Another QS from B-Law & Some College Hitters

8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO. 0 HR, 99 pitches

You would expect that line from last night’s starter, but not from Brian Lawrence.

Wow. Another reason why we need to look at stats over a longer period as opposed to a short one… Look, B-Law is not Cy Young reincarnate. He never will be. But who of you knew that B-Law had pitched a “quality start” in 3 of his 5 starts?

Hey Sean, see, Major League Baseball history is made on the inside pitch.

***

In my previous interview with Kevin Goldstein, I mentioned that I’m stathead “every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.” After I wrote that and after the interview, I realized that it might not be perceived the way I intended. What I meant, was that I don’t have scouting background so I rely on stats. As someone who follows baseball VERY closely, I value both types of analysis; I just tend to perform one type of analysis and talk to people like Kevin to get the latter.

Now that we got that out of the way, I wanted to look at some college hitters who seasons suggest they could be players taken around when the Padres pick at 18, 35, 68, 78, & 99. Again, to make sure I’m not misunderstood, I do think the Padres should take the best players available; high school or college, I just don’t have the ability or the information to look at any of the high school players… Additionally some of the guys mentioned will not have the right tools to perform at higher levels thus may end their baseball careers at the colligate ranks despite impressive numbers.

Without further ado:

Trevor Crowe, Jr. OF, Arizona

This switch-hitting outfielder doesn’t profile (statistically) to have the power of some of the other guys, but his numbers definitely give us reason take notice. Crowe does have 7 HR, and 20 2B so the power may be there, but it’s his speed (8 3B & 18-for-22 in stolen base attempts) that makes me think that his power might be a product of the aluminum bats. Encouragingly, Crowe also is patient and can take a walk (27/24 BB/SO ratio). Interestingly, Crowe’s dad was a professional golfer. Crowe is probably not a player for one of the top Padre selections, but he’ll likely get some later-round consideration.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Jr. OF, Oregon St. Univ.

Ellsbury is batting .451/.546/.673. He doesn’t have the power I’d prefer to see, but he has the 4th best BA in the country to go with the 6th best OBP. Furthermore, he’s sporting an amazing 25/8 BB/SO ratio. Ellsbury has hit quite a few doubles; 12, and he does have 6 HR, so he still may further develop his power, and I have heard about him as a legit first-round prospect.

Kris Harvey, Jr. OF/1B/RHP, Clemson

Harvey is batting .364/.418/.721 with 17 HR (co-leading in college baseball). His BB/SO rate is worrisome (15/29) but the power is there. He doesn’t project to be a first round guy, but someone who could be nice prospect somewhere in the 2-5 rounds. His pitching background is useful in the field as his bio claims Baseball America rated his arm as the best outfield arm in the ACC and the 48th best Jr. in the country.

Chase Headley, Jr. OF/3B/1B, Tennessee

I can’t remember if I’ve heard about Headley as a prospect, but his numbers are eye-popping (.386/.545/.689). Maybe most impressive of all, Headley is sporting a 48/15 BB/SO ratio – WOW! Obviously numbers can’t tell us if he has the bat-speed to succeed at higher levels of play and with a wood bat, but he plays in the competitive SEC and has hit 13 2B and 12 HR. He’s listed at 3B but has 14 errors, so he probably profiles more accurately as 1B/OF type. He’s still young for a college junior; he’ll turn 21 this May.

Jeff Larish, Sr. 1B/3B, Arizona State

Jeff Larish meet Rob Deer. Larish is the classic all or nothing hitter. He’s hitting .331/.457/.704 with 16 HR and 13 2B. To complete the “all or nothing” profile, Larish has walked 37 times and struck out 41 times. His strikeout totals are VERY worrisome, but his power and hitting ability are unquestioned. The Dodgers control his rights, but he’s likely to still be playing late enough in the season to prevent the Dodgers from getting him under contract.

Ryan Patterson, Sr. OF, Louisiana State

This senior outfielder was drafted by Atlanta in 2002. He’s a co-leader in the college baseball home run title chase (17). But his numbers also show other areas of excellence. In addition to the HR total, he has 18 2B, and a 20/16 BB/SO ratio. I have heard his name among those to watch this year. As noted above, he’s a senior, so he has less negotiating power so a team looking to get some production without spending a lot may draft him early. Even without being a “value” pick, he merits consideration in the top few rounds.

Jason Twomley, Sr. OF, Massachusetts

Twomley is another lefty OF prospect. He’s not overly large (6’0” 215lbs.) but he has obvious power ranking first in college baseball in slugging (.898) and OPS (1.425) – that’s stupid, video-game good. Overall he’s hitting .398/.527/.898. He’s not a hitter that I recall hearing about as top prospect, but his numbers merit a look. He’s a senior, so he’s older; he’ll turn 23 in September this year. And thus he’d come cheap. I’d be surprised if he fell out of the top 5 rounds.

Ryan Braun, Jr. 3B/OF, Miami

My friends tease me for talking about a Hurricane as a prospect. In addition to baseball, I’m also a huge College Football fan and the Miami Hurricanes are my favorite team. Anyway, I wrote previously about Braun and I’d still love to see the Padres take him or someone like him with the 18th and/or 35th selection. Ryan is currently hitting .425/.523/.771 with 13 HR and 12 2B and a 23/20 BB/SO ratio.

This is not an exhaustive (or even one even close to it). This is just a quick look at some top offensive college hitters. Boyd Nation’s excellent website, BoydsWorld.com, was where I got the hitters’ rankings. Boyd also links to virtually every team’s statistics and schedule pages.

Pulling Off

I have watched quite a few games this year. Tonight, after getting 17 hits through 11 innings, I’ve noticed one thing; the Padre hitters are consistently pulling off pitches on the outside of the plate. If you’re going to swing at a pitch on the outside part of the plate, you look to drive it the other way. I’m seeing far too many pull-type swings on pitches that should be hit the other way. Depressing.

In other news Jake was his typical self.

8.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 1 HR, 115 pitches

I’m doing an all “Under 24” team with loyal reader and frequent analytical contributor Paul Reams. We’re making alternating picks down the lineup. He had the first choice for a right-handed starter and chose Jake Peavy. We’ll present the whole thing in the next couple weeks.

I’m staying up to watch the end of the game, but not to write about it. I’ve said my piece.

Larry on 1

Good news, the Padres didn’t fall further out of first today. The bad news is, it took an off day to get that good news.

In other news, apparently ESPN and The Sporting News (p. 41 of the May 6, 2005 print magazine) both thought to do a piece on Padres’ hiring of Sandy Alderson as CEO. …This just in…

I was thinking about what to write tonight and I decided I should take a look at the team statistics and see what kind of picture they painted…

I found a few trends worth noting.

First, let’s look at hitting:

- Surprisingly, the Padres are 6th in HR with 22
- Not surprisingly (and unfortunately) they’re 14th in BA at .242
- Despite doing well in the long-ball department, they rank 12th in team slugging
- In large part due to their low BA the Padres are 10th in team on-base percentage at .330
- Combining OBP & SLG for their OPS shows the Padres in 11th at .721
- Yet somehow the Padres are 7th in Runs with 98

What can we learn from those stats? Despite playing their home games in park seemingly built for doubles, the Padres aren’t hitting them. Furthermore, their just not getting enough hits.

