Thursday, March 31, 2005

The 80/20 Rule

For those who don’t know, I’m in sales. Or, I was… Now, I am a sales trainer for a major automotive dealership group here in San Diego County.

Two weeks ago I was at a sales seminar up in Orange County. In that seminar the presenter talked about an “80/20 rule.” To paraphrase, the reason 80 of the population is average (or worse) is that they can make a list of why they aren’t doing better and their name is not on that list.


When you put the responsibility for your future in your own hands, then you can go about fixing the things you need to fix that are holding you back; because they’re your fault anyway.

With that off my chest, Ryan Klesko is whining about Petco’s dimensions again.

The Long Run

Ok, sorry, I said I’d stop but I can’t help myself…

This morning I woke up and checked the web and read, “Roberts knows it's [the] long run that counts.”

So is Roberts saying:

- He knows the Padres shouldn’t have overspent on a guy with a .335 career on-base average?


- That Towers shouldn’t have over-valued one playoff stolen base (which was admittedly huge) by a guy who consistently makes too many outs (costing his team too many games)?

- And that the “long run” shows that Roberts has missed 35+ games in each of this three big league seasons?


Look, I like the Padres. I want Robert to excel and help the Padres win the division and go deep into the playoffs. And I expect Roberts to be exciting on the bath-paths… WHEN he’s in the lineup and IF he gets on base. I just fear that those two qualifiers won’t allow me to get excited about Roberts very often.

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Bochy Extension Botched?

I wasn’t going to talk about it. I didn’t want to. I didn’t feel it was worth wasting bandwidth for…

But then the story didn’t go away…

Tuesday (the 29th) I was driving home from work and I heard one of the Mighty 1090 radio hosts hyperventilating about how ‘John Moores is evil’ because he put Bruce Bochy’s contract extension on hold.

I think Moores is being prudent. You should NEVER be eager to sign a player (or coach/manager) to an extension unless that person has proven to be a winning difference-maker (Phil Jackson, Joe Torres, guys like that).

In baseball the team’s General Manger is much more important than the team’s Manager. For the most part I like Towers (and Bochy for that matter), but if you’ve been reading my ‘blog since its inception, I can be critical of Towers. I think there are better GMs (quite a few in fact). I was a bit put off by the length of Towers’ extension back in 2002 (through the 2007 season).

All in all, I think the kerfuffle is a bit over-rated. If Bochy has a good season the Padres will reward him. If he doesn’t they’ll consider looking elsewhere.

One thing to remember, it’s cliché, but it’s true: the only constant in life, is change. After a 2003 trip to the ALCS Boston players were trying to save Grady Little’s job as manager. After last year’s Curse-ending World Series win the question is, “Grady who?”

Let’s not get so wrapped around ‘keeping’ Bochy until we do see what the team does this year.

In other news the Padres beat San Diego State tonight 6-0 – as they should.

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Sometimes I Hate Being Right

So now it looks like Dave Roberts will start the season on the DL…

Quoting Kevin Towers on Roberts’ injury, from an article on SignOnSanDiego.com, "I don't want it to be lingering for the whole season."

Yeah. Well, I don’t want Roberts lingering on the DL for the whole season.

I’ve already covered the fact that I felt Towers overspent to get Roberts. He even admits as much but says that Roberts was worth it. I’m guessing Roberts would have been non-tendered by the Red Sox and could have been had cheaply. But no, we traded a solid (not spectacular, ‘solid’) minor league pitcher, David Pauley, plus cash. Sorry, I’ll stop.

I’m working on that Kevin Goldstein interview, I’ll write more tomorrow.

Monday, March 28, 2005

Gomez Reports on Bonds

According to Pedro Gomez on ESPN’s “Baseball Tonight” (March 28, 2005), the Giants will likely be without the services of Barry Bond for 6 to 8 weeks. Gomez opined that Barry would probably return in mid-to-late May or perhaps the beginning of June. There is, according to Gomez, no official timetable for Barry’s return.

The Padres host San Francisco for two games in April (18-19) and visit the Giants for 6 during that time frame (April 25, 16, & 27, & May 27, 28, & 29). The Padres need to get a serious leg up in those games against the Bond-less Giants.

