227/.211 – Rough intro to MLB
2006 (Cleveland): 50 games .226/..287/.421 – 21 of 37 hits were extra-bases

In looking through the 2002 Baseball America Prospect Handbook (after the 2001 season), Andy Marte jumped out at me. He hadn’t hit before, but something in his profile caught my attention. I watched my “find” put it together and seemingly make daily appearances on what was then, Kevin Goldstein’s Prospect Report (now “Baseball America Prospect Report”). Andy then would routinely struggle with each promotion for a month-to-a-half-season before coming on with solid numbers.

His 2005 MLB struggles and his poor 2006 batting average are more functions of those initial struggles, in my opinion, than they are clear indications of what he’ll do long-term. Furthermore, with his low batting average and the presence of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Marte’s value is at an all-time low. Marte, to me, is a poor man’s Scott Rolen.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Kouzmanoff is everything Marte isn’t… He’s never been a top prospect. He is not a highly regarded defensive prospect. He’s a colligate draftee as opposed to an international signee. And maybe most visably, while Marte struggled to adjust to Major League pitching, Kouzmanoff hit a grand slam on the first pitch he saw in the bigs.

While Marte actually had superior MLB numbers, Kouzmanoff hit better in the minors:

2003 (SS): 54 games .272/.342/.437 – Just signed as 6th round draftee
2004 (Low-A): 123 games .330/.394/.526 – 35 2B, 5 3B, and 16 HR
2005 (High-A): 68 games .339/.401/.591 – 24 years old, but mashing
2006 (AA): 67 games .389/.449/.660 – 15 HR in 244 at-bats
2006 (AAA): 27 games .353/.409/.647 – 7 more HR in 102 at-bats

Marte is clearly the better fielder (reports have him playing an above-average third base), but Kouzmanoff may be the better hitter. Kouzmanoff is 25 years old where Marte will turn 23 this November. Marte is still growing and developing, Kouzmanoff is what he is (which is a darn good man to have at the plate with a bat in his hands).

Cleveland is a unique team for the Padres to match up with. Last year, they offered Trevor Hoffman more money than San Diego did. That Hoffman rebuffed their efforts left Cleveland without a “true” closer. Scott Linebrink has long been coveted by many teams for his perceived ability to become a closer – I think he can do it as well – Linebrink could likely wind up with a new team in 2006 in the Padres’ efforts to solve the hot corner.

While both Marte and Kouzmanoff would be solid additions to the 2007 Padres, Marte’s youth and superior defensive ability make him the more desirable of Cleveland’s two young third basemen.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Future Padre - Adrian Beltre (?)

Not all of the potential future Padres are free agents…

Adrian Beltre – Prior to the 2005 season Adrian Beltre signed a 5-year, $64 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. MLB4U.com reports that the contract included a $7m signing bonus and Beltre receives $10-12 annual salaries…

Beltre has not won a Gold Glove, but he has a reputation for playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at the hot corner. His offense has been inconsistent (particularly his batting averages and his on-base percentage). He had two consecutive seasons with on-base percentages above .350 (1999: .352 and 2000: .360) and then went three consecutive years with .310 or worse (.310, .303, and .290). Then, in 2004, his free agency year, Beltre posted a career-best .388 on-base percentage… Durring those same seasons his batting average fluctuated between .240 and .334.

When healthy however, Beltre can be counted on for 35 doubles and 20+ home runs annually. The last three years, Beltre has hit 32, 36, and 39 doubles, and 48, 19, and 25 home runs. Obviously Beltre is not the most consistent offensive threat, but he does play excellent defense and would be an upgrade over last year’s collective production out of third base.

Seattle will likely entertain offers for Beltre and he would not likely require a big return (the more Seattle is willing to pick of Beltre’s contract, the better the prospect(s) the Mariners will receive in return). However, MLB4U.com reports that Beltre has a limited no trade clause; he can veto 8 destinations. San Diego is reportedly one of those 8 locations.

Beltre will turn 28 in April next year. So he is a reasonable bet to have a few solid years while playing out the last three years of the contract.

1998: 77 games .215/.278/.369
1999: 152 games .275/.352/.428
2000: 138 games .290/.360/.475
2001: 126 games .265/.310/.411
2002: 159 games .257/.303/.426
2003: 158 games .240/.290/.424
2004: 156 games .334/.388/.629
2005: 156 games .255/.303/.413
2006: 156 games .268/.328/.465

While Beltre’s career average is .271/.328/.457 (.785 OPS) I expect his 2007-9 seasons (the remaining seasons on his contract) to resemble his 2000 (.836 OPS) and 2006 (.793) seasons more than his 2003 (.714) and 2005 (.716) ones.

Adrian Beltre will not be as productive as Aramis Ramirez, but he won’t cost as much either. This would allow his new team to invest money in other areas. His new team could also get Seattle to pick up a portion of money still owed to Beltre.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Bochy Out

The Mercury News and the ESPN.com are reporting that San Francisco intends to, “…Introduce Bruce Bochy as their new manager at a news conference [Friday]…”

I have mixed opinions about this. On one hand, Bochy had clear weaknesses; he was not a good tactician. On the other hand, he had strengths that outweighed tactical weaknesses; players wanted to play for him - he managed the clubhouse well. I worry that the next manager might be a Buck Showalter-type: a superior tactician who gets under the skin of his players.

The good news is twofold: one, Bochy would have made $1.9m in 2007 where his replacement will likely earn half that, secondly, when Lou Pinella was “let go” by Seattle and allowed to sign with Tampa Bay, Seattle got Randy Winn as payment. What will the Padres get from San Francisco? I can’t imagine Sandy Alderson would allow Bochy to walk from his contract when he had the opportunity for a talent grab.

Bochy was good for the Padres. You can’t help but tip your cap to a manager who led your home-team to two consecutive division championships. At the same time, change is good.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Future Padre - Akinori Iwamura (?)

Akinori Iwamura – Iwamura is the hardest player to profile. We just don’t know as much about Akinori as we do about players who are already playing Major League Baseball.

Let’s look at some statistics.

1999: .304/.416/.631 with 24 2B, 2 3B, 42 HR, 93/99 BB/SO
2000: .316/.438/.654 with 32 2B, 1 3B, 42 HR, 106/108 BB/SO
2001: .333/.463/.617 with 23 2B, 3 3B, 36 HR, 120/96 BB/SO
2002: .334/.463/.692 with 27 2B, 1 3B, 50 HR, 114/104 BB/SO
2003: .287/.353/.435 with 42 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 63/86 BB/SO
2004: .298/.390/.522 with 34 2B, 2 3B, 31 HR, 88/103 BB/SO
2005: .305/.367/.496 with 45 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 63/78 BB/SO
2006: .302/.393/.494 with 9 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 27/23 BB/SO

As you can see we’ve got some VERY nice power numbers, especially up until 2003. At that point we had a paradigm shift. The player we’re looking at is not Akinori Iwamura, it’s Hideki Matsui.

As a Japanese player Matsui hit .304/.413/.582. As a Yankee he has hit .287/.372/.485.

Now let’s look at some more numbers (the on-base percentage and slugging percentages are approximations):

.277/.366/.430 – nine years of Japanese baseball, 1100 games and 4000 at-bats…

…and…

.281/.331/.399 – five years of MLB, roughly 450 games and less than 1000 at-bats for So Taguchi.

Now let’s look at Akinori’s stats.

1999: .294/.341/.500 with 11 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, and 18/46 BB/SO
2000: .278/.342/.472 with 13 2B, 9 3B, 18 HR, and 39/106 BB/SO
2001: .287/.342/.472 with 24 2B, 4 3B, 18 HR, and 32/111 BB/SO
2002: .320/.390/.531 with 35 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, and 58/114 BB/SO
2003: .263/.328/.461 with 6 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, and 22/55 BB/SO (in 60 games)
2004: .300/.383/.583 with 19 2B, 0 3B, 44 HR, and 70/173 BB/SO
2005: .319/.388/.555 with 31 2B, 4 3B, 30 HR, and 63/146 BB/SO
2006: .311/.389/.544 with 27 2B, 2 3B, 32 HR, and 70/128 BB/SO

Iwamura doesn’t have anywhere near Matsui’s power; either in Japan or once he plays in the Majors. But that doesn’t mean isn’t valuable. He certainly has more speed than Matsui displayed. That athleticism prompted Iwamura to tell potential MLB suitors that in addition to third base, he is capable and willing to play second base and centerfield. Iwamura, an excellent defender, has won five Japanese Gold Gloves at 3B.

He still projects as an above-average hitter (more-so if he’s playing 2B or CF). Looking at Taguchi and Matsui may shed light on what kind of hitter Iwamura will be in the Majors, but looking at those players could actually cloud our judgment. Iwamura, a left-handed hitter, could actually have 25 HR power, but more likely he’ll hit 17-22 with quite a few doubles. His strikeout-rate has fallen the last two years (from 173 to 146 to 128 while he walked 70, 63, and 70 times the last three years. His strikeouts will probably spike his first year as he adjusts to MLB pitching.

I would expect (“guess” is probably a better word) a first-year around .260/.320/.440 with additional years of .280/.360/.480…

Now for the sticky part, what will Iwamura cost? Iwamura is not a free agent. Before losing Iwamura to U.S. baseball and having nothing to show for it, his Japanese team will “post” him allowing MLB teams to bid on his negotiating rights. The winning bid will have exclusive negotiating rights. Iwamura will probably sign a three-year contract worth $12-5 million but his posting team will probably get that much or more for its fee.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Future Padre - Aramis Ramirez (?)