Now let’s look at pitching:

- The Padres are middle-of-the-pack in HR allowed; tied for 7th with 19
- The staff is showing signs of dominance ranking 4th in SO with 148 (in 193.1 IP)
- They are so-so when it comes to handing out free passes; 7th in BB issued
- Unfortunately the Padres are giving up lots of XBH; they rank 10th in slugging allowed
- To go along with an average level of walks, the team allows an 8th place on-base percentage
- Somehow despite only one ranking being better than 7th, the Padres have the 6th best ERA: 4.00

Now one last stat. Despite having a team ERA of 4.00 and getting – here’s the kicker – 4.56 runs of support per game, the Padres are 9-13. The Padres lead the league in un-earned runs with 15; more than 1 run per loss.

“Larry, Sandy Alderson is holding for you line one.”

Change Starts at the Top

When you have been working out for a while using the same routine, and your improvements stagnate, you need to change your workouts.

When a pitcher regularly fails to hold runners on first base and allows them to steal second at will, he needs to vary (change) his timing to the plate.

Bruce Bochy has had a distinguished career here in San Diego. I’ll go so far as to say the Padres should consider retiring his number. Not for his playing career, but because he proved to be an asset in developing young talent, nurturing older talent, and putting on a good face when talent was scarce.

While Bruce deserves reverence here in San Diego, it’s also time to show him the door.

The ‘pen isn’t holding leads like it should. The hitters aren’t hitting. And other than Peavy’s brilliance the rotation isn’t consistent – well Redding and Lawrence are consistently bad…

We can’t trade Phil or Ryno. And we shouldn’t trade Nady, Loretta, Greene, or Peavy. Eaton and Linebrink may have some value but if we still want to get back into the playoff hunt, those aren’t the guys to send packing. Furthermore the Padres’ farm system isn’t brimming with talent and most of the talented guys at the top play positions where we have needs.

The point is, there are so many positional needs on the Padres that the only change that would shake things up across the board is a managerial one.

Players don’t need to ‘fear’ their manager, but a healthy dose of accountability to their manager is essential. Players should fear for their jobs. Bochy has become everyone’s friend. He’s their big brother rather than their dad.

When I was in college, my Management professor, Bruce Schooling, said that management was, “The art of getting things done through people.” And right now the Padres aren’t getting things done.

When I was driving home from Lake Elsinore Monday night, I heard Bob Scanlan and Coach John Kentera talk about Larry Dierker, former Manager of the Houston Astros. They didn’t talk about him as a Bochy-replacement, but that’s the guy I would love to see manning the Padres dugout.

Nevin Waking Up?

“…and patience is better than pride.” – Ecclesiastics 7:8b (NIV)

Part of me just loves it when a player I’ve derided comes around and has an impact game.

We didn’t get the win, but Nevin is showing signs of life.

In other news…

Eaton’s line from Tuesday night:

6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER. 3 BB. 6 SO, 0 HR, 106 pitches

Not a dominant outing, like the two Peavy’s spun in his most recent starts, but before the season a lot of people (myself included) thought Eaton and Klesko were the keys to the season.

So far this season Eaton has the following numbers:

5 G, 27.2 IP, 28 H, 1 HR, 10 BB, 21 SO, .257 BA, 2.93 ERA

No one will confuse those numbers with Cy Young’s but it is an encouraging first five games. The one number (which is not shown above) that is discouraging is Eaton’s pitches-per-inning. Eaton is throwing a career-high 18.5 pitches per inning.

Eaton’s focal-point partner for the 2005 season, Ryan Klesko, is also off to a quietly solid start.

So far this season Ryno is hitting .269/.410/.493 with 6 2B and 3 HR. If we assume this level of production for the season we could expect 39 2B and 18 HR. I dare say a lot of people will be disappointed if Klesko doesn’t hit 25+ HR. However, a .902 OPS is nothing to shake a stick at. Furthermore, Ryan is walking more often than he’s striking out. (15-12). I would like to Ryan get a few more hits and raise that .269 average, but I can’t complain.

Conversely Brian Lawrence is leaving lots of room for complaining…

B-Law’s line from Sunday:

2.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO, 1 HR, 56 pitches

Sometimes analysis is quite simple… Brutal.

Unfortunately, B-Law isn’t the only one letting the team down. Look at the following numbers and guess the Friar:

.280/.385/.317
.213/.253/.400
.225/.367/.437
.281/.373/.298

Those lines belong to (in order) Loretta, Nevin, Giles, and Burroughs. I fully expect the first three to come around, but Burroughs is scaring me. A sub-.300 slugging rate? That’s unacceptable.

I read an account (in Baseball America in all likelihood) of the AAA All Star game a few years back. The writer was discussing the batting practice session before the home run derby. And Sean (who wasn’t a derby participant) was described as one of two hitters who consistently hit the ball harder than most of the other hitters in the cage. For whatever reason, since getting to San Diego, Sean has neglected to incorporate his lower half into his swing. He almost resembles a guy talking “soft-toss” batting practice tosses while honing his swing.

***

In other news I mentioned that I was at the Lake Elsinore game Monday night. We (my oft-mentioned friend Paul and I) had a good time. We sat about 5 rows behind home plate and got to watch the Lake Elsinore defense implode behind Jered Wells. Jered himself made one error (of judgment if not so regarded on the scorecard) and his fielders also let one fly ball hit the ground in what should have been an fairly easy out.

Wells line for the night:

1.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR (I don’t have data on number of pitches)

Wells dived trying to glove-scoop the ball to first after not picking up the ball. Apparently Wells thought the ball was going to roll foul. When it didn’t he tried to make a last ditch effort to get an out. In doing so, Wells aggravated a previous injury. Neither the previous injury, nor the subsequent aggravation thereof, are believed to be serious.

The highlights of the night were watching George Kottaras, C, and Rancho Cucamunga’s double-play combo of Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood. Al three are legit prospects. Wood in particular put on a show hitting a DEEP double into the left-field power alley that makes Petco’s right-field power alley wimpy.

Much like Wood, Kottaras always seemed to hit the ball hard. Whether he was fouling a ball into the stands, lining out, and smoking his own double, Kottaras made consistent, hard contact. It’s easy to see why people are so high on him.

***

In my last post I said I’d clarify my comments regarding Phil Nevin. I think Phil will come around. In 2001, when Phil hit 41 HR, he posted a .976 OPS, since then:

2002 – .757
2003 – .826
2004 – .860

So far this year Nevin has a .653 OPS. I don’t think Nevin will spend the entire season south of .700 (let alone .800). Nor do I think Phil will match his 2001 career-high. I could even see Phil regressing some from last to in-between the .860 he posted last year and the .826 in 2003.

Phil is getting older and his age and injury history don’t bode well for future production but he should be ok this year.

OK, so why did I talk about trading him or replacing him? Because I’m impulsive; hence, the Bible verse at the top of the page…

It’s late – I’m going to bed – I’ll talk about Bochy tomorrow.

Sorry...

Sorry I haven't posted in a few days. Today's post will be short, but I wanted to at least thank you all for stopping by and tell you to come back tomorrow, I'll have much more to say.

I need to follow-up on my Phil Nevin comments.

I'm beginning to wonder about replacing Bochy - I haven't decided, I'm just thinking about it.

My good friend Paul is in town from New York. We went to a Lake Elsenore game Monday night, and I have some comments.

Then of course, since my last post B-Law looked less than special in Arizona and Woody was solid in 'Frisco.

And on the Padrers post-game show Monday night, Scanlan talked about how statistically unlikely it was for a sub-.500 April team to make the playoffs. Apparently math is a fine subject for a guy who played baseball but it isn't so great for a guy who never played professionally... Or at least according to Randy Jones...

It's late - talk to you all again later.

Rave: Peavy / Rant: Media

To review:

On Monday, April 18th, I wrote:

Do you want to know how to identify a truly dominant pitching performance when
you see one?