Since I commented earlier about the trade (my stance has since softened – ouch! Based my own headline, what does that make me? Pink?) this will be a short one tonight…

Red Over Redding Trade

According to MLB.com, the Padres acquired Tim Redding, formally of the Houston Astros, for minor league catcher Humberto Quitero.

A couple years ago a team had its opening day 5-man rotation start every game that season for that particular club. I don’t remember which team it was, but it was a significant event. It was significant, because pitchers get hurt. Like their battery-mates, and more any other position player, catchers are also frequently injured.

On March 16th I argued that it would be best in May won the starting job and if we could keep Stauffer in the minors. I argued that May should pitch the whole year ONLY if he healthy AND effective. AND I argued that Stauffer should be brought up to the big league club as the 2nd replacement behind Justin Germano.

The fact is, the Padres have some pitching depth in the minors and in reality Quitero was their catching depth (and probably one of the better 3rd catchers on anyone’s 40 man roster).

So last night Kevin Towers went out and eliminated our catching depth to get a journeyman pitcher to keep the 5th starter chair warm for Tim Stauffer until he’s ready in late May. Meanwhile, we’ll with all 40 spots on the 40-man roster full, the Padres will need to put someone on waivers the minute we have a catcher go down…

One last thing, the Padres’ best long-term catching prospect in the minors is George Kottaras. Trading Quintero probably ensures that the Padres will re-sign Ramon Hernandez to man the position until Kottaras is ready.

Once again, I think Towers overspent.

Sunday, March 27, 2005

"Bounty" on the Farm?

First, don’t forget that I’m requesting questions to pose to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball America; Kevin has agreed to an interview with PRD. – Go to the comments section under the “Questions Please” entry.

I was reading through my normal rotation of websites and I saw the following headline, “Bounty on the Farm.” Now thankfully I was finished with my morning coffee cause I have yet to figure out how to clean a laptop screen.

Anyway, having seen the title, I was expecting a ‘homer’-istic take about how loaded our minor league system was. Tom Krasovic, the writer, was thankfully taking a different approach. He indicated that we should be proud that our team has recently put the following regulars into the bigs:

Jason Bartlett, SS, Twins
Sean Burroughs, 3B
Adam Eaton, RHP
Khalil Greene, SS
Brian Lawrence, RHP
Rodrigo Lopez, RHP, Orioles
Xavier Nady, OF/3B
Jake Peavy, RHP
Oliver Perez, LHP, Pirates

While that is encouraging, it is also discouraging because so few of the position players have become impact players (though Nady could become one and Burroughs still could become an effective hitter). Only Khalil Greene, it could be argued, is an impact player. I think it’s too early to say call Khalil an impact player; let’s wait until he does it again – though admittedly – I think he will.

Also, I have a hard time including Lopez in that list. Bartlett and Perez were both guys we liked but traded. Lopez was cut and became effective after leaving the organization.

Josh Barfield, Freddy Guzman, George Kottaras, Travis Chick, and Tim Stauffer (Baseball America’s top 5 Padre prospects) each have a decent shot at becoming solid Major League regulars. But Towers says, “Right now, most of our talent is at the upper levels. Our two best minor league clubs probably will be at Double-A and Triple-A…” Which scares me because those teams are not bursting with impact players.

For a minute there, I thought Krasovic was talking about this kind of Bounty. But then maybe I would finally be able to clean my laptop screen.

Saturday, March 26, 2005

Questions Please!

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball America has agreed to do a Padres’ prospect interview with me for the website.

I am collecting questions for that interview.

It won't be an "All Questions Answered" interview, so I make no promises of using all the questions, but I would love to have more minds in the process.

Thanks.

Please submit questions into the “Comments” section.

Friday, March 25, 2005

Stat-a-licious

I wasn’t planning on writing until Sunday. I found out last time I was writing regularly that you all didn’t visit the site very much on weekends. However, I found an article on SignOnSanDiego.com that I had to mention.

A few words about OPS: It's a handy tool, says Padres superscout Grady Fuson, who has worked for the Texas Rangers and the statistically trail-blazing Oakland Athletics.