Moving on to third basemen…

***

Aramas Ramirez – In 2005, Aramis Ramirez signed a 4-year deal with the Chicago Cubs. That deal included a “opt out” clause that allows Ramirez to become a free agent this off-season. In his MLBTradeRumos.com, Tom Dierkers chronicled the contractual goings-on of Ramirez and the Cubs and predicts the next few steps.

Ramirez plays above-average defense at third base, has shown consistent power, and has hit consistently the last four years (.280, .318, .302, and .291 batting averages). In each of Ramirez’ last six years he has hit between 18 and 38 home runs (other than the 18 in 2002, Ramirez’ low during that six-year span is 27).

Ramirez isn’t ideal. He could walk more (he’s never walked more than 50 times in a season). But at the same time, in the last three years he has only struck out 62, 60, and 63 times (in those same seasons Ramirez walked 49, 35, and 50 times). Another negative about Ramirez is that like Carlos Lee, Ramirez compiled his impressive statistics in the friendly confines of the NL Central. As a Padre, Ramirez would play 81 games in Petco and another 18-20 in noted pitchers’ parks Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park. His numbers would come down some…

Unlike a lot of the other potential free agents, Ramirez is at the beginning of his prime. Ramirez will turn 29 this June and thus he is less likely to have a serious performance drop-off.

Even if Ramirez costs less than Soriano (and I think he will) he’ll still command at least four years and at least $13-to-14 million per year. He’s also a decent bet to out-perform Soriano and/or Lee.

Padres Still Have Rights to Latos

In this past June’s draft, the Padres used one of their picks on Matthew Latos. At that time I wrote the following about Latos:

In the 11th round, the Padres picked a high school pitcher with first- or second-round talent, Matthew Latos. Latos has a fastball that sits at 93-94 mph and touches 96-97. He adds a power curveball to his high-velocity fastball. Latos did not fall to the 11th round without reason. Latos had various “maturity” issues that dogged him on the field and off. At his best Latos is a premiere talent. At his worst, he can’t control his temper… The Padres may try to persuade Latos to attend a junior college while they retain his rights for a year.

On September 12th, Baseball America (requires subscription) chimed in with an update:

Latos, who had committed to Oklahoma, chose to attend Broward (Fla.) Community College near his Margate home. He was drafted in the 11th round by the Padres, and San Diego retains its right to negotiate with him up to a week before the 2007 draft.

Now, with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, the entire “draft and follow” process was scrapped.

"…Teams will no longer have until the next draft to sign their picks, but must do so by the following Aug. 15 or the player goes back into the pool."

I am awaiting word-back on whether they will “grandfather” the “draft and follow” process, or if teams like San Diego are simply “up a creek” with the players that went the junior college route.

***

I just got word that the new rules do not apply to the 2006 draft. Thus the Padres (and of course, every other team) still have the rights to their "Draft and Follow" players.

Future Padre - [Mystery LF] (?)

Let’s play a game: I’ll give you info; you stop me when you can identify the player (no looking ahead and no looking at websites for stats).

  • He played his last two seasons in a pitchers’ paradise yet posted .300/.350/.515 or better both years…
  • He has hit between 18 and 39 HR every year since 1993 and between 21 and 36 doubles every year since 1992…
  • While he doesn’t always walk more than he strikes out, his walk total has been within 15 of his strikeout total every year since 1995…
  • He is thought of as an ideal-influence for young players…
  • He comes from a family tree rich in baseball history…
  • His career batting line is .301/.368/.516.

Ladies and Gentlemen, let me introduce you to Moises Alou.

2005: 123 games & 427 AB .321/.400/.518 with 21 2B and 19 HR
2006: 98 games & 345 AB .310/.352/.571 with 25 2B and 22 HR

Moises has played on playoff teams and has a World Series championship ring with the ’97 Marlins. On his career he only has 860 strikeouts to go with 708 walks in 6660 AB.

We obviously have injury concerns with a player who will turn 41 on July 3rd 2007 and who only played 221 games the past two seasons, but at the same time, we have the capable Ben Johnson and Terrmel Sledge as potential backups. And Alou would not require a large investment (allowing resources to be spent elsewhere).

With the deeper part of the Padres farm only reaching High-A (David Freese, Will Venable, Kyle Blanks, and Nic Crosta – who played half a season in High-A already) a short-term guy like Alou could be an effective stop-gap that allows us to spend more at third base and the rotation.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Future Padre - Gary Sheffield (?)

Gary Sheffield – The Yankees hold a $13 million option on Gary for 2007. With outfielders Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Bobby Abreu already under contract and DH/1B Jason Giambi in the fold as well, the Yankees will likely decline Sheffield’s option. Furthermore, while the Yankees spend more money than anyone else, even they don’t have a bottom barrel of cash. And their needs demand that they spend the lion’s share of their budget on pitching.

Sheffield has career numbers (.297/.398/.525) that exceed Soriano’s best year. However, Sheffield will turn 38 this November and is coming off his worst year since 1991 with Milwaukee.

Sheffield walks more than he strikes out (1293 career BB & 971 SO) and still has a right-handed pull swing and lightning-quick bat. The Western Metal Supply Co. building should look inviting.

Averaging Sheffield’s last three full seasons (excluding last year where Sheffield played in only 39 games and accumulated 151 at-bats) shows that Gary still has a potent bat (the OBP & SLG are approximated):

.304/.397/.550 with 31 doubles, 36 home runs, 85 walks and only 71 strikeouts.

Sheffied has never been a plus-defender in the outfield, but a move from right field to left would minimize that negative.

Because of Sheffield’s age and injury-plagued 2006, Sheffield will command fewer dollars and fewer years than either Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Lee. Even such, Sheffield is talented enough that he will not come cheap. Best guess sees Sheff locking down a 3-year deal worth around $30-35 million (maybe a two-year deal with a vesting option).

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Future Padre - Carlos Lee (?)

Carlos Lee – To me, Carlos has a series of conflicting statistics that alternatively suggest that Lee can maintain his dominant 2006 or refute that very hypothesis.

  • Lee walks nearly as much as he strikes out (58 BB vs. 65 SO).
  • Among qualifying MLB left fielders, Lee has the third worst pitches per plate appearance…
  • Lee has hit between 35 and 41 doubles for six consecutive years.
  • Lee’s batting yearly batting averages have yo-yo’d (starting in 2002): .264, .291, .305, .265, and .300 in 2006.
  • Lee is generally regarded as a poor defender and his conservatively listed playing weight of 240 is potentially disconcerting for a player already 30 years old.
  • Lee stole 19 bases in 2006 (and at least 11 in every year of his career except 2001) suggesting he might be a better athlete than we thought.
  • Lee also put up his big numbers in offense-friendly environments. What would 81 games in PETCO plus another 20 in San Francisco’s and Los Angeles’ pitcher-friendly ballparks do to his production?

Lee arguably had as big of a 2006 as Soriano, but Lee did so without the East Coast spotlight and with out the prestige that Soriano’s 40-40 year ensured. Lee hit .300/.355/.540 between 102 games with Milwaukee and 59 games with Texas. He hit 37 HR and 37 doubles between his two stops and surprisingly stole 19 bases while getting caught only twice.

Lee will likely command fewer dollars than Soriano (but not by much). And like Soriano, it will likely require a five-year commitment to win Lee’s services…

Lee’s career averages are .286/.340/.495. While two of the last three years exceeded his average production, would we get enough out of Lee to justify the investment?

Padres Look Good

Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumers.com is doing "Team Outlooks" for every team. He just completed his Padres Outlook. It's easily worth reading.

Iwamura to the Padres?

"Hochi Sports has third baseman Akinori Iwamura signed, sealed and delivered to San Diego this offseason, showcasing the visit by Randy Smith to a Swallows workout facility during a rainout to watch him as well as the Padres revolvong door at third. There is also some interest from the Phillies and there might be even more interest if he was willing to switch to second base, but he has indicated that he won't do that."

This was posted on John Sickles' site...

I tried to find the original quote, but "Hoshi Sports" is a Japanese language site...

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Future Padre, Alfonso Soriano (?)

Starting in the outfield, I am profiling several acquisition candidates: trade candidates, free agency candidates, and internal candidates.

Alfonso Soriano – In 2006, Alfonso had his best year (.277/.351/.560). In fact, Soriano’s 2006 surprised a lot of people (including me). Texas is probably the best hitters’ park in the American League yet Soriano had his worst two years since his rookie campaign (.280/.324/.484 in 2004 and .268/.309/.512 in 2005). After moving to Washington’s spacious RFK many people (including me) logically concluded that Soriano was headed for a decline. Instead Soriano went out and joined the illustrious 40-40 club (46 HR & 41 SB).

After a career-year in 2006, many people (again) concluded Soriano is headed for a decline. This time, I am not one of those people.

Soriano played for Buck Showalter in 2004 & ’05. At the end of 2006, Soriano’s former team, the Texas Rangers, did what former Buck Showalter teams do, mutinied and had Buck fired. I think getting out from under Buck was a boon to Soriano’s career. I also think Bruce Bochy, a highly regarded players’ manager, would allow Soriano to shine.

Now for the bad part: Soriano has already turned down a 5-year, $70 million extension with the Washington Nationals. It will likely take at least $75 to sign the left fielder.

So if the Padres did commit to Soriano, and I have been told that Towers does like Soriano (no word as to whether Alderson likes Soriano as well), what can we expect?