Here are the indicators:

1. More strikeouts than innings pitched
2. Fewer than 1 BB per every 3 SO
3. Fewer hits than innings pitched
4. Two or fewer runs allowed
5. Zero home runs allowed
6. Seven+ innings pitched
7. Fewer than 110 pitches thrown

Check, check, check, check, check, check, and check.

Folks we have it, a dominant start from one of the most dominant starters in baseball.

Peavy’s line from the night:

7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 SO, 0 HR, 98 pitches

Peavy has just been sick.

Peavy’s season numbers so far:

4 G, 2-0, 1.30 ERA, 27.2 IP, 4 BB, 32 SO

Wow!

…Yet we lost.

This offense has to come alive.

I’m going to go on a tangent here – don’t worry; I’ll get back to my point.

I was listening to ESPN radio recently and I heard some “local expert” suggesting that we shouldn’t expect anything more than mediocrity from the Padres (or worse). After all, he argued, Towers claimed he would spend more after the ballpark opened but that hasn’t come to fruition. …Or so the “expert” argued. The “expert” brought up one piece of “evidence” in his support, that Towers only had $4m to upgrade the pitching this past off-season. Note that the “expert” didn’t claim the Padres only “spent” $4m, he said Towers only “had” $4m to upgrade the staff.

Let’s look at this a little closer:

The Padres signed Woody Williams for $3m.
The Padres signed Chris Hammond for $750,000.
The Padres signed Dennys Reyes for $550,000.
The Padres signed Rudy Seanez for $550,000.
And, the Padres had a one-year offer on the table for David Wells of over $5m.

Furthermore, the Padres gave a pretty significant raise to the ever-impressive Jake Peavy.

Add it all up (even without Peavy’s raise) and that’s just a shade under $10m to upgrade the staff.

And that sums up my beef with most mainstream media types. They don’t care about being right. They just want to make sound bites to impassion the fans (positively or negatively) so people will pay attention (and stay tuned) so they can sell more advertisements.

The reality is, we don’t want the Padres spending for the sake of spending. Having a larger budget gives greater room for errors (you can spend money to fix mistakes) but it doesn’t ensure success.

Good decision-making does ensure success.

Getting off the tangent and back to my first thought… Since Towers didn’t spend all the money he had available for him, we should be able to look for a way to correct some shortfalls on the team. Except, what kind of move could we make? Our farm isn’t that fertile at the moment. A trade would feel more expensive since we don’t have a lot top prospects close to the majors…

Now, even if we could make a trade, what position would we trade for? Our worst performing hitter has to be Phil Nevin (.208/.244/.389). So do we tell Phil that we have to make a move and that he’ll be relegated to the bench? Or, do we up and cut Phil? Am I being too rash? Maybe I am.

The big problem is that poor decision-making led to no-trade clauses for aging players (as if anyone would want Phil or Ryno anyway).

Phil is a much more accomplished hitter than he’s shown so far. There’s no reason he’ll continue to be THIS bad. Is there?

In other news, Dave Roberts went 0-fer… Again, he’s awesome when he’s on, I just fear he won’t be on base often enough.

On an almost non-baseball note, I went to see “Fever Pitch” tonight with my wife and her parents; good flick. Not great, but no-where near as “too cute” that I feared it would be.

Who's on first? Who's in the box? & Padres win!

I was listening to Colin Cowherd’s “The Herd” on ESPNradio this morning (AM 800 in San Diego). Colin was arguing a point that I have championed for years. Colin said that General Mangers, even more than players or coaches (or in baseball, the manager), are more to credit or blame for teams’ successes and failures. I couldn’t agree more!

If only I had Colin’s forum…

That is why Oakland has been good for a long time; Billy Beane, their GM, has continuously made the correct decision regarding player personnel (well, not every time, but nearly so).

One point Colin elaborated on was that teams built themselves cheaply through the their league’s draft (he was not only talking about Theo and MLB, but also the NFL and NBA).

Major League Baseball’s draft is set up such that when a team signs a free agent (it’s more complex than this, but I’m not going to get into that much detail) they’ll forfeit a top-3 round draft pick to the team that lost a free agent. While signing two free agents, Theo lost picks #28 and 78. But he has also acquired picks #23, 26, 42, 45, 47, and 59. It’s likely that Boston will spend $5mil on those 6 picks. It’s even more likely that at least two of those picks will become solid Major League players. That’s money well invested.

Furthermore, Theo is not sandbagging when he claims he cannot compete with the Yankees on the free agent market. But nor does he cry poor; he knows he has arguably the second best revenue in baseball.

So as George goes after seemingly every high-dollar free agent on the market, Theo goes after a select few. Then he collects extra picks with which he can trade emerging talent for proven talent and promotes select top prospects as he sees fit.

Colin went on to talk about Boston and how Theo Epstein was simply better than his competition and that Theo was the reason Boston will compete for another World Series this year and will continue to be a top-echelon team as long as Theo is in charge in Bean-town.

I was beginning to think Colin had a man-crush.

My personal top 6 GMs in the business (listed alphabetically):

Billy Beane
Brian Cashman
Paul DePodesta
Theo Epstein
Walt Jockerty
John Schuerholz

I’ll comment briefly on each.

Billy Beane (Oakland) – Billy isn’t the father of the statistical-oriented managerial style, he’s just the best at it and one who’s most public in its execution. If I did rank the GMs, he’d be at the top.

Brian Cashman (New York) – You could argue that with King George’s money any GM could be good. And you’d be right; except that other GMs before Cashman weren’t successful with King George’s money. Cashman is in the un-enviable position where if he signs or acquires a particular player George gets the credit and if a trade/signing flops, he gets the blame. Brian has talked George out of several moves that would have hurt the Yankees. I think George’s penchant for change will cost Brian his job. Brian’s departure will cost George some wins.

Paul DePodesta (Los Angeles Dodgers) – Someone I’m accused of having a man-crush for. Lots of “statheads” claim that, “Clutch hitting doesn’t exist.” What statistics have told us is that statistics can’t find evidence of its existence. DePodesta’s Harvard degree is in Industrial Psychology. I almost expect that DePodesta has found the evidence and he isn’t telling anyone. If he hasn’t, Paul’s Harvard degree probably argues in favor of a psychological predisposition for ‘coming through in the clutch.’ Paul’s tutelage under Beane and the Dodgers’ NL West Championship in his first year at the helm earn this ranking.

Theo Epstein (Boston) – The “Boy Wonder” built the team that ended “The Curse.” Theo ignored statheads who said trading Nomar for Cabera was foolhardy. He definitely takes a statistical-oriented approach, but he also incorporates a lot of traditional scouting into his decision-making.

Walt Jockerty (St. Louis) – One of two GMs on my list who rely almost solely on traditional scouting. Walt (and John) just does it better.

John Schuerholz (Atlanta) – As a reformed Braves fan (or is it just that I’ve lived in San Diego too long) I still struggle with nearly every decision John makes, but with the Braves run of 13 straight and my contention (and Colin’s) that GMs earn the lion’s share of the credit and blame, I must give credit where credit is due.

How does our own GM, Kevin Towers, stack up? I don’t think he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with the above – though Colin did bring him up when he talked about some of the smarter GMs in baseball. But I would “guestimate” that he’s near the middle but in my top half.

Looking back at Towers’ successes and failures… KT lucked into Loretta. He oversaw quite a few lackluster drafts. He signed two post-30 1B/LF/DH-types to contracts with “no-trade” clauses. And he’s traded away quite a bit of talent…

On the other hand, he and his staff had the foresight to go after Khalil Greene, he bottom-fed for Phil Nevin, Jason Bay, Dennis Tankersley, Brad Baker, and others. He traded for Finley, Camineti, an in-his-prime Kevin Brown, Trevor Hoffman, Adam Eaton, and Ryan Klesko.