"Without a doubt, I think that's a statistic that holds up," Fuson said yesterday, before studying the Padres and Angels at Peoria Stadium. "You look at guys that have consistency with those numbers. It's like anything else – there's other things you look at statistically. But with OPS you get 8 and above, you're doing OK; you get 9s, you're doing great."

Oh really? We didn’t know…

If you want even better descriptions of a hitter’s offensive ability, break it down into Batting Average/On-base Average/Slugging. This shows the make-up of a player’s OPS and shows the hitter’s ‘swing-for-contact’ ability.

***

I wrote this with an almost condescending attitude. But I do want to say that it is good that the Padres are taking note of these kinds of things. I have to say I am not surprised the Padres look at this stuff, but I am surprised that the Union Tribune people are aware of it.

Shake hands and come out fighting...

O.K. I don't think my title really has that much to do with the content, but I liked it.

First of all, I have to admit, fighting in baseball doesn’t bother me much. People who say, “fighting doesn’t resolve anything” are often wrong. How many of us, when we were kids, did get into a fight, and then became friends with the person we fought with…? I think Major League Baseball steps in too frequently trying to police beanings and knock-down pitches when the best form of policing is the knowledge that if you bean people, your team will get beaned back and if it goes too far there will be a base-brawl.

With that off my chest… I love this! Athletes ARE role models.

Thursday, March 24, 2005

Klesko

Bob Schlegel of MLB.com has an article posted Thursday about Ryan Klesko, Ryan’s health, and Ryan’s importance to the Padres’ chances this year. A while back (while thinking about putting my website back together) I wrote this and sent it to a friend.

***

Klesko's BA splits were essentially nil, his OBP split was .389 at home and .407 on the road. The big difference was his slugging split: .420 vs. .479...

But even that doesn't bother me too much (we know Petco is hard on lefties - well, we're pretty certain, this season should be a better barometer). What is encouraging is that his OPS totals by month are:

April - .744
May - .644
June - .698
July - .874
August - .845
Sept. - 1.077
TOTAL = .847

In his last three months he hit 8, 7, & 7 2Bs to go with 3, 2, & 3 HR respectively. With last year's 2nd half totals projected over the whole season it would work out 13 HR & 36 2B. He only had 403 ABs last season (I projected his 2nd half totals in 249 AB into his season total of 403 AB). If he keeps up his power 'rates' from the send half of last year and gets 550 ABs, he projects to have 18 HR & 49 2B.

That's not huge numbers, but I'd take it and expect to finish at or near the top of the standings.

***

Let me go a bit further…

Ryan’s career numbers are .283/.373/.515. Last season he hit .291/.399/.448. From 1999 through last year, he has had only one season where he failed to post a batting average above .280 and post on-base averages above .380 (in Ryan’s injury-shorted 2003 he hit .252/.354/.456). The last two years Ryan failed to post slugging “percentages” above .510. Before 2003, Ryan’s last sub-.510 slugging year was 1998.

If Ryan’s shoulder really is healthy, it would be reasonable to expect a .285/.390/.495 season. That is not a scientific projection. But if we allow for some regression (from career and/or recent plateau numbers) and also project some rebound towards career norms, I think its fairly reasonable to expect those kind of numbers.

By the way, Ryan posted the following yearly OPS totals:

1998 .832 @ 27 years old
1999 .908 @ 28
2000 .909 @ 29
2001 .923 @ 30
2002 .925 @ 31
2003 .810 @ 32
2004 .847 @ 33

His career OPS is .888

In case you’re feeling lazy and don’t want to do the math, I projected a .885 OPS for Ryan in 2005. I think that’s a pretty safe projection.

Wednesday, March 23, 2005

Home Town Discount?

Dang! Only 8 games in the first 3 months. Hoping to get off to an early Bonds-less start, the Padres have an unfortunately disportionte number of games against the Giants after the All Star break.

On a different note…

Brian Hiro is quickly becoming my favorite Padres beat writer. If you don’t have the North County Times on your daily reading list, shame on you.

Hiro has an article today about players wanting to play for the Padres and about guys giving up some money or seemingly “better” offers to play here.