I looked at Soriano’s career averages (I excluded his 1999 and 2000 seasons when he played 9 and 22 games respectively). Soriano has averaged:

.280/.325/.510 with 39 2B, 3 3B, 34 HR, 37 BB, 136 SO, 35 SB, and 10 CS

In his last three years his numbers are:

.275/.328/.519 with 39 2B, 3 3B, 37 HR, 44 BB, 135 SO, 30 SB, and 8 CS

…And of course last season he hit:

.277/.351/.560 with 41 2B, 2 3B, 46 HR, 67 BB, 160 SO, 41 SB, and 17 CS

Obviously if Soriano’s new employer (the Padres, Cubs, or whomever) gets five years of .277/.351/.519 and 35-40 HR, he’ll be worth every penny. On the other hand, if Soriano reverts to his hack-o-matic 35-walk seasons, he could be a drag on his new team’s offense.

In the previous paragraph I intentionally use the word “could.” Again, if Soriano doesn’t continue to take walks at his 2006 rate, “he could be a drag on his new team’s offense.” Soriano’s career XBH-rate is 42.7% In 2005, Soriano had 81 XBH out of 171 hits (47.4%) and in 2006 he had a 49.7% XBH-rate. I have a hard time believing that a player who gets 170+ hits per season and has a 45-50% XBH-rate is an offensive drag because he averages one fewer walk per week. Yes, the difference between Soriano’s “poor” typical season (33 walks) and his “good” 2006 season is about one walk per week.

Now I’m a FIRM believer in the power of the walk, but have we taken it too far? I’m just asking…

All in all, I have time concluding that Soriano is bad investment. But he’s obviously a big investment.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Hot Stove Primer

I started this as a one-piece article. It is now 6 rambling pages long as I continue to profile additional off-season acquisistion targets. So I decided on a new format. Here is my initial comments and I'll profile various targets in coming days...

***

On Sunday morning, October 7th, 2006 I received a blast e-mail from Michael J. Hindman. Hindman writes an in-depth report on what happens with the Texas Rangers’ minor league teams. And let me say, he does an EXCELLENT job.

The e-mail I received on that Sunday was different. Hindman entitled it, “MJH's Rangers 2007 Hot Stove Manifesto.” I wanted to link this article to it. But after e-mailing Michael, he told me, “I doubt it will go up on [Jamey Newberg’s NewbergReport.com] and I don't have anywhere to post it, so the e-mail version will likely be the only version.” When I told him I wanted to follow his format he said I didn’t need to give him credit. Posh!

Here is my “PRD’s Padres 2007 Hot Stove Manifesto” or Hot Stove Primer:

Padres 2007 25-man roster:

C –
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Josh Barfield
3B –
SS – Khalil Greene
LF –
CF – Mike Cameron
RF – Brian Giles

SP1 – Jake Peavy
SP2 – Chris Young
SP3 –
SP4 – Clay Hensley
SP5 –

Set-up1 – Cla Meredith
Set-up2 – Scott Linebrink
Closer – Trevor Hoffman

Middle-IF –
Corner-IF –
OF4 – Ben Johnson/Terrmel Sledge
C2 – Josh Bard
C3 – Rob Bowen

Mid-Rel1 –
Mid-Rel2 –
Mid-Rel3 –

According to HardballDollars.com (I also used the excellent MLB4U.com in my research), the Padres spent just shy of $75mm on their 40-man roster. The Padres’ 2007 payroll is likely to be in the same neighborhood.

While I didn’t add up the players’ salaries of those who did not spend significant time on the 25-man roster, other than Ryan Klesko and Shaun Estes, who each spent nearly the entire season on the DL, the Padres didn’t have any other player who cost more than $500,000. (most were less than $300k). If we assume a $300k average then those 15 players will cost $4.5 million (keep in mind, I’m assuming high here to force myself to spend conservatively).

Now, let’s look at that player list again by groupings:

IF/C (starters)

Adrian Gonzales is not yet arbitration eligible (I'm not 100% certain on this one - Adrian played sparingly in '04 and '05 - he wasn't a rookie and has less than two years cumulative service, but I could be wrong), as such he essentially will play for whatever the Padres want to spend on him. At the same time, the Padres will want to reward him for his excellent season. When Sean Burroughs was in this boat, the Padres gave him less than $400k. I think the Padres will be a bit more generous with their leading HR hitter; figure $500,000. Barfield is in the same boat as Gonzalez, but he didn’t play as well and Gonzalez came up to the majors in 2004 where Josh made his debut this year; let’s guess at $350,000 for Barfield.

Khalil Greene is a different story. Khalil, who came up at the end of 2003, is arbitration-eligible. Khalil did hit 15 HR for the third consecutive year (in 121 games - just like last year), but his oft-injured nature will likely hurt his arbitration chances. The Padres may try to trade the young shortstop, but they would need another SS in return (not likely). Arbitration is often ugly, don’t be surprised if the Padres try to lock up Greene fairly cheaply but for two or three years (giving both some security). Let’s assume $2 million.

The Padres have an option on Mike Piazza ($8 million). The Padres will likely try to negotiate with Piazza to keep him. If the Padres are able to get something done with Piazza, it will likely be north of $5 million; let’s assume $6 million.

That leaves third base… We’ll get back to this.

With third base up in the air, the Padres (in my Piazza-signing scenario) have now spent $8.85 million on the infield/catching starters.

OF (starters)

With three outfield positions, the Padres have three outfield contract situations. The Padres have Brian Giles signed for $9 million and an option of Mike Cameron for $7 million. The Padres will exercise that option. That leaves left field. In 2006, Padres’ leadoff hitter and fan favorite, Dave “Doc” Roberts, patrolled left field. The Padres have commented that they like Roberts and would like to have him back in 2007, but that they need more power in their lineup and left field is one of the few places they don’t have locked up. Roberts will likely not be back in 2007 for that reason. We’ll talk about potential left fielders later as well.

Again, with one position outstanding, the Padres have $16 million spoken for.

Starting Pitching

The Padres have three starting pitching slots spoken locked up. Staff Ace, Jake Peavy’s 4-year deal guarantees Jake $4.75 million in 2007. Chris Young, despite being a 2nd year player, already has a long-term deal. As a 6’10” collegiate basketball player a potential NBA allowed him to force a buy-out contract. He’s still inexpensive and will cost the Padres $500k in 2007. The third starter with a rotation slot locked up is Clay Hensley. Hensley debuted in 2005, but didn’t accumulate much service time. Like Barfield, the Padres can re-sign him essentially at whatever price they want. Hensley will like get a deal near $400k.

With two slots unspoken-for, the Padres have spent $5.65 million.

Relief Corps

The Padres’ back end of the relief corps, Meredith-Linebrink-Hoffman, is famously effective and relatively inexpensive. Scott Linebrink cost $1.365 million in 2006 and will cost $1.75 million in ’07. Cla Meredith, a 2006 rookie was paid a prorated portion of $300k. He’ll likely get a small raise to around $325,000. Hoffman’s deal paid him $6.75 in 2006 and he’ll get the same amount in ’07.

Assuming that the Padres will go with an eleven-man pitching staff, the Padres would carry six relievers. With the two set-up men and closer already costing an assumed $8.825 million

Alan Embree pitched well for the Padres in 2002 and talked about coming back. He parlayed that success into a big contract. After posting seven-plus ERA’s with both the Yankees and Red Sox in 2005, the Padres were able to sign Embree inexpensively for $850,000. After another good season with the Padres Embree will likely be in demand again. Towers calls himself, “the Sludge Merchant,” for his ability to find solid bullpen arms on the cheap, but Towers will likely want to re-sign Embree if he can do so at a reasonable price. Let’s assume the Padres do thank Embree and re-sign him with a sizable raise; $1.5 million – I’m comfortable with this price because if they do not sign Embree, the $1.5 million number will likely allow the Padres to sign a reasonable facsimile…

The Padres paid Scott Cassidy $330k and Brian Sweeny $340k. While those two are not necessarily going to have the same roles here in 2007, the Padres will again fill the last two bullpen jobs for less than $1 million.

Bench

With eight men starting in the field and an eleven-man pitching staff, the Padres have six bench jobs to fill. The Padres have a $1 million-option on Russell Branyan. They will likely exercise that option. Todd Walker, who best profiles as a 2B and has filled in at 3B and backed up at 1B, may want to go to a team where he can be a full-time starter. The Padres will probably try to work something out with Walker early but will definitely not offer him arbitration.

With Mike Piazza re-signed, the Padres will likely carry the same three catchers they did for the majority of 2006. Bard, who made a prorated $280k in 2006 figures to get a substantial raise, I’m estimating Bard’s 2007 salary to be $750,000 because I’m not sure what to make from his service time… Rob Bowen is also tricky. I don’t know exactly how you treat a guy who signed off the waiver wire. That said, I think the Padres will re-sign Bowen for something in the neighborhood of $400,000.

Ben Johnson or Terrmel Sledge could likely play the 4th outfielder role. Johnson has more speed so he could double as a pinch-runner and he also plays passable CF and has enough arm to handle RF. Johnson can be signed cheaply (figure $330k). Sledge on the other hand has a more reliable bat. Either could be a cheap LF starter and together they could play a platoon. More likely though, the Padres will solve LF via free agency and one of the two (Johnson or Sledge) will be a full-time bench guy for San Diego.

The Padres still need one “bat” and one “glove.” Bench players have become increasingly high profile and their salaries have followed suit. Expect the Padres to spend $2 million on these “last” two bench players; one has to be a reliable glove to spell Barfield and the oft-injured Greene, the other, preferably a right-handed hitter (Jon Knott? Lefty-hitting Paul McAnulty?) needs to be able to spell Adrian Gonzales at 1B.

Geoff Blum, a switch hitter who made $650k in 2006 could be back with San Diego in 2007, but will likely make close to double that amount as a result of his impressive ’06.

End Result

Before picking up anyone’s option, the Padres are on the hook for $32.3 million in 2007 by my calculations.