Kevin Towers’ track record is certainly a mixed bag. I’m thrilled that the man (Sandy Alderson) who taught Billy “the way” is now KT’s boss.

***

Baseball is funny.

Eaton’s line from Thursday night:

5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR, 104 pitches

Not a dominant outing… But we’ll take the win. Eaton now has a 2.91 ERA. Lots of people argue that, “As Klesko and Eaton go, so go the Padres.” On that note, Eaton’s ERA will come up some, and he hasn’t looked that sharp, but it is encouraging none-the-less.

What’s more encouraging is the big four’s (Loretta, Giles, Nevin and Klesko) combined 7-for-14 with 2 BB.

A split with the Dodgers isn’t what I had mind either. But let’s look at this another way. Would you be satisfied with a 51-30 home win-loss record? Me too. Right now the Padres are 5-3 at home. And they just completed a 3-1 home stand.

Yeah, I feel better now too.

***

One last note: this blog may be moving soon. Or I may be writing somewhere else in addition to this blog. I’ve been approached to contribute to another site. We’ll see. I’d love feedback on the subject.

Ugh, it’s late – goodnight.

Dodgers dodge another loss...

(The title was writen before the end of the game - so hopefully the Padres came back as well.)

Woody Williams’ line from the night:

7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR, 106 pitches

I just watched Jose Hernandez hit that 2-run triple. Dang! Now it’s the Padres turn to come back.

I’m shutting it down early tonight – I’m beat. I’ll write more tomorrow.

Father Alderson on Mission to Help Padres

I said I’d write more about the Sandy Alderson acquisition later, so…

My friend Paul ingeniously pointed out that Moores has assembled quite a large percentage of Oakland’s former brain-trust in Alderson and Fuson (though Fuson’s acquisition probably had more to do with Towers’ bidding than Moores).

Under Alderson it will be a lot less likely that the Padres will saddle themselves with bad contracts such as the ones Klesko and Nevin have. In the UT article I had previously quoted (and intended to link – sorry) Alderson replied to a question asking about his worst business moves as, "Signing almost any player to a multiyear contract.”

Let’s look at some of Oakland’s recent Signings/Non-signings:

1. After the 2001 season, Billy Beane decided to let Jason Giambi, 2000 AL MVP, move on (Jason played 2001 as a 30 year old)

2. Just like Jason, Miguel Tejada was allowed to leave following the season after he won the AL MVP (“Miggy” won it in 2002 and left after the 2003 season – he played ’03 as a 27 year old)

3. Eric Chavez was re-signed after his solid season in 2003 when he played as a 25 year old

4. Tim Hudson was traded in the off-season (this past off-season) with one season left to play on his contract. He will play out this season as a 29 year old

5. Mark Mulder was also traded this off-season, though unlike Hudson, Mark’s current contract runs through 2006. He’ll play 2006 as a 28 year old.

***

Understand that baseball players peak at 27-28 years old. Not one player who had already reached his peak was re-signed. The one player that was re-signed has a contract that allows the A’s to retain his services through him turning 31 years old. In other words, the A’s didn’t sign any aging veterans to contracts that might wind up hurting the club at the end of the deal.

Now Billy Beane (not Sandy Alderson) did all those deals (or chose to let those players go). But Billy has been quoted as remembering back to the mid-90’s and sitting in a cab with Alderson where the two of them lamented a long-term contract they had just signed to retain one of their own aging vets. If I remember that article correctly, Sandy and Billy decided to re-sign the unnamed player between the ’92 & ’93 seasons. The A’s won 96 games in 1992. The A’s averaged 67 wins over the next 6 seasons before winning 87 in 1999 and 91 in 2000. The A’s haven’t won fewer than 91 since. And they have averaged over 96.5 wins the last 5 years.

And Alderson is the man that trained Billy Beane.

Can you tell I’m excited about the Padres’ future and Alderson’s role therein?

***

Switching gears…

Brian Lawrence’s line from Tuesday night:

8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR 98 pitches

B-Law’s performance wasn’t nearly what Peavy’s was Monday night. But it was effective. And a win is a win.

If I’m going to nitpick – I’m still worried about B-Law’s declining strike-out rate and his declining ground-ball/fly-ball rate (tonight: 10 ground-ball outs / 12 fly-ball outs).

Not to sound like all I can do is complain, but if Sean Burroughs would just incorporate his legs into his swing…

I just noticed one last thing so we can end this on a positive note. The first four Padre hitters (Roberts, Loretta, Giles, Nevin) combined for one hit (Nevin) and one walk (Roberts) in 15 AB – and we still won! You love getting a victory when your big dogs essentially took the night off.

Moores' "Most Significan Signing"

In what can only be described as “huge,” The Padres signed Sandy Alderson to be their new CEO.

Some quotes from the above linked article by Barry M. Bloom:

“The future of Bochy and Towers in the organization will be up to Alderson, Moores said, although he doesn't expect any immediate changes.”

“I think this is our most significant signing in the 11 years I've owned the team," said John Moores.

Keep in mind; Alderson helped Billy Beane become what he is as a GM. As a player, Beane was a huge disappointment, a “can’t miss prospect” who missed.

I’m causiously optimistic that the Padres will take a decidedly more statistically-oriented approach to how the team is managed (by “managed” I don’t mean on the field, but more in roster construction, etc.).

I’ll have more later.

Roberts & Peavy Show the Way

One game does not, a season make.

But dang Roberts is doing is his best to prove me wrong.

Back on March 31st, I wrote:

I want Robert to excel and help the Padres win the division and go deep into the playoffs. And I expect Roberts to be exciting on the bath-paths… WHEN he’s in the lineup and IF he gets on base. I just fear that those two qualifiers won’t allow me to get excited about Roberts very often.

Roberts has already missed 12 games. So my “WHEN” comment still holds water. And Roberts can’t prove anything that we didn’t already know in one game; he’s fast. That said, Roberts looked great Monday night: 2-4 with a walk. And one hit was a speed-hit; a chopped grounder that Giants’ shortstop Omar Vizquel had to charge and by the time he got a handle, Roberts was safe.

I’m not ready to call Roberts’ acquisition a raving success, but I’m eager for an opportunity to eat crow. If Roberts helps lead this team to the playoffs I’ll be every bit as ecstatic about that as I would be if Klesko leads us there with a “Moneyball”-esque dream season of 100 BB and 40 HR.

On to Monday’s other gem…

Peavy’s line:

7.0 IP, 6 H 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO, 1 HR, 93 pitches

Do you want to know how to identify a truly dominant pitching performance when you see one?

Here are the indicators:

1. More strikeouts than innings pitched
2. Fewer than 1 BB per every 3 SO
3. Fewer hits than innings pitched
4. Two or fewer runs allowed
5. Zero home runs allowed
6. Seven+ innings pitched
7. Fewer than 110 pitches thrown

Check, check, check, check, mmm, check, and check.

Seriously though, the only blemish was one bases-empty long ball to Lance Niekro in the 6th inning.

Peavy is finally getting the attention he deserves. With all apologies to Prior, Zambrano, the Marlins’ threesome, Peavy might be the most dominant young starter in the National League. He even gets up for the big games. I’m not sure I’d take Johan Santana over Peavy if I had a big game and needed a win. And if you know me, you know how big of a Santana fan I am (Santana is two years older than Peavy, how good will Peavy be in two years?).

It’s late, I’m out – night!