I don’t want to presume that Hiro’s article isn’t accurate, but if it is accurate, then why don’t we see more free agents sign here (when we do pursue them)? I’m guessing there is some reason here that I’m unaware of, but either way it’s not comforting.

Ugh. It’s not that late, but I’m toast! G’nite.

Tuesday, March 22, 2005

Bonds & Hyzdu - Fo Shizzu

It’s late and I’m tired. Geoff Young, of Ducksnorts.com fame has a good write-up over at Baseball Think Factory about the Padres. (Ha! If you’ve found me, you’ve probably already seen Baseball Think Factory….)

I wrote last night that the Padres (and Dodgers too) now have significantly high likelihoods of winning the NL West. With Barry Bonds out until mid-season and contemplating retirement, the Giants are a pretty poor team. – I don’t have a link, but my friend Paul Reams told me that Baseball Prospectus is calling the Bonds-less Giants team one of the 5 worst teams in baseball… If that’s true, wow.

In other news the Padres traded reliever Blain Neal to Boston for Adam Hyzdu. Adam may be a classic 4-A player or he could be another Jason Bay (late-bloomer). He’s 33 but he did hit .301/.413/.568 with 33 2B & 29 HR in 129 AAA games (International League). He has played 190 Major League games and hasn’t faired well, but I’m willing to bet that if he gets to log significant playing time, he wouldn’t embarrass himself.

Blain on the other hand wasn’t likely to make the bullpen and he would have been exposed to waivers. With this trade, we didn’t lose him for nothing.

I’ll write more tomorrow.

Please Comment!

One of the great new features on blogs is the comment-ability. At the end of each post is link to a "comment" section. If you like, dislike, or have any questions about anything I've written, please feel free to leave a comment.

Monday, March 21, 2005

This & That

Tom Krasovic reported Monday in the Union Tribune that Padres Manager Bruce Bochy is thinking about starting Xavier Nady at 3B for the season opener. Now be certain you are reading this (or that you read that) correctly, X will not be the every-day starter, at least, not yet. Sean Burroughs will be the starter. However, in a lineup that already has three left-handed hitters in the outfield (without clear platoon possibilities) removing Sean’s 4th left-handed bat in favor of X’s right-handed bat makes sense against Colorado’s Opening Day starter, lefty hurler, Joe Kennedy.

In the article Krasovic quotes Bochy, "We still think a lot of Sean Burroughs.” Which is good – cause I do too (wink, wink – as if my opinion matters). Seriously though, Burroughs is a Gold Glove caliber defender at third but his bat has yet to come around as hoped. I don’t think he has been as bad as his reputation deserves (.298/.348/.365 in 2004 – we’ll celebrate if Dave Roberts posts those first two parts of the equation), but he has certainly struggled (that slugging percentage is brutal). Presumably next year we will see Nady and Burroughs in the same everyday lineup, unless Burroughs plays his way out it.

Changing subjects, I need to comment on Peter Gammons’ latest.

Gammons quotes Giants manager, Felipe Alou, “I think we're better prepared [this season] to survive a few weeks without Barry than in the past."

That’s not much better than saying an “11” is better than a “10.” Yeah, Felipe, but not much better…

The Padres could win the NL West with a fast start. Since Barry really wants to challenge himself. He’ll spot the division 30-40 games and try to help his team catch up before the playoffs. I think the NL West is a three horse race (Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco). And San Francisco is now in a hole having lost its biggest advantage.

This is classic (quoting at length):


Much has been made of the age of this Giants team, which with Bonds in the lineup averages 36.5 years old.

"The age sounds high, but I don't think we are old players," said center fielder Marquis Grissom. "We're experienced. We won't make a lot of mistakes, and there are a lot of guys here who know how to win. We didn't have a Moises Alou before. Think about what he means."

“There are a lot of guys here who know how to win.” Yeah, sign up to hit on a team with Barry Bond in the lineup. …And what will you all do without Barry in the lineup?

Marquis, sorry to break this to you, but it’s a statistical fact, players peak at 27-8. You’re old. Removing Barry from the lineup makes the team younger but not better. Marquis, Barry’s a god, you’re not.