***

Tomorrow I'll start posting my player profiles.

Friday, October 13, 2006

PRD's Top 25 Padres Minor League Players (1-5)

The Florida Marlins were in the NL Wild Card hunt until the final season with a $16 million payroll. Padres rookies Adrian Gonzales and Josh Barfield were second and sixth among hitters, respectively in terms of “Value Over Replacement Player” (VORP) and fellow rookies Clay Hensley and Cla Meredith were second and fourth among the pitchers. Virtually every team needs to get meaningful contribution out of its farm in order to do well. Farm players are cheaper, thus allowing the team to spend money in other areas of need.

In addition to the four players mentioned above, the Padres also received contribution from several other Padres rookies. This off-season the Padres will have some $25 million coming off the books. While the Padres will likely be players on the free agent market, they will again need the support of the farm as they look to build on the success of a 88-win repeat-NL West Championship season.

In 2005 the Padres added CEO Sandy Alderson to the helm and he brought in Grady Fuson to run the Padres minor leagues/scouting departments. Since then the Padres have made significant gains in the scouting/development arenas.

Welcome to my top 25. Players will be introduced in reverse order, 5 at a time…

Monday: 21-25
Tuesday: 16-20
Wednesday: 11-15
Thursday: 6-10

Check back if you haven’t already seen those portions of my list.

Thanks for reading.

5. Will Venable, OF, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: October 29, 1982, 6’2” 205

As you can see by the listed birth date, Will Venable was old for Low A… Venable was drafted (2005, 7th round) and signed by the Padres as a collegiate senior rather than a junior (Will was drafted by the Orioles in the 15th round as a junior but went back to school for his senior year) which slowied his development process. However, Will, whose father Max is the Padres’ Low-A hitting instructor, focused on basketball in high school and college (winning Princeton’s team MVP honors in both his junior and senior seasons). Venable did not even play baseball as a collegiate freshman. Thus Will has much less baseball experience than most Low-A players. Now, because Will was late to baseball, he may continue to “grow” into the sport, making the outfielder’s 2006 campaign, his first full-season of professional baseball, all the more impressive.

The Midwest League is known to suppress hitting stats. Yet Venable still posted solid “rate” and “counting” stats… Venable hit .314 with 34 doubles, 5 triples, and 11 home runs, scoring 86 runs and knocking in 91 (a new Fort Wayne record). Will should have a huge season next year in Lake Elsinore. Look for that HR total to rise dramatically in the offense-friendly Cal League.

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.314/.389/.477 – 472 AB, 86 R, 148 H, 34 2B, 5 3B, 11 HR, 91 RBI, 55 BB, 81 SO, 18 SB, 5 CS

4. Matt Antonelli, 3B, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: April 8, 1985, 6’0” 195 lbs.

Padres’ first selection in the 2006 draft, Matt Antonelli had a mixed inaugural professional season… A previous collegiate injury (arm related) flared up and caused the top pick to miss a week in the middle of the season. Then, after returning to action on July 27th, Antonelli went 9 for 60 (.150) over his next 17 games. Furthermore, after hitting a career-high 11 home runs as well as 18 doubles (.584 slugging percentage) as a junior at Wake Forest, Antonelli went homerless in his professional debut and managed only a .360 slugging rate in the offense-friendly Northwest League.

But the news regarding Antonelli isn’t all bad. Padres brass insist he has 5-tool talent (though even they don’t project Antonelli to hit more than 20 HR in the big leagues). Grady Fuson was quoted that Antonelli was a true “70” runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale). And probably most impressively, despite his lack of a power-display, Antonelli did control the strike zone with 31 strikeouts while working 46 walks.

Matt does not have prototypical power for a third baseman. And when he was promoted to Low-A Fort Wayne for their playoff push, Antonelli made a couple of starts at second. Although Antonelli’s speed suggests that a move to centerfield is possible, his Fort Wayne experience foreshadowed his move to the second base. Scout.com reported that Antonelli played exclusively at the keystone during the Instructionals.

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.125/.222/.313 – 16 AB, 3 R, 2 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS

Short Season A (Eugene):
.286/.426/.360 – 189 AB, 38 R, 54 H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 22 RBI, 46 BB, 31 SO, 9 SB, 1 CS

3. Chase Headley, 3B, Bats: S, Throws: R, Birthday: May 9, 1984, 6’2” 195 lbs.

Chase has an ideal body for baseball, strong and athletic he’s easily 10-20 lbs. heavier (and stronger) than his listed weight. He played his 2006 campaign in Lake Elsinore. If you’re not familiar with The Diamond in Lake Elsinore, it is nearly rectangular… Right field is relatively short and has a high wall. The left-center ally extends to 425 ft. (the deepest point of the park). Those dimensions held Chase to only 33 doubles and 12 home runs (only 4 of his 12 HR were at home) he hit .261/.368/.365 at home vs. .321/.409/.502 on the road.

The name I hear most often compared to Headley is Bill Mueller. Mueller has a career .291/.375/.425 line and his career-best season was in 2003 with the Red Sox when he hit .326/.398/.540 (his only year w/ a slugging percentage over .500). Mueller’s career is the type of career many envision Chase having (with the possibility of a little more power). Headley could be an occasional All Star and he’ll likely never embarrass his team offensively (whether he stays at 3B or moves to LF/RF) but it’s unlikely he’ll ever carry a team by himself.

A switch-hitter, Chase needs to work on his right-handed approach (Chase batted .237/.304/.341 against LHP).

2006 Statistics:

High-A Lake Elsinore:
.291/.389/.434 - 484 AB, 79 R, 141 H, 33 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 73 RBI, 74 BB, 96 SO, 4 SB, 5 CS

2. Cedric Hunter, OF, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: March 10, 1988, 6’0” 185 lbs.

Cedric burst onto the scene in 2006. Like most other signed high school draftees, Hunter was sent to his organization’s Rookie-ball club, the Arizona League Padres.

After drafting Hunter, Padres Director of Player Development, Grady Fuson, called Cedric, "…a Milton Bradley type player. [He’s a] very good athlete with a chance to be an offensive player in the middle of the field."

Rookie-ball pitchers aren’t known for being the most accurate, so a solid prospect with a decent eye can rack up a few walks. Rookie-ball umpires aren’t always the most accurate either, so racking up more than few strikeouts isn’t uncommon for even a top prospect with a good eye (i.e. when Colorado’s prospect, Ian Stewart, struck out 54 times in Rookie-ball, Colorado front office people said it was because he knew the strike zone better than the umpires did). In 213 Rookie-ball at-bats, Cedric only struck out 22 times… …and he walked 40 times. Cedric reached base 48 straight games to open his professional career. He went on to win the league MVP title.

Two things to watch for as Cedric develops: one, some scouts think his speed will diminish as he grows rendering him too big and too slow for centerfield, and two, unlike the previously mentioned Stewart, Cedric does not have prodigious power. If he moves off of CF, his 15-20 projected power may not play as a corner OF slot. While that could be an issue, if he continues to display the patience and strike zone control that he did in Arizona, he could hit 5 HR and be an asset.

2006 Statistics:

Short Season Eugene:
.267/.313/.267 – 15 AB, 0 R, 4 H, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 SB, 1 CS

Rookie Arizona League Padres:
.371/.467/.484 – 213 AB, 46 R, 79 H, 13 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 44 RBI, 40 BB, 22 SO, 17 SB, 5 CS

1. Cesar Carrillo, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: April 29, 1984 6’3” 175 lbs.

The slender right-hander missed most of 2006 after having forearm/elbow pain. The Padres have said he won’t need surgery, but his pain did return during a rehab throwing session in August, which shelved plans for Cesar to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. When healthy, Cesar throws a low-90’s two-seam fastball and mid-90’s four-seam fastball along with a changeup and curveball. Carrillo projects as a #2 starter.

Even with the injury, Carrillo’s profile is high enough (especially since the organization is thin at the higher levels) that he is the number one prospect in the organization.

Carrillo will likely begin the season back in AA to regain some confidence and will be quickly promoted to AAA (again).

If Carrillo proves healthy in 2007, he should emerge as one of the better starters in the upper levels of minor league baseball.

2006 Statistics:

AAA Portland:
0-0, 6.75 ERA, 2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 1 SO, 0.50 GO/AO, .222 BAA

AA Mobile:
1-3, 3.02 ERA, 50.2 IP, 45 H, 23 R, 17 ER, 5 HR 15 BB, 43 BB, 1.76 GO/AO, .239 BAA

Thursday, October 12, 2006

PRD's Top 25 Padres Minor League Players (6-10)

The Florida Marlins were in the NL Wild Card hunt until the final season with a $16 million payroll. Padres rookies Adrian Gonzales and Josh Barfield were second and sixth among hitters, respectively in terms of “Value Over Replacement Player” (VORP) and fellow rookies Clay Hensley and Cla Meredith were second and fourth among the pitchers. Virtually every team needs to get meaningful contribution out of its farm in order to do well. Farm players are cheaper, thus allowing the team to spend money in other areas of need.

In addition to the four players mentioned above, the Padres also received contribution from several other Padres rookies. This off-season the Padres will have some $25 million coming off the books. While the Padres will likely be players on the free agent market, they will again need the support of the farm as they look to build on the success of a 88-win repeat-NL West Championship season.

In 2005 the Padres added CEO Sandy Alderson to the helm and he brought in Grady Fuson to run the Padres minor leagues/scouting departments. Since then the Padres have made significant gains in the scouting/development arenas.

Welcome to my top 25. Players will be introduced in reverse order, 5 at a time…

Monday: 21-25
Tuesday: 16-20
Wednesday: 11-15

Check back if you haven’t already seen those portions of my list.