Paul good, John bad

“The Los Angeles Dodgers have blitzed to the best record in baseball, even while six of their players languish on the disabled list.” That was such a good opening line to an article; I decided it should open mine as well. Brian Hiro wrote the quote in an article for the North County Times.

One has to now wonder just how good the Dodgers are. They should get the best closer, Erik Gagne in baseball back at some point this season (though reading ESPN’s coverage on the injury caused me to speculate about Tommy John surgery). And there are also concerns that Jayson Werth’s wrist injury is more severe than what was originally thought. Brad Penny however, is on much faster return schedule. He is to make a “rehab” start in Las Vegas tomorrow (Monday) before rejoining the team and the rotation on the weekend in Colorado.

So the best team in baseball is missing three regulars (though Werth is not really an impact player) and they already have a 3 game in the West?

Will all the old-school “How many years did he play baseball?” – yes, Randy Jones, I’m talking to you, talking heads please stand up and give Paul DePodesta his due.

***

Speaking of old-school talking heads, John Kruk spoke again – I guess that’s saying enough, but since you all don’t know what I’m talking about I’ll tell the whole story.

Let’s look at the following pitching line from Sunday:

9.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO, 1 HR, 105 pitches

Is there anything out of the ordinary or “wrong” with that line? No, it’s a great pitching performance – by A.J. Burnett by the way.

John Kruk whined that managers should take the kid-gloves off and let pitchers finish what the started. He said (I’ll paraphrase), “See what happens when you let a pitcher pitch.”

A.J. Burnett was brilliant. Great game kid! But Kruk argued that Burnett that got to 105 pitches because he finished the game rather than he finished the game because he had thrown few enough pitches to keep himself around 100 and in line to finish the game. Kruk is an idiot.

Burnett had a great a game because he didn’t walk too many hitters and because he only gave up four hits. Had he walked a bunch of guys or given up more hits his pitch-count would have been up, he would have tired, and someone else would have had to finish the game.

Padres Get Run Down... and Over

Last Sunday I wrote that the Dodgers scared me. I write this just minutes after the Dodgers wrapped up the second game of the three game series (both Dodger wins) 8-3. I’m numb. I don’t know what to write.

I feel vindicated to see the Dodgers jump out to a fast start – if the Dodgers weakened themselves this offseason, and if you had to have baseball experience to know what to look for in building a team how did Paul DePodesta build what’s performing like a good team (the Dodgers are off to a 8-2 start)?

At the same time, to say I feel vindicated is kind of like the Prophet Jeremiah saying, “I told you so,” as his country was being overrun by its enemies. Being right feels hollow, I want the Padres to win.

What are the odds? How many Major League shortstops never break a finger in their career? Khalil Greene has now broken one in two consecutive regular season months. In their Channel 4 telecast, Matt Vasgersain and Mark Grant speculated that we will see a lot more of Jessie Garcia. Hot Spring Training start or not, that doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy feeling.

Back to Saturday’s game, there were two reasons why we lost. One, we gave up too many runs, and two, we didn’t score enough ourselves.

Seriously though, how about these stats (again, I have to credit the channel 4 guys for the first one – I went back and checked myself – but they get the tip of the cap for pointing it out on air):

Eaton started off only 11 of the 26 hitters he faced with strikes.
Loretta, Giles, Klesko, and Nevin combined for 6 hits (in 12 AB) – not bad. Burroughs, Hernandez, Nady, Blum, Eaton, Sweeney, and Ojeda combined for 0-20 – pathetic.

Eaton’s line:

6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR – 99 pitches

If we’re looking for silver linings, we can be pleased that Eaton didn’t give up any HR, and that despite starting off too few hitters with strikes he still got through 6 innings in 100 pitches, and that 2 of the 5 runs were unearned…

Nope, didn’t work, I’m still pissed.

***

It is looking more and more like Burroughs bat is not good enough for him to be a major league regular. I’ve often talked about my friend Paul in this site, and he came up with a good idea…

The Padres’ top prospect (according to Baseball America) is 2B Josh Barfield. When Barfield is ready, shift Loretta to third. Loretta actually has extensive experience at third. He played between 73 and 451 innings at 3B from 1996 to 2002 (expect in 2000 when he only played 91 games and 90 of them were at SS).

Sorry...

...about the lack of post. I had quartly award breakfasts on Thursday AM & Friday AM and was completely spent... Plus with the lack of Thursday game...

I'll post multiple entries this weekend.

Thanks for reading!

Double-Dippin' in Chi-town

What a day; lots of good and some bad too.

Should I be more excited about winning another road series or more disappointed that Lawrence was lit up like a Christmas tree?

Should I be more excited about Peavy’s dominance or more disappointed that Lawrence gave up 6 two-strike hits to 13 hitters in the first two innings (including a double and a home run)?

Should I be more excited about Nady’s combined 5 for 8 or disappointed with Nevin’s 1 for 8?

The reality is, I can’t complain too much when we go into the Windy City and take 2 out of 3 and not just beat, but beat up on, one of the Wood-Prior twin aces.

Any John Maxwell fans out there? I’m listening to some of his tapes (CDs) on being better at…. … at whatever you do. They’re really good stuff. Anyway, this morning I was driving to work and one of the things Maxwell said was that you have to constantly change. If you don’t change, you stagnate. And when you stagnate you’re forced to change anyway. The problem is that when you’re forced to change, you’re forced to do so at great pain.

Being the baseball nut that I am, as I heard that, I couldn’t help but wonder if Billy Beane was a John Maxwell fan. This last off-season Billy changed the make-up of the A’s before he was forced to do so. His preemptive strike was a necessary one. And Oakland fans will enjoy far more combined wins the current team over the next three years than they would have if Billy had kept Hudson and Mulder for this season.

I say all that because I wonder if we should have traded Brian Lawrence this past off-season.

Let’s look at the numbers:

2001 114.2 IP, 107 H, 53 R, 44 ER, 10 HR, 34 BB, 84 SO
2002 210.o IP, 230 H, 97 R, 86 ER, 16 HR, 52 BB, 149 SO
2003 210.2 IP, 206 H, 106 R, 98 ER, 27 HR, 57 BB, 116 SO
2004 203.0 IP, 226 H, 101 R, 93 ER, 26 HR, 55 BB, 121 SO

Furthermore, B-Law’s K/9 IP rate is too low. I’ve read that pitchers generally need to keep their K/9 rate above 5.5. In 2001 it was 6.59. In subsequent years it has been 6.39, 4.96, and 5.37. His K/BB rates (how many strikeouts per walk) also show a disturbing trend: in 2001 B-Law posted a 2.47 K/BB rate. Since then that rate has been: 2.87, 2.04, and 2.20.

One last discouraging note: Brian is known as a ground-ball pitcher. And he still gets more ground balls than fly balls. But as he has drifted back towards being neutral he has become less successful: in 2001 2.42 groundballs per fly ball, since then: 2.51, 1.61, and 1.81.

I’m wondering how much “pain” we’ll have to go through with B-Law before we’re forced to make a change.

On a more positive note, Peavy is the da’ bomb!

7 IP, 6 H, 2 R (both earned), 1 BB, 7 SO, 1 HR – 102 pitches

I know it’s early in the season, but having just looked at B-Law’s numbers, I wondered over to look at Peavy’s numbers as well.

Looking at rate-stats again:

K/9 K/BB #P/IP
2002 8.29 2.73 16.8
2003 7.21 1.90 16.6
2004 9.36 3.26 16.2
2005 11.20 5.67 15.2

So Peavy is throwing fewer pitches per inning, walking fewer hitters, and striking out more batters. Now that’s the definition of dominance!