“Giants owner Peter Magowan believes his team has four players – Feliz, Deivi Cruz, Tucker and Yorvit Torrealba – ‘Who could start for many other teams.’” …like Kansas City, Colorado, Cincinnati, Washington, Toronto… The reality is Magowan does have four players who could start for a lot teams: Barry, Moises Alou, Jason Schmidt, and Armando Benitez.

One other unrelated tidbit, if Texas does cut Chan Ho Park, the Padres should make a run at signing him. He’s showing glimpses of what he once was, and pitching in San Diego and without the DH would be a boon to his efforts (keep in mind, not only is San Diego a pitchers park, but so is Los Angeles and San Francisco, two of our four most common ‘away’ parks).

Saturday, March 19, 2005

Trade Rumor

I was listening to the Mighty 1090 as I was driving home from a sales seminar in Newport Beach on Friday. Billy Werndl reported that the Texas Rangers were looking for starting pitching and dangling Laynce Nix as the bait.

Additionally, I was talking to one of my best friends, Paul Reams, and he indicated that the Dayton Daily News was reporting that Cinci was also looking for starting pitching and that Wily Mo Pena was their bait.

“There are rumblings in the scouting fraternity that the Reds might part with Pena for a starting pitcher, especially with the pitching staff stumbling along so far this spring, [with] a 7.05 earned run average.”

In case you’re worried about defense, according to “Baseball Prospectus 2005” Dave Roberts, Laynce Nix, and Wiley Mo Pena all rate about the same as defensive centerfielders.

Things to keep in mind:

1. Due to injuries, Roberts hasn’t played much this spring and injuries have dogged him most of his career.

2. Roberts hasn’t swung the bat well when he’s been in the line-up. – I don’t generally believe players should make or lose playing time based on their Spring Training results but if we were hoping for improvement and we don’t see it. It is reasonable to look elsewhere.

3. Maybe most importantly, Grady Fuson, Kevin Towers’ Special Assistant, has a history of raiding his former team for players he likes. Fuson is the former Director of Scouting and Player Development for the Texas Rangers.

Now, if the Padres were to make a trade for one of these players, what would it cost?

Good question. Since both teams are looking for starting pitching help. It would definitely require starting pitching heading back the other way. I’m guessing both teams would ask (maybe already have asked) for Tim Stauffer. Fat chance. More likely, the Padres would part with either Adam Eaton or Brian Lawrence. I’m not sure which one I’d rather part with, but both teams play in small ballparks and Eaton is a flyball pitcher. B-Law would be a more reasonable acquisition for each team. Plus Eaton isn’t locked up long-term where B-Law would is under contract through 2006 plus the contract has a team provision for an additional year. He has to look pretty tasty to both teams.

On a side-note, I mentioned that the ‘Wily Mo Pena’ lead came from my friend Paul. When I first started writing, Paul and I did a few “Peter & Paul on the Padres” columns. Paul recently contacted me and said he’d like to do some more of those. So in addition to the stuff I write on my own, we’ll be putting together some ‘Peter & Paul’ posts.

2005 Draft Preview

The more you read my stuff, the more you realize how much I love watching what’s coming. I still plan on breaking down games like I did two years ago, But you will also see the occasional ‘State of the Organization’ write-up such as this one. I have started to look at the Padres’ options for this year’s draft, and I’m excited - for three reasons.

First of all, I’m excited that we have Grady Fuson on our side. Baseball America, in their 2005 edition of the “Prospect Handbook,” graded our recent drafts as a “D” in 2003, “B+” in 2002 and 2001, and a “C” in 2000 (the 2004 draft won’t get a grade until next year). Adding Fuson to an already competent draft management staff should help significantly.

The second reason I’m excited, unlike last year, we still have our second round pick as well as a first round supplemental pick thanks to Boston signing David Wells. We also have Boston’s second round pick; in total we have 5 top-100 picks (well 4, we also have #102).

Thirdly, and maybe most important of all, this is a DEEP & talented draft. Last year Matt Bush, the #1 selection overall, was generally regarded as a top-10 talent, but he wasn’t (still isn’t) the caliber of some of the other top picks. Bush would quite possibly miss the top 20 in this draft. Bush is currently rated the #6 Padres prospect according to Baseball America.