Thanks for reading.

10. Paul McAnulty, OF/1B, Bats: L, Throws R, Birthday: February 24, 1981, 5’10” 220 lbs.

Paul McAnulty, “The Hammer,” “P-Mac…” Whatever… All he does is hit. Paul is not going to be an average defender at any position. However he plays a passable 1B and a workable LF. The Padres also claim McAnulty can play RF, but it’s unlikely he’d be able to handle Petco’s spacious right-center and he’s not known for his throwing ability; RF would probably be by emergency only.

This season, in an effort to find more ways to get his bat on the field, the Padres had McAnulty log extensive experience at 3B. Baseball experts often praise a player for not taking offensive troubles with them back to the field. Likewise, McAnulty didn’t take his defensive struggles (21 errors overall, 12 coming in 50 games at 3B) back with him to plate. In 198 AB as a third baseman, Paul hit better than he did as a 1B, his normal position.

The Padres traded for slick-fielding Adrian Gonzales (who is younger than McAnulty) to man 1B for the near future in San Diego. The Padres are still looking to find more power production in left field. A Paul McAnulty/Ben Johnson left field platoon is not out of the question for 2007. If not, Paul will likely be traded or find himself on the bench in San Diego next year. He has nothing left to prove in AAA.

2006 Statistics

MLB (San Diego):
.231/.333/.538 – 13 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 4 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS

AAA (Portland):
.310/.388/.521 – 478 AB, 76 R, 148 H, 34 2B, 5 3B, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 62 BB, 79 SO, 1 SB, 2 CS

9. Kyler Burke, OF, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: April 20, 1988, 6’3” 205 lbs.

The Padres were very high on Kyler Burke heading into 2006 draft (the Padres selected Burke in the first-supplemental round). In fact, in one interview Grady Fuson said the Padres took a chance by not using the 17th overall pick on Burke. To be able to get a talented player in your organization is always a good thing, using a later-than-expected pick to acquire that player, is even better.

Burke is a big strong kid from a small high school in Tennessee who had a solid senior season and performed well against other top prospects in showcase events. He had some of the best raw power in the draft hitting 20 HR as a high school senior. In reporting on Kyler’s athleticism, Baseball America pointed out that he won a high school slam-dunk contest, played linebacker, and even registered a few 90-91’s on the mound. His one tool that doesn’t profile as “above average” or better is his average speed.

His professional debut in the rookie-level Arizona League wasn’t a smashing success… He struck out 56 times (in 163 AB) and obviously needs to make an adjustment. However he did walk 26 times. He also only had 8 XBH: 3 doubles, 4 triples, and one home run, but the Padres are confident he’ll display the same power he showed as an amateur once he adjusts to professional baseball.

2006 Statistics:

Short-Season (AZL Padres):
.209/.313/.294 – 163 AB, 24 R, 34 H, 3 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 26 BB, 56 SO, 1 SB, 3 CS

8. Kyle Blanks, OF/1B, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: September 11, 1986, 6’6” 270 lbs.

Drafted in 2004 as a “Draft and Follow” out of Yavapai JC in Arizona in the 42nd round, Blanks signed right before the 2005 draft. Blanks is big enough that scouts say he would make Frank Thomas look small. Despite his size, Blanks has rare athleticism with Major League-average speed and noteworthy bat speed.

In the midst of a solid season, Blanks was sidelined in late July with an infection in his ankle and missed the remainder of the season. At the time of the injury, Blanks co-lead the Fort Wayne Wizards with 10 HR. Blanks recovered in time to join other Padres prospects in Arizona for the Instructional league in September.

Blanks is one of many patient, powerful hitters (possibly with the highest upside) who best profile as LF or 1B…

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.292/.382/.455 – 308 AB, 41 R, 90 H, 20 2B, 0 3B, 10 HR, 52 RBI, 36 BB, 79 SO, 2 SB, 0 CS

7. David Freese, 3B, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: April 28, 1983, 6’2” 220 lbs.

As Baseball America reported before the draft, “Freese, 23, could have been a prime candidate to sign following the season as a fifth-year senior, but South Alabama earned a spot in the NCAA regional play,” thus preventing Freese from negotiating with clubs and sending Freese back into the draft. The Padres were happy he was available taking the strong right-handed hitter in the 9th round.

Freese and Antonelli were both assigned to the Short-Season Eugene club and shared 3B and DH responsibilities. Off to a blazing start, Freese was promoted to Low-A Fort Wayne after only 18 games. In those 18 games (58 AB) David accumulated 22 hits, 13 of which were of the extra-base variety… In his debut season, Freese had 37 XBH (out of 83 hits).

Freese is obviously old for his level. So he has to do two things to maintain “prospect” status: one, he has to put some serious numbers (check), two, he has to advance quickly (check).

Freese will likely be assigned to Lake Elsinore next season and should have another big season. He defense needs work and he could stand to cut down on his strikeouts… While he may also get a look at LF (1B has also been mentioned as a future position, but the Padres have too much talent at 1B, including current Padres 1B, Adrian Gonzalez who is only 1 year older than Freese), the Padres are currently letting the right-hander play his way off the hot corner.

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.299/.374/.510 – 204 AB, 27 R, 61 H, 13 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 21 BB, 44 SO, 1 SB, 1 CS

Short-Season (Eugene):
.379/.465/.776 – 58 AB, 19 R, 22 H, 8 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 7 BB, 12 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS

6. Nick Hundley, C, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: September 8, 1983, 6’1” 210 lbs.

With the trade of George Kottaras to Boston, Nick Hundley assumes the mantle of “Padres’ catcher of the future.” Actually there is more at work in the Padres’ catching situation…

Before the season started, the Padres had planned on Mike Piazza and Doug Mirabelli handing the catching this season and Kottaras taking over in 2007. Mirabelli was then traded back to Boston for Josh Bard (along with Cla Meredith and $100,000). Then Piazza and Bard hit better than anyone could have expected and Rob Bowen was added as a third catcher to help keep strain off Piazza’s aging body. With the success of the Padres’ catching corps, Kottaras inability to win over organizational supporters as a receiver, and the immergence of Nick Hundley (who does not share Kottaras’ defensive question marks), the Padres will likely bring back the three MLB catchers and groom Hundley for a 2009 full-time starting role.

Hundley was considered the second best defensive catchers in the 2005 draft and improved every year as a hitter while playing at the University of Arizona. The Padres even thought enough of Hundley to take him over the higher regarded Taylor Teagarden.

Former Padres catcher Kottaras had a strong arm but poor footwork and a slow glove-to-hand transfer that downgraded his overall ability to throw out would-be base-stealers. Hundley on the other hand, has an above-average throwing arm and above average transfer ability.

Hundley hit Low-A very well and was passable in Hi-A. Hundley came on strong during the Storm’s late-season playoff push. Nick will likely be back in Lake Elsinore for the first half of 2007 as he could use more time to adjust offensively and get his bat back on the track it was on in Low-A. Another mid-season promotion will likely be in order, this time to AA, if he continues to perform well.

2006 Statistics:

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
.278/.355/.403 – 176 AB, 18 R, 13 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 20 BB, 44 SO, 1 SB, 1 CS

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.274/.355/.474 – 215 AB, 29 R, 59 H, 19 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 25 BB, 45 SO, 1 SB, 1 CS

Check back tomorrow for numbers 1-5.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

PRD's Top 25 Padres Minor League Players (11-15)

The Florida Marlins were in the NL Wild Card hunt until the final season with a $16 million payroll. Padres rookies Adrian Gonzales and Josh Barfield were second and sixth among hitters, respectively in terms of “Value Over Replacement Player” (VORP) and fellow rookies Clay Hensley and Cla Meredith were second and fourth among the pitchers. Virtually every team needs to get meaningful contribution out of its farm in order to do well. Farm players are cheaper, thus allowing the team to spend money in other areas of need.

In addition to the four players mentioned above, the Padres also received contribution from several other Padres rookies. This off-season the Padres will have some $25 million coming off the books. While the Padres will likely be players on the free agent market, they will again need the support of the farm as they look to build on the success of a 88-win repeat-NL West Championship season.

In 2005 the Padres added CEO Sandy Alderson to the helm and he brought in Grady Fuson to run the Padres minor leagues/scouting departments. Since then the Padres have made significant gains in the scouting/development arenas.

Welcome to my top 25. Players will be introduced in reverse order, 5 at a time…

Monday: 21-25
Tuesday: 16-20

Check back if you haven’t already seen those portions of my list.

Thanks for reading.

15. Nicholas Crosta, OF, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: November 17, 1982, 6’2” 215 lbs.

Nic Crosta has a story. In 2001, the Oakland Athletics drafted Nic Crosta in the 39th round out of Highland High School in Seattle, WA (Grady Fuson was the scouting director in Oakland at that time). Then, in 2004, Crosta was coming off a solid junior season at Santa Clara University and was drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 17th round (Grady Fuson, again, was the scouting director of the drafting team). Wanting more money, Nic went back to school for his senior season to improve. That senior year was a poor year and Crosta went undrafted. At that point Nic gave up on baseball. Fast-forward to 2006 and Nic Crosta gives Grady Fuson a phone call and asks to play for Fuson’s new team, the Padres. Fuson tells Crosta that he has room in his organization for him, but no money. Crosta jumps at the offer.

Knowing that Crosta would be playing this season as a 23yr old, the Padres aggressively assigned him to Low-A. Nic promptly showed why Grady was so high on him. In 123 AB, Nic hit .382 with 20 extra-base hits… Expectedly, Crosta’s performance suffered after moving to the more advanced High-A, however he shined in “Close & Late” situations hitting .328/.400/.557 in 61 C&L at-bats in Lake Elsinore.