3 Good Things So Far (Minor League Edition)

Under the heading, “Yeah, it’s early, but it’s still nice:”

1. Paul McAnulty is ‘en fuego.’ He has 8 hits and a 4/5 BB/SO ratio in 16 AB. Yes it’s early, but as many have said, “All he does is hit.”

2. Travis Chick was impressive in his one outing so far this year (Double-A):

5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R (earned), 2 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR

3. The highly regarded and disappointing Jared Wells struck out a batter per inning in his High-A 2005 debut:

6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R (earned), 0 BB, 6 SO, 1 HR

According to Kevin Goldstein (from my interview with him), “The Padres think there's a good chance that things could just 'click' for [Wells] and he'll take off.”

Last year, despite his supposedly electric arm, Wells struck out only 38 batters in 72 Cal League innings.

Was that the “click” we were waiting for, ever since we heard about Wells as the “top JuCo arm in Texas?”

***

I mentioned in Sunday evening’s post about projecting win totals based on expected wins from run differential. Baseball Prospectus has a “power ranking” based solely on that exercise so far this season. Encouragingly San Diego is ranked #6! …right behind the Dodgers…

Pitching & Roto

Welcome monseur,

On today’s menu we have pitching and some rotisserie… - I have a couple comments about Tim Redding, some thoughts on Eaton’s performance, and I had already been planning on talking about my Roto team and loyal reader Howard Lynch asked as well… Hey, it’s Biblical, “…ask and you shall receive.”

Union Tribune’s Bill Center wrote an article that had the following quote from Phil Nevin, "I think we've found ourselves a No. 5 starter.”

I know I moaned about Redding’s acquisition. O.k., I was wrong. Later, commenting with my friend Paul, a displaced San Diego living in New York City while keeping his anti-Yankee thoughts to himself, I pointed out that Redding might be our best bet to rest our bullpen.

Peavy is a decent bet, but coming back from the groin issue and with his still-young age, he’ll be babied a bit (as he should be). Eaton has a history of throwing a high pitch-per-inning count that often leads to an early exit. Lawrence is known as guy whose numbers often look bad if exceeds 90 pitches in an outing. And lastly Woody Williams is getting up there in age and doesn’t get as deep into games as he used to. – It’s a good thing we have a talented ‘pen.

***

Eaton’s line from Monday:

6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, O SO, 86 pitches

After the above concerns with Eaton and other pitchers, it was encouraging to see Eaton perform as he did today. He still has “ace” potential. We’ll continue to monitor his performances with a particularly critical eye.

***

I am in a pretty competitive, 10-team, AL-only (most of us are Padre fans, this way we don’t have to root against the Padres when “our” players are playing) roto keeper-league. We play with a $14.00 cap and bids are in nickel-increments.

We don’t play with “normal” roto leagues. We don’t have “active” and “inactive” players; we have a 25-man roster (14 hitters, 11 pitchers). Our league is a 5x5 league (again, not normal) using Batting Average, Home Runs, RBI, Runs, and Stolen Bases for offense and ERA, Wins, Innings Pitched, Saves, and Strike Outs for pitchers.

We also have a minor league draft portion to our league, so some of my players were drafted rather than acquired in the auction (players that came through my “farm” will be marked with an “F”) and are thus cheaper.

Here is my team:

"Rake Cru"

1B – Mark Teixiera - $0.30 – F
3B – Eric Chavez – 1.45
CI – Rob Quinlan – 0.10
2B – Mark Belhorn – 0.10
SS – Russ Adams – 0.15
MI – Jorge Cantu – 0.25
C1 – Rod Barajas – 0.05
C2 – Doug Mirabelli – 0.05
OF1 – Vladimir Guererro – 2.30
OF2 – Ichiro – 1.95
OF3 – Manny Ramirez – 2.00
OF4 – Rocco Baldelli – 0.55
OF5 – Joey Gathright – 0.05
UT – Calvin Pickering 0.50

P1 – Johan Santana – 1.25
P2 – Rich Harden – 0.30 – F
P3 – C.C. Sabathia – 1.20
P4 – Zach Grienke – 0.15 – F
P5 – Juan Cruz – 0.20
P6 – Jason Johnson – 0.25
P7 – Scott Kazmir – 0.50
P8 – Brandon League – 0.10
P9 – Pedro Astacio – 0.05
P10 – Shigetoshi Hasegawa – 0.05
P11 – Jason Davis – 0.05

I still have Felix Hernandez (RHP, SEA “King Felix”) and Matt Moses (3B, MIN) in my farm and 3 picks (out of 20; 13, 14 & 20) in this year’s minor league draft portion of our league.

I won the league last year (for the first time). Though I am obviously weak in Saves (I have none) I am in a good position to win again this year.

I'll try to post updates throughout the season on how the league is doing...

San Francisc-who?

“The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant!”

You know, I’m not so worried about the Giants. I’m worried about the Dodgers.

Baseball experts say that you cannot quantify defense. However, that is simply not true. What is true is that it is incredibly hard to quantify defense and that you cannot do it with the same precision that you can quantify hitting.

It is well chronicled that the best way to set up a team is to look at how many runs your offense should score and how many runs your pitching and defense should give up. Then when you’ve determined the run differential, you can reasonably predict your win-loss record.

The mathematics is complex, probably calculus even, but it is highly accurate. Paul DePodesta, the Dodgers GM, was trained under The Master, Billy Beane. It is a certainty that Paul knows, understands, and has even advanced the math to more accurately build a team that will repeat as NL West champions.

The Padres had a good chance to get off to a fast start. With their first two games on the road at the mile-high equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle, a sweep couldn’t be expected, you just hope the bounces even out and you escape with your dignity (the Padres did that and opened 1-1 against Colorado). Then with four games at home against the lowly Pirates, the Padres had an opportunity to get the season going.

The Padres needed to win the series. Bill Werndl of The Mighty 1090 said all last week that San Diego needed to sweep. Now if Bill were a little less dramatic and a little better at analyzing baseball, he would realize that expecting even a poor team to go 0-6 is a huge statistical improbability. Never the less, Bill said that after the Pirates opened 0-2 the Padres should be able to sweep the Bucs.

While I disagree with Bill on the importance of going 4-0 on the weekend instead of going 3-1, 2-2 was not an acceptable outcome.

A while back I read that teams who are 4 or more games up (in first place) by the end of April, in their division, win their division something like 90% of the time. Likewise, if a team is more than 4 games out of first by the end of April they are highly unlikely to win their division. Let’s not kid ourselves; losing just one game more than they should have against the Pirates was not an insignificant event.

Thankfully the Dodgers lost to the Diamondbacks today as well. So now we’re just one game out behind the evil blue team from up the 5. Oh yeah, the Giants are 4-2 as well.

X Gave It To You

Wow!

Sorry it’s been a few days since I’ve written. I’ve been quite busy. My mom was in town. My younger son just turned two on Thursday. And the rotisserie league I’m in had its auction night on Friday. Then, Becky (my wife) and I went to the Padres game Saturday night with our alumni association (Point Loma Nazarene University).

O.k., let’s talk baseball.

For all of you who have been echoing Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko; suggesting that Petco is too big, we only need to look at Saturday’s game to see how fair it really is.

In the second inning, as Ramon Hernandez flied out to the deep “death valley,” left field power ally, a fan sitting behind me complained, “See, [Petco] is just too big.”

Later in the game, Xavier Nady made two plays on fly balls deep into the corner that would have been Home Runs in smaller venues. Funny, that fan never complained on the size of the park when it helped save runs.

How huge has Xavier Nady been this year? Nady is currently hitting .444/.524/1.111 which adds up to a video game-esque 1.635 OPS. Sure it is a small (tiny) sample size but most encouragingly Nady has many walks as he does strikeouts (3 each).