Breaking it down – we have following top selections:

First round pick: #18 overall
First round Supplemental pick #35 (due to Boston signing Wells)
Second round pick #69 (the first pick in the second round is #52)*
Second round pick #78 (from Boston)
Third round pick #102

* Arizona has a conditional supplemental pick for not signing Stephen Drew (#50) and Anaheim has a conditional supplemental pick for not signing Jered Weaver (#51). If either player signs with their respective team one or both of those conditional supplemental picks could go away.

Now lets look a few players who have caught my eye for those selections (all draft projections are from Baseball America).

Stephen Head, 1B, Ole Miss. University – Generally regarded as having one of the better bats in the draft, called “sweet-swinging” by Baseball America, Stephen Head projects to go mid-first.

Henry Sanchez 1B, Mission Bay High, San Diego – Matt Bush’s teammate from last year reportedly swings a huge bat. His downside is that he is also, well… huge. According to Baseball America Sanchez is 6’3” 260 lbs. Prince Fielder (#7 overall in 2002) has shown that a body designed for “International Male” is not a requirement to be an effective hitter. Sanchez projects to be a late first round selection.

Ryan Braun, 3B, University of Miami – Quoting an AL scouting director, Baseball America wrote that, “Braun definitely comes with the bat potential." Ryan has absolutely crushed the ball so far this season. He should have the athleticism to play 3B; he played SS for Miami as a freshman and won “Freshman of Year.” In 22 games so far this season Ryan hit .457/.505/.815 with 8 2B & 7 HR. I e-mailed Will Kimmey of Baseball America about Braun and the possibility of him going in the first round. Will replied that it was certainly a realistic possibility and that, “He's better than Khalil Greene,” pointing out that Khalil was a first-round selection.

There are a lot of other players who will deserve consideration in and around where the Padres have their top 3 picks. These are just three names that have caught my attention as realistic picks for the Padres.

One last piece of analysis: while the Padres will probably take the top guy available on their draft board when they pick, when I look at the Padres’ organization, I see specific organizational needs for bats, especially at LF/RF 1B & 3B.

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Stauffer 3rd?

Monday I criticized Padres GM Kevin Towers for the Dave Roberts deal. If I am willing to shovel criticism around, I need to be equally willing to offer praise.

I was listening to Coach John Kentera on the Mighty 1090 while I was driving home from work Tuesday night. A listener called in asking whom the Padres were going to use as their fifth starter. Coach Kentera replied that the Padres planned on using Darrell May as the fifth starter with Justin Germano and Tim Stauffer as the #1 and #2 options behind May or if anyone got hurt.

First off, I do not know for certain that Kentera’s depth chart is accurate. But I have heard other reports that echo this and as the caller asked her question I mentally answered it the same way he did.

Additionally, let me say I am probably Tim Stauffer’s biggest fan. That said, I LOVE that he’s 3rd on that depth chart.

Tim Stauffer is 22 years old. He will turn 23 on June 2nd this year, thus his “playing age” is 23 (a player’s “playing age” is their age on July 1st – I think – I know the date is in July).

Now let’s assume the Padres get lucky and all 5 starters pitch brilliantly and stay healthy all the way to playoffs and we never need Germano or Stauffer to make a spot-start. Then, next year-2006, we’ll have a 24-year-old potential rotation mainstay beginning his MLB service clock (or even if he makes a September appearance, Stauffer will still be a year-1 guy). The Padres will hold Tim’s rights through 29 or maybe even 30. Players typically peak at 27-8 years old.

It is, admittedly, unlikely that all of our starters will avoid trips to the Disabled List. But let’s not get in a hurry to start Stauffer’s MLB service clock. And if we only need one guy to make a spot-start, use Germano. His service clock has already started and he is already on the Padres 40 man roster.

Let’s look at this from a different angle.