Nic will likely be challenged with a promotion to Double-A next season. Nic BB/SO ratio is a respectable 55/105 (combining both levels) and when we look at his league totals (26/35 in Low-A and 29/71 in High-A) he could stand to control the strike zone better… Keep in mind Crosta hasn’t played competitive baseball in a year so he is already exceeding expectations.

2006 Statistics:

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
.267/.342/.438 – 281 AB, 42 R, 75 H, 22 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 44 RBI, 29 BB, 71 SO, 4 SB, 0 CS

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.382/.490/.667 – 123 AB, 26 R, 47 H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 26 BB, 35 SO, 2 SB, 2 CS

14. Aaron Breit, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: April 19, 1984, 6’3” 180 lbs.

Twice drafted by the Padres, in 2004 and again in the 12th round of the 2005 draft (he was signed as a “Draft and Follow” prior to the 2006 draft).

Breit has an 88-92 fastball (Aaron flashed some 94’s in college), a curve, and he shelved his splitter for the organizationally mandated changeup.

Aaron was especially impressive down the stretch. In his last five outings, Breit posted a 1.82 ERA over 24.2 IP, with 23 hits, 4 walks, and 20 strikeouts.

A rare power-arm in the Padres system, Breit is someone to watch in 2007.

2006 Statistics:

Short-Season (Eugene):
2-3, 3.08 ERA, 64.1 IP, 60 H, 31 R, 22 ER, 2 HR, 22 BB, 69 SO, 0.92 GO/AO, .250 BAA

13. Felix Carrasco, 3B, Bats: S, Throws: R, Birthday: February 14, 1987, 6’1” 220 lbs.

The Padres have a few third base options in their system who each excite in different ways: Matt Antonelli, a first round pick with phenomenal athleticism but little power (who will likely end up at 2B), David Freese, an older collegiate player with a power bat but limited range defensively, Chase Headley, another collegian draftee with solid all around tools but is not spectacular…

Then there’s Felix Carrasco. In a San Diego Union Tribune article, Grady Fuson said, “…[Felix Carrasco] might be the biggest steal in Latin America.”

Carrasco’s game lacks a lot of polish but he hasn’t flopped. 2006 was Carrasco’s first real taste of organized baseball.

Not surprisingly, Carrasco faded down the stretch, hitting only .208/.300/.340 in August… The switch-hitter also struggled against left-handed pitching (.233/.327/.326). He’s not a top prospect yet, but he deserves watching and the organization is very high on him.

2006 Statistics:

Rookie (AZL Padres):
.273/.347/.424 – 172 AB, 32 R, 47 H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 17 BB, 48 SO, 2 SB, 0 CS

12. Cesar Ramos, SP, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: June 22, 1984, 6’2” 190 lbs.

I happened to be in the Channel 4 booth, when Cesar Ramos was introduced to San Diego fans in June of 2005. He not as tall as he listed…

The 2005 Supplemental 1st round selection, has had an unimpressive career… In 2005, Ramos spun a 6.53 ERA in his 20.2 inning professional debut (Northwest League hitters batted .303 off Ramos). Ramos was then promoted to Low A Fort Wayne and posted a 4.19 ERA in 38.2 IP with a .282 BAA (he combined to allow 69 hits in 59.1 IP while striking out 45 and walking 14.

Despite sub-par numbers, the Padres did not think Ramos needed to go back to Fort Wayne and sent him to Lake Elsinore. Ramos was supposed to be the polished lefty who breezed through the minors. But Ramos has yet to have a stop where he allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, furthermore he’s not striking out hitters. Statistical research shows success highly unlikely with a K/9 rate below 5.5 per 9 innings … Ramos posted a 4.47 K/9 rate in 2006 and has a 4.63 K/9 rate for his 2-season professional career.

Despite poor hit rates and strikeout rates, Ramos is highly regarded by the front office (at least publicly). The Padres suggest that Ramos has had shaky defense behind him and his groundball tendencies are suited more for big league defenses. That’s fine, but Ramos may find success elusive until he starts striking out more than 4.5 hitters per 9 innings.

(This ranking is almost entirely due to continued glowing organizational reports.)

2006 Statistics:

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
7-8, 3.70 ERA, 141.0 IP, 72 R, 58 ER, 9 HR, 44 BB, 70 SO, 1.49 GO/AO, .292 BAA

11. Wade Leblanc, SP, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: August 7, 1984, 6’3” 190 lbs.

Another 2006 draftee (2nd round), Leblanc was Baseball America’s “Freshman of the Year” in 2004 and posted a 2.95 cumulative collegiate ERA. Leblanc is usually described as a back of the rotation starter in part to his lack of velocity (his fast ball usually sits in the mid-80s) but he does have a plus-change.

Wade had the type of season the Padres hoped they would get out of Cesar Ramos in 2005. Leblanc dominated Low A after having a decent showing in the Northwest League.

While we don’t know how many errors were committed behind Leblanc this season, it is encouraging that Wade didn’t allow even a single ‘reached-on-error’ base-runner to score; Leblanc did not allow a single unearned run.

Being a fly-ball pitcher, Leblanc could struggle in Lake Elsinore (or at least on the road). It will be interesting if the Padres promote Wade to the Cal League after only 53.2 professional innings, or bring him back to Fort Wayne before a mid-season promotion…

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
4-1, 2.20 ERA, 32.2 IP, 31 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 1 HR, 10 BB, 27 SO, 0.73 GO/AO, .250 BAA

Short-Season (Eugene):
1-0, 4.29 ERA, 21.0 IP, 19 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 0 HR, 6 BB, 20 SO, 0.85 GO/AO, .250 BAA

Check back tomorrow for numbers 5-10.

PRD's Top 25 Padres Minor League Players (16-20)

The Florida Marlins were in the NL Wild Card hunt until the final season with a $16 million payroll. Padres rookies Adrian Gonzales and Josh Barfield were second and sixth among hitters, respectively in terms of “Value Over Replacement Player” (VORP) and fellow rookies Clay Hensley and Cla Meredith were second and fourth among the pitchers. Virtually every team needs to get meaningful contribution out of its farm in order to do well. Farm players are cheaper, thus allowing the team to spend money in other areas of need.

In addition to the four players mentioned above, the Padres also received contribution from several other Padres rookies. This off-season the Padres will have some $25 million coming off the books. While the Padres will likely be players on the free agent market, they will again need the support of the farm as they look to build on the success of a 88-win repeat-NL West Championship season.

In 2005 the Padres added CEO Sandy Alderson to the helm and he brought in Grady Fuson to run the Padres minor leagues/scouting departments. Since then the Padres have made significant gains in the scouting/development arenas.

Welcome to my top 25. Players will be introduced in reverse order, 5 at a time…

Monday I introduced you to numbers 21-25. Check back if you haven’t already seen that portion of my list.

Thanks for reading.

20. Matthew Buschmann, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: February 13, 1984, 6’3” 215 lbs.

Matt Buschmann, a 15th round pick in 2006 out of Vanderbilt University, was another pleasant late-round surprise for the Padres. Baseball America had this to say about Buschmann before he was drafted,


Buschmann stepped into Vandy's rotation as its Friday starter when David Price hit a slump during the season… He has good makeup and should be a good senior sign for a team looking for a player who could overachieve because of his athleticism and work ethic.

While his college statistics were not overly impressive, his professional debut was. Northwest League hitters batted .242/.300/.354 off Buschmann.

Buschmann features a 2-seam fastball, 4-seam fastball, slider, and change, and generally pitches in the 80’s…

The Padres brought Buschmann, who was drafted as a collegiate senior, up to Lake Elsinore; skipping Low-A Fort Wayne. A 22 year old who will turn 23 about the time pitchers and catcher report, Buschmann may very well skip Low A for good.

2006 Statistics:

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
1-0, 3.55 ERA, 12.2 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 5 SO, 2.27 GO/AO, .205 BAA

Short-Season (Eugene):
3-4, 3.12 ERA, 60.2 IP, 54 H, 26 R, 21 ER, 5 HR, 11 BB, 63 SO, 1.05 GO/AO, .242 BAA

19. Jon Knott, OF, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: August 4, 1978, 6’3” 220 lbs.

Jon Knott, the quintessential Ken Phelps All Star, watched another birthday go by before joining his big league club as a September call-up. Ken Phelps was a “4-A” player who many thought had the ability to perform at the big league level but never got the chance…

Knott is a power hitter and led the Pacific Coast League in home runs (with 32) despite playing his home games in one of the least offense-friendly parks in the league. Last season experts said that Knott wasn’t a prospect because he didn’t hit for a high enough average, struck out too much, didn’t get on-base enough, and played too poorly on defense.

2005: .250/.333/.483

Knowing he needed to work on those things, Knott delivered in virtually every category in 2006. He still doesn’t play very good defense, but he raised his batting average 30 points, he still struck out 100+ times, but did lower his total by 10, (on-base was up 20 points), and for good measure he hit more HR…

Knott is relegated to LF, but it is unlikely the Padres will give him the keys to the starting LF position in 2007. There are rumors that some Japanese teams are interested in Knott. If not, he may get a shot as a bench player.

2006 Statistics:

MLB (San Diego):
.000/.000/.000 – 3 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS

AAA (Portland):
.280/.353/.572 – 479 AB, 80 R, 134 H, 32 2B, 6 3B, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 52 BB, 103 SO, 3 SB, 3 CS

18. Michael Ekstrom, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: August 30, 1983, 6’0” 185 lbs.

Michael Ekstrom is the classic soft-tossing, finesse “lefty;” except he’s right-handed, as a top Padres official described Ekstrom. Ekstrom does not over power hitters, but his numbers remain solid.