That same fan that griped about Petco’s dimensions did poignantly point out that Bochy is going to have trouble keeping Nady out of the lineup.

We haven’t heard much talk about Dave Roberts of late. Nady is making that trade look extraneous and unnecessary.

***

Changing gears, I see/hear a lot of talk about the Padres-Pirates trade of Brian Giles for Jason Bay and Oliver Perez (and another minor league pitcher – in fact, here’s another story on the subject).

Don’t be surprised if one or both of Bay and Perez eventually end up back in San Diego. There was talk back in March about serious discontent in the Pirates clubhouse and it centered around Bay and Perez.

Jason Bay, the 2004 NL Rookie of the Year, and Oliver Perez, who led ML starters with 10.97 strikeouts per 9 innings, were easily the Pirates best two players last year. As a rookie (in Bay’s case) and a 2nd year player (in Perez’ case) neither player was eligible for arbitration.

Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement teams can renew players’ contracts essentially at whatever price they want (the player doesn’t have to sign the contract, but he can’t play anywhere else).

With the years Bay and Perez put up. Most people thought the two players would be in for substantial raises. That was not the case, however, as Perez is probably least-compensated 3rd year player in the Majors ($381,000) and Bay isn’t exactly rolling in it either ($355,000).

Other players in the Pirates organization openly asked what a player had to do to get a raise. The Pirates obviously hold both players “rights” for 3+ more years, Further “exploitation” of that sort could cause one or the other player to bolt ASAP. And both players have expressed fondness for the San Diego organization.

It’s late, I’m going to bed – the Padres are 3-2.

Break out the Bubbly!

Not to crash the party, but just like you couldn’t tell anything conclusively from the opening-day loss, you can’t read too much into tonight’s Toddler abusing (the Rockies have been called “Todd [Helton] and the Toddlers.” It is good, however, to get off the snide. The first win of the season can become a big hurdle, especially losing the first one the way the Padres did.

Thoughts from the game:

- Understatement of the day: Giles is off to hot start.

- The bullpen looks good (1 run in 4.1 innings).

- Eaton’s shortcoming has always been his inability to pitch deep into games. Tonight he threw 100 pitches and only pitched 4.2 innings.

- Anyone worried about Loretta? Me either, but he happens to have the lowest batting average among starters (.273).

- Dave who?

Thanks for all you readers who came over to read the Kevin Goldstein interview. Y'all come back now, ya hear…

PRD interviews Baseball America's Kevin Goldstein

Padres RunDown: Only Josh Barfield (#1) made Baseball America's top 100 list. How close were Freddy Guzman (#2) & George Kottaras (#3)?

Kevin Goldstein: I think they both would have made the top 150 if we went that deep, and I think Chick and Stauffer would have had a chance to make that group too.

PRD: Have people stopped saying that Barfield will eventually have to move to the OF? Or, looking at it another way, if we had another second baseman, does Barfield have the wheels to play CF or the bat to play a corner?

KG: He has the potential for enough bat to play a corner -- but he has nowhere near the speed or athleticism to play center. That said, he really improved last year defensively to the point where the Padres are convinced he can stay at second, and become adequate there.

PRD: Speaking of Josh's bat, was '03 a fluke year, or was Barfield's '04 numerical decent more a function of moving to pitching-favorable league (and out of a hitter-favorable one) and minor nagging injuries?

KG: I think there were a lot of factors and you smartly just named two of the bigger ones. I do think there are some positives to find in his '04 season as well. He went to a much tougher league for HRs and hit a career high 18, and continued to be just unconscious in the clutch. He did get frustrated at times during the year and pressed and got pull happy, but all the raw skills are still there. I think he'll have a big year now that he's finally healthy.

PRD: One last Barfield question, not a second baseman, but when I see Barfield, I think of former-Padre Jay Payton. Not the shell of Jay that was often injured, but the star he was supposed to become. Am I onto something or on something?

KG: …A little of both maybe. Barfield is bigger physically, and has more natural power (and also strikes out much more). Payton was/is more athletic and made/makes much more consistent contact.

PRD: I know you're a big Freddy Guzman fan, are you at all put-off by his poor showing in San Diego last summer? Should Padre fans still be high on him?

KG: I think so. He was overmatched in the majors during his first go around. His biggest weakness is trying to do too much at times offensively instead of just trying to get on base to use his speed. When he [tries to do too much], he really expands his strike zone, and that's what happened. He has special speed and when he's playing within himself, he knows how to take a walk -- and that's more rare than one might think.

PRD: Speaking of Guzman, Juan Pierre?

KG: I'm just not a big comp fan, but it a perfect world -- if everything works out. Yes. But Pierre has just such fantastic baseball instincts; it's hard to compare them.

PRD: I can appreciate that, but lacking a scouting background, its often the easiest way for me to think about them…

In an organization that rates as poorly as San Diego's, your comment about Towers' heist of Travis Chick (#4) from Florida suggest he could be better than our #4. Talk about Chick; what should Padres fan expect from him?

KG: He could be better than four -- but we just don't have a long track record for him. He started the year coming out of the pen for Greensboro, so all we really have is one half of a season where he was legitimately lights-out. I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 1 or 2 next year, but we gotta play it safe a little because it was so out of nowhere.

PRD: I'm surprised that a Triple-A pitcher and Futures Game participant would be rated as lowly as Tim Stauffer was (#5). Has his stuff fallen off? I know he's not pitching at 90+ but he didn't look overmatched in the Futures Game and he's getting it done at every level.

KG: A common question. I just have yet to talk to a scout who really likes the guy as more than a grinder/innings-eater. His stuff is not what it was at Richmond. He has great makeup, excellent command and knows how to pitch and that should take him pretty far. You say he's getting in done at every level, and I say he gave up a hit per innings while striking about six per nine innings. When I'm ranking pitchers, I want to see dominance.

PRD: That’s a fair critique. Changing gears… I admitted earlier that San Diego doesn't have the best Minor League system. How did Christopher Kolkhorst miss the top 30?

KG: Well, first of all, we don't do these rankings in a vacuum. I talked to probably eight people with the Padres and another eight or so outside the organization when doing this, and the Gritman just didn't get a lot of support. It's very easy to see his OBP and get excited. That's a mistake. He does have wonderful plate discipline -- no doubt about it. But he's small, has no single plus tool, and is relegated to a corner. There's just no projection there at all. And I love the guy -- he has as much heart as anyone around, but just not enough tools. In 2003, the Rangers took a gutsy, gritty Rice outfielder named Dane Bubela. In his debut, he hit .323/.436/.498 and we got all sorts of email about not putting him in the Rangers top 30 (or even the top 10!). We said we didn't think he'd hit at the upper levels. Last year Bubela hit .251 in A-ball and hung them up. Kolkhorst is a better player than Dane Bubela, but I don't think he deserved to be in their top 30. I guess I'd ask you whom I should take out?

PRD: Um, well… uh… we could go with… no… how about… Next subject: Jared Wells (#15) is one of the harder throwers in the organization. How realistic is it to hope that he'll learn how to pitch? Or do we have another Dennis Tankersley (all raw talent no refined skill) on our hands?

KG: There's certainly hope. He's still raw, and has only 40 pro starts under his belt. And in a system with very few power arms, he's going to get every chance he needs. He's frustrating because his numbers just don't match his stuff. The Padres think there's a good chance that things could just 'click' for him and he'll take off.

PRD: You and I have previously talked about Grady Fuson. How much will he help the Padres (and in what capacity)? And should Chief Gayton be looking over his shoulder?