I was looking at Oakland’s pitching staff. Ken Macha, Oakland’s manager, was quoted on MLB.com (I’ll paraphrase) that the ideal rotation for Oakland is: Zito, Harden, Haren, Blanton, and Meyer. Barry Zito is 27 years old. Second year pitcher, Danny Haren is 24. Fellow second-year guy, Joe Blanton is also 24. Rookie-to-be Dan Meyer is 23. Third-year future ace Rich Harden is the youngest of the bunch, also 23.

While Oakland didn’t error in bringing Rich up when they did; he was clearly ready. Doing so cost them the rights to what will likely be his best years. Rich, who has a November birthday, will be free-agent eligible right around his 27th or 28th birthday (whether Harden’s half year in 2002 will count as full year will not be determined until that date is closer).

I don’t want to get your hopes up. Baseball Prospectus says Harden will be one of the 10 best pitchers in the AL this year, they say Tim Stauffer profiles as a, “back of the rotation guy” with “room for growth.”

I think this is pretty conservative. I see Stauffer profiling quite nicely as a #3. But next year we should expect to see the following rotation: Peavy, Williams, Eaton, Lawrence, Stauffer. Baseball America, looking further out at the prospects, projects the 2008 rotation as: Peavy, Eaton, Travis Chick, Stauffer, and Lawrence. Sounds good to me.

Tim Stauffer, third on the depth chart? Perfect!

Monday, March 14, 2005

Roberts?

First of all, I want to say it is GOOD to be back. I have been talking with friends, arguing with Billy Werndl (of the Mighty 1090), and generally driving my wife nuts while talking about the Padres (she doesn’t want to hear my analysis).

My first installment isn’t going to be that long but I wanted to get something off my chest…

Kevin Towers has talked about his ‘Woody Williams for Ray Lankford’ trade as being his worst deal as the Padres’ GM. However, his acquisition of Dave Roberts may end up trumping the Williams deal.

Think about it for a moment:

- The Padres traded a poor-performing outfielder, Jay Payton, with a supposedly bloated contract ($4m) but who has a decent offensive history.

- The Padres kicked in $2.65m to get the deal done.

- The Padres threw in a pitching prospect (not a top one, but one that had performed well).

Of those last two I could see offering Boston one or the other. But remember the newest axiom is roster-assembly is retaining financial flexibility. The rule of thumb is that if you are unloading a bad contract you pitch in money or prospects. NOT BOTH! Especially since Towers was not making another ‘Brian Giles’ type deal; bringing in an upper-tier offensive player.

Towers acquired an outfielder who relies on speed, who has never played more than 127 games in a season – mostly because of leg injuries, who has a career on-base average of .335 (Roberts notched only one season with a .350+ OBA - .353 in 2002).

And maybe most disconcerting, is the decision to make Roberts the leadoff hitter. We want a career .335 on-base guy batting leadoff?

Now, do not make the mistake of assuming that I do not like Roberts. He has a lot of attributes that are VERY desirable:

- He plays a good defensive centerfield – which we need at PETCO.

- His career BB/SO total is 141/158.

- His career stolen base/caught stealing totals are 135/32 (Roberts has been successful 80.8% of his attempts – the break-even point for stolen base attempts is roughly 70-75%).

So Roberts does have redeemable qualities.

One last thing, last year en route to their first World Series title in 86 years, Boston made a big trade. They traded away SS Nomar Garciapara for the lesser-hitting but better fielding Orlando Caberra and slick-fielding Doug M… at first base. Boston GM, Theo Epstein, deduced that Nomar’s lack of glove would inhibit the Red Sox from winning a world championship. Whether or not Boston would have won with Nomar, we don’t know. But it in the same fashion, Kevin Towers decided that San Diego needed more defensive range in CF. While I don’t disagree, I just think we over-spent to get Roberts.

The most basic building block in business is “buy low, sell high.” Dave Roberts had just stolen a base in the playoffs that was very “money” and did it with the whole baseball world watching. Payton on the other hand had one of his worst offensive season in his career while playing centerfield for the first time in a long time.

The Padres drove down the value of Payton then flipped him for an over-priced shiny role player whose team had just won the World Series. Kevin bought high and sold low.


Again I don’t have a problem acquiring a player like Roberts. I just think Theo Epstein played Kevin Towers like a chump. As a Padres fan that scares me.