The biggest concerns for Ekstrom are that he allowed so many unearned runs to score (Ekstrom allowed 21 unearned runs). When opposing hitters reach base via an error, Ekstrom needs to buckle down and prevent those runs for scoring as well. Secondly, his 2006 season was off to a splendid start in Lake Elsinore but took a sour turn in Mobile. While ERA remained solid, his strikeout rate plummeted (from 7.43 per 9 IP to 5.23/9) and his hit-rate climbed (8.31 hits per 9 IP, to 9.24/9). Ekstrom’s 2006 wasn’t a disaster (how can you call a 3.84 ERA in your first taste of AA-ball a “disaster?”), but he needs to get his hit rate below 9/9 and his strikeout rate above 6/9 (preferably back to that 7.4/9 rate or so) if he wants to be considered a serious prospect…

2006 Statistics:

AA (Mobile):
3-7, 3.84 ERA, 84.1 IP, 87 H, 46 R, 36 ER, 2 HR, 19 BB, 49 SO, 1.62 GO/AO, .261 BAA

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
7-4, 2.30 ERA, 82.1 IP, 76 H, 32 R, 21 ER, 2 HR, 21 BB, 68 SO, 1.51 GO/AO, .251 BAA

17. Chad Huffman, OF, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: April 29, 1985, 6’1” 205 lbs.

Huffman, a 2006 2nd round draft pick, has an athletic family tree. Huffman’s father, Royce, and grandfather, A.J., both played college football at Texas Christian University and his older brothers, Scott and Royce Jr., played football and baseball at TCU and Royce Jr. is now a catcher for the Round Rock Express. Chad is quite the athlete in his own right having played 1B, 2B, 3B, and now LF as well as being a back-up QB in college (yes, at TCU).

The Eugene Emeralds were well stocked at OF/DH this season so initially ABs were hard to come by. But as the season wore on, Huffman emerged as the offensive force on team and finished the season ranked 2nd in the Northwest League in Batting Average, 1st in On-Base Percentage and 2nd in Slugging.

Huffman will begin the 2007 season in Fort Wayne, but could be a mid-season promotion candidate if he duplicates his 2006 season.

2006 Statistics:

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
.214/.313/.357 – 14 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 0 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0 SB, 1 CS

Short-Season (Eugene):
.343/439/.576 – 198 AB, 41 R, 68 H, 17 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 BB, 35 SO, 2 SB, 3 CS

16. Jared Wells, SP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: October 31, 1981, 6’4” 200 lbs.

Wells had an amazing beginning to his 2005 campaign. In the prior off-season Padres’ brass said that Jared was a few small adjustments from taking off as a pitching prospect. And take off he did. Wells posted a 3.44 ERA in 120.1 Cal League innings and only allowed 6 HR in the offense-friendly league. Promoted to AA Mobile mid-2005, Wells still posted a respected ERA, but allowed more hits than IP, and his K/9 regressed to 4.6/9 from 5.98 per 9 in Lake Elsinore. Southern League hitters batted .307 off the Texan… Yet, many called the season a success.

Heading into 2006, Wells needed to regain his respectable 6ish K/9 rate and give up fewer hits. And he did… Then he was promoted. After 61.1 strong Southern League innings, Wells joined the AAA Portland Beavers… Again, after the promotion, he allowed more hits than IP, his BAA climbed back to .296 and again he walked nearly as many as he struck out 46 to 55 in 73 IP.

Wells will likely be back in AAA (he doesn’t have much trade value at the moment) and he has a history of having success the second time he sees a league.

Wells still throws in the low-mid 90’s 94ish on his 4-seam fastball, and 91-2 on more effective 2-seam fastball. His off-speed stuff still needs work and he may end up as a bullpen guy but he could also end up as a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater…

2006 Statistics:

AAA (Portland):2-9, 7.27 ERA, 73.0 IP, 87 H, 66 R, 59 ER, 8 HR, 46 BB, 55 SO, 1.01 GO/AO, .296 BAA

AA (Mobile):
4-3, 2.64 ERA, 61.1 IP, 53 H, 20 R, 18 ER, 4 HR, 27 BB, 49 SO, 1.05 GO/AO, .235 BAA

Check back tomorrow for numbers 11-15.

Monday, October 09, 2006

PRD's Top 25 Padres Minor League Players (21-25)

The Florida Marlins were in the NL Wild Card hunt until the final season with a $16 million payroll. Padres rookies Adrian Gonzales and Josh Barfield were second and sixth among hitters, respectively in terms of “Value Over Replacement Player” (VORP) and fellow rookies Clay Hensley and Cla Meredith were second and fourth among the pitchers. Virtually every team needs to get meaningful contribution out of its farm in order to do well. Farm players are cheaper, thus allowing the team to spend money in other areas of need.

In addition to the four players mentioned above, the Padres also received contribution from several other Padres rookies. This off-season the Padres will have some $25 million coming off the books. While the Padres will likely be players on the free agent market, they will again need the support of the farm as they look to build on the success of a 88-win repeat-NL West Championship season.

In 2005 the Padres added CEO Sandy Alderson to the helm and he brought in Grady Fuson to run the Padres minor leagues/scouting departments. Since then the Padres have made significant gains in the scouting/development arenas.

Welcome to my top 25. Players will be introduced in reverse order, 5 at a time…

Thanks for reading.

***

25. Geoff Vandel, SP, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: June 9, 1987, 6’1” 190 lbs.

Geoff Vandel posted an exceptional 0.58 ERA in his 2005 professional debut between the AZL Padres and 10.0 inning stint in Eugene. Predictably, the Padres sent Vandel back to Eugene to begin his 2006 campaign.

After 11.0 innings with unfortunate results, the Padres sent the young lefty back to Arizona for his second stint with the club.

On August 15th, Vandel had an up-and-down relief-appearance. It was Vandel’s tenth appearance with the AZL Padres, all in relief. Over his next three appearances (all starts – his only AZL starts of the season) Vandel sparkled, going:

16.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 22 SO, 0 HR

…lowering his WHIP from 2.35 to 1.64 and his overall AZL ERA from 6.60 to 3.48. Vandel’s splits suggest he should remain a starter. He had a 6.60 ERA as a reliever and 0.58 ERA as a starter matching his 2005 season ERA.

Vandel throws a fastball that tops out around 90 mph and has a solid change. He also throws a developing curveball. The Padres hope Vandel adds a couple more ticks of velocity as he matures physically. With his moderate stuff, Vandel will probably need the extra velocity in order to succeed at higher levels.

The Padres will likely send Vandel back to Eugene for a second go at the Northwest League in 2007.

2006 Statistics:

Rookie (AZL Padres):
2-0, 3.48 ERA, 31.1 IP, 30 H, 17 R, 12 ER, 1 HR, 10 BB, 33 SO, 0.68 GO/AO, .244 BAA

Short-Season (Eugene):
1-0, 9.82 ERA, 11.0 IP, 19 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 1 HR, 10 BB, 11 SO, 2.00 GO/AO, .388 BAA

24. Sean Thompson, SP, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: October 13, 1982, 5’11” 170 lbs.

Sean Thompson, like many other Padres pitching prospects, had an up-and-down season. On the one hand he posted 3.84 ERA, had a 7.83 K/9 rate, and 1.59 GO/AO rate, on the other hand his record was a disappointing 6-10 and right-handed hitters hit 14 HR off him 114 innings.

Sean Thompson has a nice curveball that was once called “the best breaking pitch in the organization.” But only has average velocity. His ceiling is as a 4th or 5th starter but he’ll more likely be a lefty-specialist out of the ‘pen.

Thompson should move up to AAA in 2007.

2006 Statistics:

AA (Mobile):
6-10, 3.84 ERA, 154.0 IP, 148 H, 79 R, 66 ER, 18 HR, 46 BB, 134 SO, 1.59 GO/AO, .255 BAA

23. Ernesto Frieri, RP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: July 19, 1985

Ernesto Frieri burst onto the scene for the Padres last season with a 1.17 ERA in 46.1 AZL innings. While Frieri unimpressively walked 29, he did that while striking out 59 and only allowing 21 hits.

Flash-forward to 2006; the slender 21 yr. old was not as impressive in his follow-up season, but he did do well. He still walks too many 23 in 44+ innings, but he still doesn’t allow very many hits. Despite being right-handed he is particularly tough on left-handed hitters: 10 hits in 18.7 IP.

Ernesto works off a 90-92 fastball and changeup. He has a breaking pitch, but doesn’t like to use it much.

Ernesto has seen brief stints in both Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He’ll likely split time between the two in 2007.

2006 Statistics:

Short-Season (Eugene)
3-3, 3.82 ERA, 37.2 IP, 31 H, 18 R, 16 ER, 3 HR, 15 BB, 38 SO, 0.82 GO/AO, .231 BAA

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
0-0, 9.00 ERA, 1.0 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, 1 SO, 2.00 GO/AO, .333 BAA

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
0-0, 6.00 ERA, 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 4 SO, 1.33 GO/AO, .348 BAA

22. Neil Jamison, RP, Bats: R, Throws: R, Birthday: August, 4, 1983, 6’3” 185 lbs.

Neil Jamison’s claim to fame was that he posted a 0.00 ERA as collegiate closer his junior year. While he’s not having the same level success in professional baseball, he is doing well.

As a right-hander with average velocity and without a dominant pitch, Jamison predictably struggles against left-handed hitting (lefties hit .303 off Jamison and 11 of his 15 BB are to lefties).

Despite Neil’s success closing in college and compiling 31 saves in the Cal League this year, Jamison profiles most accurately as a set-up guy in the Majors.