KG: don't think Chief should worry too much about Fuson, and I'm sure he'll embrace the assistance from one of the best scouting minds around. San Diego was a perfect fit for Fuson and he'll be able to just be a consultant really -- working with the scouting department leading up to the June draft and with the Player Development folks afterwards to assess the minor league system. I think it's a holding spot for him until he gets a (I think well-deserved) shot at a GM job somewhere.

PRD: Matt Bush (#5) now seems to be flying under the radar. You and I talked around draft time last year that he was a deserving top 10 pick, but not worthy of being #1 overall. With that said, is his prospect status hurt by prejudice that the Padres picked poorly? He still seems to have a ton of tools. You know me, I'm more of a stat-guy that a scout every day of the week and twice on Sundays. But I can't help but think of Orlando Cabrera (forgive me for another comp).

KG: Well first off, you can't judge/rank/assess minor league talent solely on stats - if you do that, you'll get burned every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

PRD: Touché!

KG: You really need to balance scouting and performance. Everyone has their own scale for how they balance them, but you can't just ignore one or the other. That said, when we rank prospects, we rank them based solely on what we think their ceiling is, combined with what we think their chance of reaching that ceiling is. So his being over-drafted played no role whatsoever in his ranking. I also think it's far too early to pop a comp on him. I think he has a chance to be a special defensive player who hits 6th or 7th in the lineup.

PRD: Sean Thompson doesn't seem to be on anyone's radar.

KG: He isn't? We've ranked him in our Padres top 10 for two years running.

PRD: True enough, but you don’t hear anyone talking about him when they discuss prospects. You indicated in your top-30 report on him that he doesn't have Major League velocity (86-89mph) and that he is prone to bouts of wildness. His walk rate is a dangerous 4.25/9 IP but his K rate is an impressive 10.24/9 IP. Do we have another Yusmeiro Petit on our hands?

KG: No you don't. You have a lefty with a great breaking ball. And now we're back to the scouting vs. stats argument.

PRD: Which is exactly why we bring a guy like you to come in. Any stathead with a slide-ruler can notice Thompson’s low-level dominance. We need scouts to tell us if it is for real.

KG: The first think I look at with a minor league pitcher is IP, BB, K. If the numbers are impressive, my next question is scouting based: "Ok, those numbers are good, how is he doing it?" Lefties with very good breaking balls (which Thompson's undoubtedly is) can pile up pretty hefty K rates in the low minors and even in AA/AAA. But it's hard to get by as a starter in the majors without at least an average fastball unless you are pretty special control/location/speed change wise.

PRD: Brad Baker (#9) has come a long way since his move to the pen. How close is he to San Diego? He is oft compared to Trevor Hoffman because of his home organization and his change-up. Is that a valid comparison? Does he have Trevor's upside?

KG: I think he's very close to pitching at the big league level, but if he had Trevor Hoffman's upside, he'd rank WAY higher. I think he's a setup guy. His changeup is fantastic, but the rest of his repertoire is not in Hoffman's league.

PRD: Paul McAnulty (#10) = Dan Johnson?

KG: The comp I used (maybe I like comps better than I think) in the book was Matt Stairs -- I'll stick with that.

PRD: It seems forever ago that Towers traded for Ben Johnson (#16). He has since fallen off most people radars, until this spring. Every time I hear about Ben I think about Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi. What are your thoughts?

KG: I think those are two guys who have both been all-stars, so that's awfully optimistic. That said, he took a major step forward, but will need to prove it's for real this year at Triple-A.

PRD: Fair enough, I guess I was thinking “Poor man’s Raul or Brian” I should have made that clearer…

Kevin, I was looking through the lower levels of the top 30 for a particular type of pitcher (a young one, frankly) who might have a chance of blossoming. Depressingly, I only came up with one name belonging to someone less than 20 years old, Fabian Jiminez (#19). Tell us about Fabian.

KG: Well, obviously, he's WAY under the radar. Looking purely at the numbers, one would see the 6.95 ERA in the AZL and write him off, but he was just 17 and adjusting to being in the states. When he was pitching in '03 in Venezuela, he caught more than one team's eye, and has already been asked about in trade talks. He's still VERY young, and he's all projection, but he's tall, long and already throws in the low 90s and generates a good amount of tilt on his breaking ball.

PRD: Any other young pitchers we should keep our eyes on (my readers specifically brought up David O’Hagan & Ben Krosschall)?

KG: Krosschell is an astute guess -- and the name I'd pick. He’s very raw, but already in the low 90s and plenty of room for projection. 2004 8th round pick Vern Sterry has good command and an excellent change and would be a safer pick if you're looking for the more polished type.

PRD: Again Kevin, thanks so much for taking the time to do this!

KG: Anytime.

---

Kevin has long been a great help to me as I have attempted to cover the Padres organization. Thanks again, Kev!

The Long-Ball Giveth, and the Long-Ball Taketh Away

Wow!

Sure the ending sucked, but while I’ll try to avoid sounding Pollyanna, there is a lot to be encouraged about from the game.

- Nady went 2-4 with 2 HR & 1 BB (reportedly one of the HRs was a Coors cheapie – but they all count)

- Giles & Nevin each hit HRs

- The team collected 8 BB

- Linebrink & Otsuka both look to be the stalwarts they were last season

- Every position player got a hit and offense as a whole collected 12 hits & 5 HR

And the game also showed some scary (but predictable) trends:

- A flyball pitcher, with a career ERA of 11.12 against Colorado, gave up 3 HR and 6 R in 3.1 IP in Colorado’s thin air – yes, Woody Williams

- A reliable reliever with a thin margin of error got torched for 4 runs including a HR in 2/3 of an inning – yes, Trevor Hoffman

Let’s hope most of Woody’s subsequent starts are in pitching-friendly San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. And let’s hope Hoffy’s opening-day blown save was just his normal 1 out of 10 (Trevor has a career .891 success rate in save opportunities).

After all that we must remember one important thing, you can’t conclusively learn ANYTHING from one game – especially the first one.

***

Chris Jenkins, of the San Diego Union Tribune, wrote a very appropriate article that appeared Sunday. While “…pitching and defense win championships and blah-blah-blah, it is abundantly clear what the Padres [need] to win an NL West Division title…”

Jenkins is very clearly indicating that the Padres’ bats will carry them season. While I don’t necessarily agree with that statement (I think the Padres have solid hitting, pitching, and infield defense with a below-average outfield defense), Jenkins contends that the saying “pitching and defense wins championships” is more cliché than fact.

Fuuu-Sonnn! Fuuu-Sonnn!

"I'd like to stay here as long as Kevin [Towers] wants me."

Music to my ears!

Those words are quoted from Grady Fuson in Brian Hiro’s April 1st article, “Fuson finds a perfect fit as Padres' opinion guy,” in the North County Times.

Grady did help build the Oakland A’s juggernaut, as Brian reported, and he also helped rebuild the Texas Rangers minor league system (Texas has one of the more underrated minor league systems in my opinion).

In the article, Hiro reports that Fuson will spend the next two months helping Chief Gayton, Padres’ Director of Scouting, prepare for the upcoming June draft. The Padres are saying that their 2003 draft was a disaster (my word, not theirs) and last year was less than optimal as well.

My fear is that Gayton will be less than receptive to Grady’s inputs. That Gayton will want to put his stamp on the team… I hope my fear is unfounded but Gayton hasn’t had the most stellar results the last three years. My fear also is that Gayton might be worried about losing his job to Fuson (which wouldn’t bother me – but that’s another story).

Look, all fear aside, Fuson is a HUGE impact to our front office decision-making team. It will be fun to watch how this all plays out for our Padres.