2006 Statistics:

High-A (Lake Elsinore):
5-6, 3.31 ERA, 65.1 IP, 63 H, 30 R, 24 ER, 10 HR, 15 BB, 62 SO, 1.00 GO/AO, .248 BAA

Low-A (Fort Wayne):
0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 9 SO, 0.00 GO/AO, 0.77 BAA

21. Orlando Lara, SP, Bats: L, Throws: L, Birthday: May 20, 1985, 5’10” 185 lbs.

One of the brightest stars mined from the Padres’ extensive scouting in Mexico, Lara had a dominant season as a 20 year old in the Northwest League. Lara was 12th in the League in strikeouts but each pitcher with a greater total had at least 13 more innings pitched. He ranked second in the league in K/9 with 11.27 per 9 IP (of those with a minimum of 35 IP). Furthermore he was 10th in fewest hits allowed per 9 IP (7.07/9 IP).

While his stuff is not exceptional, his 2006 performance was. He needs to continue to work and develop to truly become a top prospect.

Lara should make his full-season Padres’ debut in Fort Wayne next year (although if skipped Low-A and went straight to High-A it wouldn’t be a surprise). This year was not a flash-in-the-pan either; he put up strong numbers in a Mexican league in 2005.

2006 Statistics:

Short-Season (Eugene):
2-1, 3.23 ERA, 47.1 IP, 37 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 4 HR, 14 BB, 59 SO, 0.88 GO/AO, .216 BAA

***

Check back tomorrow for numbers 16-20.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Game 4 Report

The first two losses sucked. We didn’t execute… In Game 4, the Padres held Pujols in check 0 for 3 with a walk (he scored in the sixth after leading off the inning with a that walk).

If I told you before the game that we would hold Pujols hitless in three at-bats, and only allow seven hits and two walks, you would probably take it. I would.

However, the Cardinals racked up two of their hits (mixing in a hit-by-pitch and a walk) in their 2-run first inning. The Cardinals then got 3 more hits (mixing in their other walk, a Padre fielding error, and a squeeze-bunt by Eckstein) in their 4-run sixth inning.

The only hitting category where St. Louis had the advantage was in extra-base hits. San Diego had one (Ryan Klesko’s pinch-hit double in the ninth) and St. Louis had two (a double by Yadier Molina in the first and scorer’s gift-triple off Juan Encarnacion’s bat – it was a double and he advanced to third on the throw home in the decisive sixth inning).

Like I said, the first two losses sucked, on its own, this one was easier to take. Unfortunately the three losses knocked our Padres out of the playoffs.

Last season’s Padres were ridiculed for backing into the playoffs with an 82-80 season. This pre-season, Las Vegas set the over/under on our win total at 78 and all the experts said it would be a Los Angeles-San Francisco fight for the NL West. Personally, I thought the Padres would battle the Dodgers for the NL West title (lucky guess I suppose) while winning approximately 85 wins… If you told me before the season the NL West would be won with 88 wins I wouldn’t have been surprised but I would not have expected the Padres to be repeat NL West champions.

My hat is off the Padres on their 2006 season. It was more than the experts expected, and more than I expected.

As we start to think about the Padres 2007 season, keep in mind that the Padres will be getting virtually all of their best players back while taking roughly $25 million off the books. San Diego should be an even better team next year.

Congratulations to the Cardinals and good luck against New York.

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Game 3 Notes

Runners on second and third and no outs… And the Padres failed to score, again.

The Padres have made a season out of poor situational hitting. Now I don’t think the Padres should start bunting the ball over all, and ‘giving themselves up.’ But when the Padres have an opportunity to sac-fly a runner home, or advance the hitter (not by bunting, but by trying to get a hit and making certain to bat the ball “behind” the runner) they need to execute.

Yes, I’m nit-picking, but the Padres have already lost two games in this series. And in both games, the Padre hitters had many chances to put runs on the board and failed… The Padres went 1 for 13 with men in scoring position on Saturday and 1 for 23 overall (the only RBI-hit was Russel Branyan’s RBI triple in Saturday’s game. Blum did have an RBI sac-fly in Saturday and Giles had one in San Diego on Tuesday. Based on luck, the Padres should go 8 for 8 with men in scoring position on Sunday.

Yet, we won. And that’s what matters most.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Game 2 Report

David Wells’ Game 2 line:

5.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR, 69 pitches

It’s a shame Wells’ solid outing went to waste…

During the television coverage of the game, ESPN showed a televised a pre-recorded interview of manager Bruce Bochy. In the interview, Bochy said something to the effect that (paraphrasing), “We know [Albert Pujols] is a monster…”

Yet, with a man on second and first base open, Bruce did not call for a 4-pitch free pass. Pujols is now 5 for 8 (.625) with a 2B and a HR… In case you wondered, 3 singles, 1 double, and that HR work out to a 1.125 slugging rate.

Now, when Pujols comes to the plate with the bases empty, sure, pitch to him…

Edmunds is 3 for 7…
Rolen is 1 for 7
Encarnacion 3 for 7

While those three batters have combined to hit combined to hit .333, they collective have one extra-base hit - a double.

While those three are all decent hitters and dangerous in their own right, none of them are even potentially MVP candidates. Pujols, as you know, is one of two guys who will win the award this season. The Padres need to treat Pujols the way most teams treated Barry a few years ago.

I participated in Ducksnorts.com’s In-Game Discussion and “Richard” pointed out some interesting statistics…

The Padres put the ball in play 25 times. In those 25 plays, the Cardinals converted 84% of ‘balls in play’ into outs… The Padres led all of baseball in turning ‘balls in play’ into outs at about 71% (BaseballProspectus.com wouldn’t load at the time of publishing)… On the other hand, despite scoring only 2 runs, the Padres only converted 66% of the Cardinals’ ‘balls in play’ into outs.

So not only did the Padres make the mistake of pitching to Pujols, they were unlucky. There is simply no way to convert 84% of ‘balls in play’ on the strength of a team’s defense. The Padres were unlucky.

Down two games in a five-game series is not insurmountable, but it is daunting. The good news is luck turns. Luck evens out… But with only five games do the Padres have enough to woo Lady Luck to their dugout?

***
One last thing: in Game 2’s In-Game Discussion, a lot of us voiced displeasure with the umpires’ calls. It looked like Weaver was getting a lot of strike calls that Boomer was not getting. However, I couldn’t find one report or quote suggesting the Padres thought they were getting the raw end of the balls-and-strikes calls. I can’t help but wonder if the view from the CF camera was compounded by the trajectories from one right-handed pitcher compared to one from a left-handed pitcher… It looks like we were griping about nothing.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Well That Sucked...

While the Game 1 loss was disappointing, we have to keep it in perspective. One, the Padres have not lost back-to-back games in September 8-9. Two, the Padres scored got beat by the reigning NL Cy Young winner who will likely be top 3 finisher (and possibly back-to-back winner) in this year’s Cy Young race. Three, while we will probably get a second crack at Chris Carpenter in Game 4, the Cardinals will have to use Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and/or Anthony Reyes (with their 4.12, 5.75, and 5.06 respective ERAs) in games 2 and 3 and potentially game 5.

As long as the Padres don’t get too low they should be fine. After all, the Padres rebounded well after the Dodgers went back-to-back-to-back-to-back on them.

I repeatedly defended Bruce Bochy even though he frequently makes in-game decisions I disagree with (he's so good at handling a clubhouse I think he makes up for his strategic short-comings). Tonight he made a move I have to question (well a couple related ones really):

First, I should have brought this pre-game so it doesn’t like sour grapes, but too late for that now… Despite Piazza’s excellence this season, I thought starting Bard made a lot of sense on Tuesday (we’ll get back to this). In the 7th inning with runners at 1B and 3B, and with switch-hitting Geoff Blum at the plate and Tyler Johnson heading to the mound, Bochy pulled Blum in favor of pinch-hitter Josh Bard.

Now regardless of the success of that move, Bochy would need a pinch-hitter in the 8th spot in the batting order (Bochy had already double-switched and had the pitcher batting 8th). After Bard was hit by a pitch to load the bases, Bochy used Mark Bellhorn, another switch-hitter (like Blum and Bard) to pinch hit for the pitcher. Bellhorn, who probably should not have been on the playoff roster, predictably struck out.

While the Padres needed more than one run, they had gotten into the Cardinal bullpen (by far their weakest link). The key for the Padres wasn’t getting a three-run HR (though that would have been great), the Padres needed runs. Getting a fly-ball sac-fly would have closed the gap to 5-2, emboldened the Padre hitters and provided a “here we go again,” attitude for the Cardinals… Leaving Blum in the game to hit in the 7-hole would have allowed Bard to hit 8th and left the light-hitting Bellhorn (.190/.285/.344) on the bench.

Back to my theory that Bard should have started. The Cardinals have several lefty-relievers. Had Bard started in the place of Piazza, the threat of Piazza as a pinch-hitter could have hampered LaRussa’s bullpen usage or caused to LaRussa to burn through the Cardinal relievers more quickly. As it was, Tyler Johnson was effective in getting four outs before handing the ball to Adam Wainwright for the 9th.

Let’s go back to the 7th inning situation: one out with runners on 1st and 3rd… After LaRussa calls on Tyler Johnson to face Blum (let’s assume another HBP which is what happened to Bard in this situation), Bochy now has Piazza to pinch-hit. Assuming Bochy does use Piazza here, LaRussa would have likely countered with a right-handed reliever then another left-handed reliever to face Walker, Roberts, and Giles. While you don’t want to bench your best hitter just so you can use him one time, Carpenter is good enough that starting Bard could have paid dividends later.

Well enough hand wringing. Let’s take Game 2!